The Judge Lottery

      From  The Judge Lottery: Within-Office Disparities in Social Security Disability Adjudication, Fiscal Year 2025 by Drew Patterson:

Description

A claimant who appeals a denied Social Security disability claim is assigned, essentially at random, to an administrative law judge (ALJ) within a hearing office. Using the Social Security Administration's public ALJ disposition files for fiscal year 2025, this paper measures how much that assignment matters. Among 1,023 judges who issued at least 100 decisions in a single office (317,462 decisions in total), allowance rates ranged from 8.8 percent to 92.8 percent. The disparity is not primarily geographic: 73 percent of the variance in judge allowance rates lies within hearing offices rather than between them, and in the median office the gap between the most and least generous judge is 32.6 percentage points. A simulation in which every judge in an office decides identical case pools shows that sampling noise can account for only about 5 percent of the observed within-office variance. Judge allowance rates are also highly stable across years (r = 0.93 between FY2025 and FY2026 year-to-date), which rules out one-off docket composition as an explanation. Office-level workload measures explain little of either the level or the spread of allowance rates, and a state-month panel of initial-level determinations from 2015 to 2026 shows only a small association between backlog pressure and allowance rates. The judge draw remains one of the largest observable determinants of whether a disability appeal succeeds, a decade after the agency's quality-review reforms. Includes full analysis code and the exact SSA public data snapshots used. …