The real answer: it depends. My sense is new admin will target regulatory agencies first (FDA, FCC, EPA), and mostly likely the IRS. Apart from the IRS, large cuts in federal workforce for these agencies will not have an impact on the average American in the next two years.
SSA is not top of mind for Elon and the project 2025 crew. And anyone with half a brain should know SSA/Medicare benefits are a third rail that cannot be significantly altered without massive political blowback. The risk/reward of degrading SSA as an customer facing agency is also not great.
That being said, we are dealing with unpredictable accelerationists, who are putting on a populist cloak in pursuit of an astoundingly regressive agenda (tea party on steroids). It is truly baffling to see working class people worshiping billionaire's like Elon, who are open about cutting entitlements, and implementing the largest austerity program in US history.
We’re long past the phase in which cuts to SSA programs are the third rail. We’re now in the phase where everyone assumes it won’t be there for them by the time they retire, or that they’ll already be dead by the time their benefits get cut, so why not let Elon and Trump destroy it all for the lulz? Especially if you get to watch them bully some ”queers“ and ”illegals“ in the process!
Executive Orders on federal sector bargaining units are likely to be renewed immediately, and survive challenge this time around. Return to offices looks likely under DOGE. As far as mass layoffs, that seems unlikely. But SSA has thousands of useless staff, at the GS-14, GS-15, and SES levels, who wouldn't be missed. Too many layers of management, poor leadership, and outdated computer systems don't help efficiency.
The only thing that (hopefully) saves SSA is that 96% of SSA employees are covered by AFGE and the Collective Bargaining Agreement doesn't end until 2029 The Republicans see the Return to Office as the final blow to kill SSA. After 30 years of tiny cuts (increases not matching inflation/workload), the Republicans recognize that a Return to Office will drive off a significant number of SSA's employees and cause the agency to collapse.
after more than 20 years I can say really things dont really change so much. We do our things, SSA does the things, it all happens the way it happens and nothing really changes, just gotta have the wisdom to know the difference!
@2:16 No doubt next year will be a sh*t show. But the question is whether SSA operations will be insulated from most of this. I do not see the connection between SSA operations and disastrous economic polices, unless it results in a government shutdown over debt ceiling nonsense.
The 900 page Project 2025 treatise was largely silent on SSA operations and benefit cuts. Maybe this was intentional, but I suspect they will opt for some type of benefit cut, like raising the retirement age. Privatizing SSA is non-starter given the public's distrust of Wall street (both left and right).
The Trump administration plans on doing some much-needed cleaning at Social Security. I imagine you could eliminate 50% of employees, especially DEI, management at headquarters, and policy. Then Elon can pay the hardworking field office workers even more and get more production. Just watch: Elon will do to SSA what he did to Twitter, and it will become the apple of the government's eye. I, for one, cheer these changes.
708pm the field is already understaffed and been cut to the bone. Cutting 50% will be disastrous to the agency to cut any more staff on the front lines
Donald Trump’s win could impact Social Security and Medicare, as while the ex-president has publicly vowed not to cut the benefits programs, experts have warned his policy proposals—including a tax cut on Social Security payments—could make the programs run out of cash, with an analysis projecting Trump’s policy agenda would deplete Social Security’s funds sooner than expected, in just SIX years.
@815 Don't worry Trump won't cut hardworking, apolitical field office employees. His hawks will target the overpaid policy wonks who do things like film O'Malley's videos and put out useless publications to the internal websites. You know exactly what I'm talking about. FO employees can look to make a lot more money provided they produce.
@957 Those same "experts" said Kamala's cutting of taxes on tips would be great but Trump's would destroy Social Security. Believe me, the program will be just fine.
Really sick of having to constantly respond to people like you who just spout nonsense in bad faith, but here goes: The HQ staff are only a tiny fraction of the agency’s staff. Far less than 50%. Less than 10% even. And no more than maybe 2 or 3 of those spend even more than a tiny fraction of their time on these fabled DEI initiatives you speak of. So while I am glad you’re optimistic, your optimism is premised on pure bulls@@t.
Has anyone paid attention to the FY25 budget proposals? If we get the House version we will have to furlough employees across the board and shutter FOs for up to four weeks.
