A Thought

     Is it possible that President Obama is delaying nominating anyone to be Social Security Commissioner because he fears that any nomination could become embroiled in a dispute over the Chained CPI, which may be part of a settlement of the endless budget disputes? If it it ever comel up in Congress, the Chained CPI debate could be quite contentious.

Social Security Subcommittee Schedules Hearing

     The House Social Security Subcommittee has scheduled a hearing for March 7 at 9:00 on the Social Security disability benefits. This is a day after the House Appropriations Committee hearing on Social Security's operating budget and a day before the Social Security Advisory Board "Forum" on the disability program. I doubt that this clustering is accidental.

House Appropriations Committee Hearing Scheduled

     The House Committee on Appropriations has scheduled a hearing for 10:00 on March 6 on Social Security's appropriation for Fiscal Year 2014, which begins on October 1, 2013. Acting Commissioner Colvin will testify.

More Info On Sequestration From AFGE

     A message to members of the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) working for Social Security:

AFGE NATIONAL COUNCIL OF SSA FIELD OPERATIONS LOCALS, AFL–CIO 

SSA Budget Cuts Furlough Update 

Yesterday, Acting SSA Commissioner, Carolyn Colvin met with SSA’s [Social Security Administration's] AFGE General Committee Officers to brief the Union on sequestration.  [After one initial meeting, former Commissioner Astrue had refused to meet with AFGE leaders. This meeting is one sign that things have changed at least a little since Astrue left.]

AC [Acting Commissioner] Colvin informed AFGE that under the current budget continuing resolution (CR), she believes SSA will not have to furlough employees if sequestration is implemented. However, she is clear that if the budget changes, furlough may have to be revisited. 

There are two current situations that may change SSA’s current budget: 

1. The CR expires at the end of March. Congress is working on a new CR for the remainder of the year. Some Members of Congress want to see cuts to the CR in place of sequestration, as stated in the Budget Control Act of 2012. 
2. Legislation to override sequestration. Current discussions in the House and Senate may lead to fewer cuts in the Department of Defense cuts and shift to additional discretionary spending cuts. SSA’s budget is included in the discretionary spending. 

AC Colvin also informed AFGE that to avoid furloughs, there will be cuts to SSA’s budget in other areas. Some of those areas are expected to include a freeze on all overtime, hiring and travel; and release of all temporary hires and reemployed annuitants. As employees leave the agency for retirement or other reasons, their positions will not be replaced. 

All of this will lead to fewer employees to do the work. Backlogs will grow; waiting times will rise; reception areas will become and/or remain full; calendars will back up; more calls will be in cue; and busy rates will increase. AFGE is very concerned that the adverse impact on public service will result in more complaints and hostility from the public. 

AFGE will be providing you with information during this difficult, confusing period of budget discussions. 

If SSA dodges the bullet of furloughs, many of our fellow Federal employees who work in our communities and cities, may not. AFGE will be planning a number of events in the next month to address the impact of budget cuts for all federal agencies, including SSA.

Acting Commissioner Hopes To Avoid Furloughs

A Message To All SSA Employees

Subject: Budget Update

     I want to share with you the latest information we have regarding our operating budget. I know sequestration is on all of our minds.
     Clearly, this is a challenging time for us all. I want you to know that, here at SSA, we will work to minimize the risk of furloughs that would further harm services and program integrity efforts in the event of a sequester. This includes making some very difficult decisions and taking necessary steps to mitigate our budget risks this fiscal year—including steps such as restricting hiring, limiting overtime availability, delaying purchases, and limiting agency travel. We will also be restricting our spending to mission critical activities. By taking these actions, we are hopeful the funds available to us will allow us to operate without furloughs.
     On March 1, we will continue to serve the American public. I recognize and appreciate all you do to keep service to the American public our number one priority. Thank you for your continued commitment. I will keep you informed of developments.

Carolyn W. Colvin
Acting Commissioner

SSAB Forum

     The Social Security Advisory Board (SSAB) has scheduled a "Forum" for March 8 on "Social Security Disability: Time For Reform." There is some diversity of viewpoint among those scheduled to speak but there's a definite tilt to the program. Here are some of the points of view represented with the names of the speakers representing these points of view in parentheses:

• Something must be done because a lot more people are drawing Social Security disability benefits now. This is because it's less difficult to get on these disability benefits than when Ronald Reagan was President. (Duggan, Daly, Autor)
• Too many people draw Social Security disability benefits because the benefits are too generous.(Duggan, Autor)
• The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) makes it easier for disabled people to work and that should make it less difficult for people to get off Social Security disability benefits. (Claypool, Imparato, Blanck)
• Social Security is the reason why more disabled people aren't working. (Maestas, Smith, McDonald, Autor, Stapleton)
• If Social Security gave disabled people more encouragement and assistment, they'd go back to work. (Smith, Davey, McDonald, Mazerski, Autor, Stapleton, Smalligan)

     I'm sure that I'm oversimplifying the views of these people. I'm also sure that each of them in their own way wants to help disabled people. (I will say that David Autor is really full of it and has no business speaking publicly about these issues. He simply doesn't know what he's talking about.) 

