Disability Trust Fund Doing Better Than Forecast

     The Office of Chief Actuary has released data on Disability Trust Fund operations through August 2013. As of the end of August, the Disability Trust Fund had a balance of $103.6 billion. This is down by $19.1 billion since December 2012. For the first eight months of 2012, the Disability Trust Fund went down by a $18.5 billion.
     The report sounds bad but you have to contrast the actual results to the Chief Actuary's Intermediate projection, the one that everyone pays attention to, that the Disability Trust Fund would go down by $33.5 billion in 2013, up from $31.2 billion in 2012, a 7% increase.  The increase in the shortfall is only 3% so far this year compared to the same time period last year. The Disability Trust Fund is doing better than the Intermediate projection.

How Does The GOP Win If There's A Government Shutdown?

     David Frum's analysis of the Republican government shutdown dilemma seems about right to me. If you think the GOP is on the right track, can you explain why Frum is wrong? How can the Republicans win this one?

Spending We Could Do Without

     From a press release:

The U.S. Department of Education and the Social Security Administration today announced the award of $466,603 to four Minority-Serving Institutions to conduct research in the areas of retirement security, financial literacy, and financial decision-making within minority and low-income communities. ...

"Social Security recognizes the importance of retirement planning and is committed to researching ways to strengthen financial literacy across the country," said Carolyn W. Colvin, Acting Commissioner of Social Security. "Through these grants, we plan to improve our understanding of how to best educate individuals in minority and low-income communities and prepare them for a more secure financial future." ...

     It's not that I oppose retirement planning or financial literacy, it's just that I'm pretty sure this will do virtually nothing to promote either. People just aren't interested in these topics. They should be but they aren't.

Maybe They Didn't Have Any Other Income

     A recent study reveals four reasons why people start taking Social Security retirement benefits early, passing up the higher monthly benefits they could receive by waiting:

• Fear of loss. People who have a stronger aversion to financial loss also tended to say they would claim earlier.  To them, the researchers said, a delay in receiving their benefit checks “looks like a potential loss.”
• Life expectancy. It’s intuitive that an individual who doesn’t expect to live as long might want to start his benefits as soon as possible, and that’s what the analysis concluded.  The researchers found that 10 years added to one’s life expectancy will delay a Social Security filing by six months.
• Fairness.  The individuals surveyed were asked whether they agreed with several statements about Social Security, such as “I feel that I have earned these retirement benefits.”  The more strongly an individual agreed with such statements, the more likely they were to say they would file for their benefits early.
• Patience. This finding was self-explanatory: the more impatient an individual, the more likely he is to claim early.

Can't Trust Social Security's Website?

     Larry Kotlikoff, who appears on PBS's Newshour program, says that you can't trust the online advice you get from Social Security. Since the online advice he's referring to is nearly incomprehensible to the average person and what Kotlikoff thinks should be added to the online advice would make it even more incomprehensible, I don't know that this is going to matter much. What it does point out is that, contrary to what most people think, Social Security is complicated.

Budget Impasse Continues

     The Speaker of the House of Representatives says he doesn't expect a government shutdown next week but also says he will pursue a plan that would make a shutdown almost inevitable. At best, nothing will be settled until Monday. In the meantime, based upon past behavior, expect the Commissioner of Social Security to be sending out a broadcast e-mail to employees either today -- Thursday -- or Friday. 

     I hope that the vast majority of Social Security employees remain at work even if there's a shutdown, but, to be honest, a straightforward interpretation of the Anti-Deficiency Act would mean that almost all Social Security employees would be furloughed. I don't know that one should read anything into it, but the last time there was a serious shutdown threat, President Obama said that he wanted Social Security to continue processing claims. I haven't seen such a statement this time around.

CR Charged With Extortion

     From the Associated Press with a Memphis dateline:

Federal prosecutors say a Social Security Administration claims representative has been charged with illegally charging beneficiaries a fee to process payment claims.

The U.S. attorney's office said Wednesday that 42-year-old Montrell Levelle Arnold has been charged with two counts of bribery and two counts of extortion.

Social Security Paying For Ads On Buses

     From the Meriden, CT Record Journal:

Ads along the side of city buses this past summer were intended to get Baby Boomers reaching retirement age to sign up for their Social Security benefits online.

Internet sign-ups are cheaper for the Social Security Administration than mailed forms. The local ads are part of a nationwide campaign to move people to electronic sign-ups and statements. ...

The contract [for the advertising] obtained through a freedom-of-information request, shows the Social Security Administration agreed to a $2,980-per-month rate for four displays.