@10:56. Trump and his brigade of idiots don’t believe there are any hard working federal employees. They assume all of them spend their days the way Trump spends his- lazily watching television and eating fast food from home.
Riiiight. No reason to think two idiot tech bros, both known to be heavy users of illicit drugs, and both of who are so lacking in maturity that they named their stupid outfit after a dumb Reddit meme, would ever do anything that might harm the government’s operations.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving! Remember that this blog has been a harbor for Chicken Little prophecy for decades and really nothing has happened. But if you find your joy in seeking doom, have fun. Personally I am in the mood for pie!!!!
Is this satire? Name a single republican that has talked about raising wages for federal workers. Certainly no one in MAGA world. The Heritage authors of Project 2025 want to dismantle the administrative state. The Government efficiency duo of Elon and Vivik have spoken openly about firing whole departments indiscriminately and making huge cuts to entitlement spending...why in the world would you think Trump cares about hard working federal employees?
And Trump also proposed eliminating taxes on SSA income--are you confusing that with taxes on tips? Because the SSA tax proposal would hasten the trust fund depletion by seven years--2027.
Finally, from a claimant representative perspective, O'Malley has done more than the last three Commissioners combined within his short tenure. Some of these changes reduce workloads on FO, State Agency, and payment center staff by providing more data to attorney reps. Many of us would be happy to take on more of the admin workload for our own clients if SSA simply trusted attorneys to do their jobs. The next step should be automated appointments of attorney representatives.
If I had a dime for every prophecy of agency collapse and total disarray posted here over the last say 15 or so years, I could buy a slice of pie for everyone getting a check from SSA. I would even be able to pay for the whipped cream! Guess what, the agency is still here and really not that much has changed. But dont let facts get in your way. Believe in what you want. Time for another slice!
You are right. The fact that it now takes about 8 times longer to get an initial or reconsideration decision than it did 15 years ago is a non-event that only liberal DimocRATS with Trump derangement syndrome would find noteworthy.
Glad things are still hunky-dory in your all-white suburb, but it’s been a death spiral out here in the real world.
One tried-and-true method of undermining Social Security is starving the program of administrative resources, a GOP hobby horse for years. "Social Security, today, is serving more customers than ever before with staffing levels Congress has reduced to 50-year lows," O'Malley told the House Appropriations Committee earlier this month.
The consequences have included wait times on the program's 800 number that ballooned to nearly an hour, O'Malley said. Of the average 7 million clients who called the number each month for advice or assistance, 4 million "hung up in frustration after waiting far too long."
The backlog of initial disability determinations reached a near-record of 1.2 million applicants awaiting a decision, some for more than a year. The program estimated that about 30,000 applicants died in 2023 while awaiting decisions.
I respectfully disagree. Obvious SSA benefit cuts that put grandmas and grandpas on the street and eating dog food would provoke an angry backlash. Quickest way for Republicans to blow it.
Several current federal employees told CNN they’re afraid their lives will be forever changed – including physically threatened – as Musk makes behind-the-scenes bureaucrats into personal targets. Others told CNN that the threat of being in Musk’s crosshairs might even drive them from their jobs entirely – achieving Musk’s smaller government goals without so much as a proper review.
“These tactics are aimed at sowing terror and fear at federal employees,” said Everett Kelley, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, which represents more than 800,000 of the 2.3 million civilian federal employees. “It’s intended to make them fearful that they will become afraid to speak up.”
If productive employees do their jobs they'll be fine. Some GS 14s and up may need to worry if they aren't very good. That's about as bad as it will get.
When I started at SSA about 20 years ago we had 999 day claims that took priority, that is to say claims that were 1000 days old or older. Havent seen those numbers since then, so I would say its better. Time from Initial to Hearing is about the same, used to wait for 18 months for a hearing with a 90 day turnaround on initials, but hey, you believe in what you want to believe boo.
28 comments:
The real answer: it depends. My sense is new admin will target regulatory agencies first (FDA, FCC, EPA), and mostly likely the IRS. Apart from the IRS, large cuts in federal workforce for these agencies will not have an impact on the average American in the next two years.
