From the New York Times:
The number of Americans seeking Social Security disability benefits is plunging, a startling reversal of a decades-old trend that threatened the program’s solvency. It is the latest evidence of a stronger economy pulling people back into the job market or preventing workers from being sidelined in the first place.
The drop is so significant that the agency has revised its estimates of how long the program will continue to be financially secure. This month, the government announced that the program would not run out of money until 2032, four years later than its previous estimate last year. Two years ago, the government had warned that the funds might be depleted by 2023.
In addition to stronger economic growth, the drop reflects newly tightened standards for eligibility and the increasing number of baby boomers who are leaving the program because they have become eligible for Social Security retirement benefits and Medicare. ...
9 comments:
Imagine the surprise! A good economy helps reduce disability!
Certain doctors and lawyers and advocates must be double checking their expectations. Do they want the government to fund a study on how a good economy can cure certain disabilities? How can that be? Medical science wants to know!
Except the economy doesn't always stay good. There's always a crash. When the economy goes bad and recession hits, the marginal workers are always the first to lose their jobs, and receipts will go up again.
The worst thing SSA could do would be to say "A-ha! We've cured the backlog!" ... and not fill in the gaping holes that OHO has with its hemorrhaging staff situation. This is the time to staff up, to get ready for the next spike in claims.
Because one is ocming.
This is no surprise as it has always been noted that the number of claims will rise in a poor economy and decrease in a good economy. The other aspects to look at is the economic affect on the number of allowances, does the percentage of allowances change with the economy as there may be a higher percentage since perhaps much of the decrease in claims comes from claims that would be denied, and also look at if there is an increase in workers on SSDI returning to work.
The economy is probably a factor, but not the only one. When those who might apply hear about someone like me... I waited 2 1/2 years for a hearing and was denied. Now, over 4 years with no end in sight. I have pain from my head to my toes. (Migraines, back, shoulders, hands, knees, feet). Long waits + disabled denied + better job markets = fewer applications. Throw in that the baby boomers have all passed 50 and in a couple years will be passed 55... Maybe the economy doesn't have THAT much to do with it.
Not as disabled as they thought they were.
The biggest factor I've seen in a semi-rural region is that there actually are a few employers with good hearts that will attempt to accommodate good employees as long as financially possible. Many of my clients worked for family businesses which helped support them. Once the economy turns bad, the businesses can no longer afford to keep any marginal workers aboard; just as Tim pointed out.
In reply to Anonymous 6:37 AM: Yes, research shows that allowance rates fall in recessions, and are lower in areas of relatively high unemployment. Check out the studies mentioned in https://www.cbpp.org/blog/disability-benefits-are-hard-to-get-even-in-recessions.
Pssst...1:35 thats because they are unemployed not disabled.
Post a Comment