50/50 Chance That Debt Ceiling Goes Down To The Wire

 From ABC News:

A senior White House official says that there's a 50/50 chance that the current deficit reduction mess will not be resolved by this time next week, the day before the federal government may officially run out of money to pay all its bills.

"We may be here as we tick down to midnight," the official said. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has said August 2 the federal government runs out of funds, with incoming revenues far less than outgoing bills.

Appropriations Markup Delayed

The House Appropriations subcommittee markup of the appropriations bill that would include Social Security's administrative budget had been scheduled for Tuesday, July 26 but it has been postponed. No new date has been announced.

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August 3 Social Security And SSI Checks At Risk

The current status of raising the debt ceiling is that even if Republicans and Democrats could immediately agree on a plan, there is hardly enough time to pass a bill if recalcitrant Senators such as Jim DeMint (R-SC) and Rand Paul (R-KY) filibuster and they probably will. There is no agreement among the leaders and it is unclear whether Republicans in the House of Representatives will be willing to agree to anything. Many of them believe that failing to raise the debt ceiling would have only minor consequences and would be desirable. Financial markets will put pressure on everyone as the week goes along. 

There is a very real chance that the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) checks due to go out on August 3 will be delayed. That would be terrible in and of itself but there is an enormous threat to the U.S. economy.

This Could Happen At A Social Security Office

From TPM Media:

Stop me if you've heard this one. A man goes into a public assistance office in Charleston, South Carolina in a kilt, tells them he's a member of the Irish Republican Army and asks for help for 25 fellow Irishmen in a hospital who need Medicaid.

A government employee follows the rules and explains the process for filling out a Medicaid paperwork and the qualifications they'd need to meet. She informs them that a federal law intended to protect patient privacy requires her not to divulge any information he's told her.

So what happens next? James O'Keefe's Project Veritas releases a deceptively edited video that makes the woman look like a terrorist sympathizer, though it isn't even clear if she knows the background of the IRA. ...

[And more on what happened at that public assistance office] The South Carolina Heath & Human Services employee explains that only U.S. citizens are eligible for Medicaid and says she's not making any promises that the 25 purported IRA members would qualify. 

Will The August Social Security Checks Come Out On Time?

Read this detailed report from the Los Angeles Times on how the debt ceiling talks broke down and tell me that you're still optimistic that the debt ceiling will be raised in time to prevent delays in issuing Social Social checks. I will grant that I have said in the past that we should watch the stock market to see how serious the threat is and the stock market may have been a bit nervous but there has been no sign of collapse.  It's hard for me to believe that anything other than the rapid collapse of financial markets will bring about a resolution of this problem.

By the way, notice that Republicans wanted to delay the announcement that they were withdrawing from talks with the White House until after the stock market had closed for the week. We'll have to watch to see what happens on Monday.

No Security Guard Involved In Feig Firing

When Commissioner Astrue fired Martin Gerry from his high level position at Social Security, Gerry was escorted from the building by a security guard. Also, his computer was seized and his office lock changed. I don't know what happened to Ephraim Feig's computer or office lock but he tells me that there was no security guard involved in his departure. The firing came while he was out of the office. When he returned days later he was allowed back into the building and spent about an hour talking with human resources before leaving.

Commissioner's Message: Field Office Hours To Be Reduced -- Policy Changes Coming

A Message To All SSA and DDS Employees

Subject:  New Social Security Field Office Hours

Given the tight budget situation, we must continue to make tough choices.  The latest decision is that, beginning August 15, 2011, we will close Social Security field offices to the public 30 minutes early each day.  For example, a field office that is usually open to the public Monday through Friday from 9am to 4pm will now close daily at 3:30 pm.

Reducing hours will allow field office employees, who will continue to work their regular hours, to complete interviews without using overtime.  That's essential because Congress provided us with nearly $1 billion less than the President requested for our budget this fiscal year, which makes it very hard to provide the amount of overtime that our usual business process requires.  

Field offices have lost nearly 1,600 workers over the past nine months, and we cannot afford to replace that staff. As a small measure to help deal with those losses, we will close field offices to the public on Friday, November 25, 2011.  Field office employees who work on that day will use the day for backlog reduction.  As we try to adapt to these difficult fiscal times, we need to remind the public that they can find many services and get up-to-date information online or via our 800 number.

Soon I will be announcing policy changes that will allow us to work more efficiently.  Please know that we are doing what we can to help you during these difficult times. 

Michael J. Astrue
Commissioner

Update: And Social Security has issued a press release saying the same thing.