SSA is not top of mind for Elon and the project 2025 crew. And anyone with half a brain should know SSA/Medicare benefits are a third rail that cannot be significantly altered without massive political blowback. The risk/reward of degrading SSA as an customer facing agency is also not great.
That being said, we are dealing with unpredictable accelerationists, who are putting on a populist cloak in pursuit of an astoundingly regressive agenda (tea party on steroids). It is truly baffling to see working class people worshiping billionaire's like Elon, who are open about cutting entitlements, and implementing the largest austerity program in US history.
We’re long past the phase in which cuts to SSA programs are the third rail. We’re now in the phase where everyone assumes it won’t be there for them by the time they retire, or that they’ll already be dead by the time their benefits get cut, so why not let Elon and Trump destroy it all for the lulz? Especially if you get to watch them bully some ”queers“ and ”illegals“ in the process!
Executive Orders on federal sector bargaining units are likely to be renewed immediately, and survive challenge this time around. Return to offices looks likely under DOGE. As far as mass layoffs, that seems unlikely. But SSA has thousands of useless staff, at the GS-14, GS-15, and SES levels, who wouldn't be missed. Too many layers of management, poor leadership, and outdated computer systems don't help efficiency.
The only thing that (hopefully) saves SSA is that 96% of SSA employees are covered by AFGE and the Collective Bargaining Agreement doesn't end until 2029 The Republicans see the Return to Office as the final blow to kill SSA. After 30 years of tiny cuts (increases not matching inflation/workload), the Republicans recognize that a Return to Office will drive off a significant number of SSA's employees and cause the agency to collapse.
Major sh*t show next year. Not only actions upon government but also tariffs and deportation economics. A perfect storm if everything implemented.
If that happened, million and millions would be without income- unlikely!
after more than 20 years I can say really things dont really change so much. We do our things, SSA does the things, it all happens the way it happens and nothing really changes, just gotta have the wisdom to know the difference!
@2:16 No doubt next year will be a sh*t show. But the question is whether SSA operations will be insulated from most of this. I do not see the connection between SSA operations and disastrous economic polices, unless it results in a government shutdown over debt ceiling nonsense.
The 900 page Project 2025 treatise was largely silent on SSA operations and benefit cuts. Maybe this was intentional, but I suspect they will opt for some type of benefit cut, like raising the retirement age. Privatizing SSA is non-starter given the public's distrust of Wall street (both left and right).
The Trump administration plans on doing some much-needed cleaning at Social Security. I imagine you could eliminate 50% of employees, especially DEI, management at headquarters, and policy. Then Elon can pay the hardworking field office workers even more and get more production. Just watch: Elon will do to SSA what he did to Twitter, and it will become the apple of the government's eye. I, for one, cheer these changes.
708pm the field is already understaffed and been cut to the bone. Cutting 50% will be disastrous to the agency to cut any more staff on the front lines
I'm not going to keep my fingers crossed on those thoughts, but sure, that sounds good.
I don’t see a connection? On further review…
Donald Trump’s win could impact Social Security and Medicare, as while the ex-president has publicly vowed not to cut the benefits programs, experts have warned his policy proposals—including a tax cut on Social Security payments—could make the programs run out of cash, with an analysis projecting Trump’s policy agenda would deplete Social Security’s funds sooner than expected, in just SIX years.
@815 Don't worry Trump won't cut hardworking, apolitical field office employees. His hawks will target the overpaid policy wonks who do things like film O'Malley's videos and put out useless publications to the internal websites. You know exactly what I'm talking about. FO employees can look to make a lot more money provided they produce.
@957 Those same "experts" said Kamala's cutting of taxes on tips would be great but Trump's would destroy Social Security. Believe me, the program will be just fine.
Really sick of having to constantly respond to people like you who just spout nonsense in bad faith, but here goes: The HQ staff are only a tiny fraction of the agency’s staff. Far less than 50%. Less than 10% even. And no more than maybe 2 or 3 of those spend even more than a tiny fraction of their time on these fabled DEI initiatives you speak of. So while I am glad you’re optimistic, your optimism is premised on pure bulls@@t.