     I think it's appropriate to give a shorthand response to each of these expressed views, the sort of responses that are unlikely to be expressed at the SSAB "Forum."

• It certainly is less difficult for people to get on Social Security disability benefits than when Ronald Reagan was President. However, you have to understand that Social Security disability during the Reagan Administration was an aberration. It was less difficult to get on those benefits before the Reagan Administration and it quickly became less difficult to obtain those benefits as the Reagan Administration wore on and the return to prior practices was even more pronounced after Reagan left office. This was because the changes made during the early part of the Reagan Administration evoked a vigorous political response. The Reagan changes were quickly rolled back. Even though there have been plenty of changes since Reagan left office, it has remained less difficult to get the benefits. Anyone who advocates a return to Reagan era policies is naive. Those policies would evoke the same reaction in 2013 as they did in 1983. The Reagan days were as far from a golden age for Social Security disability policy as you can get.
• Disability benefits too high? Really? Generally, Social Security disability benefits are less than half what recipients were earning. They're far less in most cases than disability benefits under employer based long term disability plans. 
• The ADA makes it easier for disabled people to work? The evidence is that the ADA had little effect on the number of disabled people who are employed. In fact, some scholars have argued that the ADA reduced the employment of the disabled!
• I don't see how one can argue that the availability of Social Security disability benefits discourages people from working when we have clear evidence that only 27% of those who apply for and are denied Social Security disability benefits are working four years later. Being denied benefits isn't enough to get these people back to work even though those who are denied are, on the whole, less disabled than those drawing disability benefits. The evidence is unambiguous that very few of those drawing Social Security disability benefits will return to work even if they are removed from benefits.
• The illusion that with a little more encouragement disabled people will fly off the disability rolls and back to work has been persistent for decades. This illusion has led to the following work incentives: Trial Work Period, Extended Period of Eligibility, Expedited Reinstatement, Ticket to Work and the Vocational Rehabilitation exception, just to mention the Title II provisions. There's another complicated mess of Title XVI work incentives. None of this is working to any significant extent. If none of this works, why would anyone expect a new work incentive to work? I can think of one good reason why some of the speakers would promote work incentives. Some of them work for Ticket to Work contractors. Not only do they want to keep the contracts their employers have, even though they're a waste of money; they want to get more contracts. Ticket to Work is an unjustifiable waste of money. Any attempt to go further down the rehabilitation road will just waste more money.

Why Did Astrue Agree To Have OMB Clear His Remarks?

     Sean Reilly at the Federal Times takes note of former Commissioner Astrue's remark that he wouldn't "miss having everything I say being cleared by a 28-year-old at OMB" [Office of Management and Budget, part of the White House]. Reilly asked OMB for comment. OMB didn't deny what Astrue said.

     Why did Astrue consent to this? The statute says that Social Security Commissioners are independent. There was no direct way of forcing Astrue to clear his remarks. If anything, this is inconsistent with Social Security being an independent agency. My guess is that during the transition after the 2008 election Astrue made the commitment to not speak without OMB clearance. Is OMB so powerful that the job of Commissioner would have been untenable in the face of OMB hostility? Was there a threat to reorganize Astrue out of a job if he didn't agree to be a team member? How much independence did Astrue have in other ways? He had to clear new regulations through OMB, of course, but what about Rulings? What about major contracts? Maybe we'll get answers to these questions some day.

     And one more question, does Social Security as an independent agency really make sense?

Have People Stopped Reading News Articles Containing The Word "Sequestration"?

     From the Baltimore Sun:

Checks will arrive on time, but nearly every other task the Social Security Administration performs — from answering phones to determining eligibility for claims — will be delayed if Congress fails to stop steep federal budget cuts from taking effect this week, officials warned Monday. 

The Woodlawn-based agency is bracing for a cut of roughly 8 percent to its $11.5 billion budget if Congress does not avert the government-wide reductions known as sequestration. Officials say the cuts would leave people who call the agency's hotline on hold for 10 minutes and delay some disability decisions by a month. 

"We're already getting a lot of reports of increasing anger from the public" since hours at the agency's call centers were shortened to save money, said Witold Skwierczynski, president of the Social Security Council of the American Federation of Government Employees. "People are upset."