Has anyone paid attention to the FY25 budget proposals? If we get the House version we will have to furlough employees across the board and shutter FOs for up to four weeks.
@10:56. Trump and his brigade of idiots don’t believe there are any hard working federal employees. They assume all of them spend their days the way Trump spends his- lazily watching television and eating fast food from home.
Riiiight. No reason to think two idiot tech bros, both known to be heavy users of illicit drugs, and both of who are so lacking in maturity that they named their stupid outfit after a dumb Reddit meme, would ever do anything that might harm the government’s operations.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving! Remember that this blog has been a harbor for Chicken Little prophecy for decades and really nothing has happened. But if you find your joy in seeking doom, have fun. Personally I am in the mood for pie!!!!
Is this satire? Name a single republican that has talked about raising wages for federal workers. Certainly no one in MAGA world. The Heritage authors of Project 2025 want to dismantle the administrative state. The Government efficiency duo of Elon and Vivik have spoken openly about firing whole departments indiscriminately and making huge cuts to entitlement spending...why in the world would you think Trump cares about hard working federal employees?
And Trump also proposed eliminating taxes on SSA income--are you confusing that with taxes on tips? Because the SSA tax proposal would hasten the trust fund depletion by seven years--2027.
Finally, from a claimant representative perspective, O'Malley has done more than the last three Commissioners combined within his short tenure. Some of these changes reduce workloads on FO, State Agency, and payment center staff by providing more data to attorney reps. Many of us would be happy to take on more of the admin workload for our own clients if SSA simply trusted attorneys to do their jobs. The next step should be automated appointments of attorney representatives.
Love that head in the sand approach. Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy your pie!!!
If I had a dime for every prophecy of agency collapse and total disarray posted here over the last say 15 or so years, I could buy a slice of pie for everyone getting a check from SSA. I would even be able to pay for the whipped cream! Guess what, the agency is still here and really not that much has changed. But dont let facts get in your way. Believe in what you want. Time for another slice!
You are right. The fact that it now takes about 8 times longer to get an initial or reconsideration decision than it did 15 years ago is a non-event that only liberal DimocRATS with Trump derangement syndrome would find noteworthy.
Glad things are still hunky-dory in your all-white suburb, but it’s been a death spiral out here in the real world.
More rightwingnut lies.
One tried-and-true method of undermining Social Security is starving the program of administrative resources, a GOP hobby horse for years. "Social Security, today, is serving more customers than ever before with staffing levels Congress has reduced to 50-year lows," O'Malley told the House Appropriations Committee earlier this month.
The consequences have included wait times on the program's 800 number that ballooned to nearly an hour, O'Malley said. Of the average 7 million clients who called the number each month for advice or assistance, 4 million "hung up in frustration after waiting far too long."
The backlog of initial disability determinations reached a near-record of 1.2 million applicants awaiting a decision, some for more than a year. The program estimated that about 30,000 applicants died in 2023 while awaiting decisions.
I respectfully disagree. Obvious SSA benefit cuts that put grandmas and grandpas on the street and eating dog food would provoke an angry backlash. Quickest way for Republicans to blow it.
Are the normal times?
Several current federal employees told CNN they’re afraid their lives will be forever changed – including physically threatened – as Musk makes behind-the-scenes bureaucrats into personal targets. Others told CNN that the threat of being in Musk’s crosshairs might even drive them from their jobs entirely – achieving Musk’s smaller government goals without so much as a proper review.
“These tactics are aimed at sowing terror and fear at federal employees,” said Everett Kelley, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, which represents more than 800,000 of the 2.3 million civilian federal employees. “It’s intended to make them fearful that they will become afraid to speak up.”
If productive employees do their jobs they'll be fine. Some GS 14s and up may need to worry if they aren't very good. That's about as bad as it will get.
When I started at SSA about 20 years ago we had 999 day claims that took priority, that is to say claims that were 1000 days old or older. Havent seen those numbers since then, so I would say its better. Time from Initial to Hearing is about the same, used to wait for 18 months for a hearing with a 90 day turnaround on initials, but hey, you believe in what you want to believe boo.
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