The State Of The Shutdown-Debt Ceiling Crisis

     Jonathan Chait has posted a new and insightful piece on the government shutdown-debt ceiling crisis. You should read the whole piece but here's an excerpt:

One way to understand the dysfunction within the Republican Party is to think of it as a hostage scheme that spun out of control. The plan, originally formulated by Paul Ryan and other party leaders, involved a more aggressive reprise of the 2011 negotiations, where Republicans would use the threat of default, along with sequestration, to force President Obama to accept unfavorable budget terms. The plan was hijacked by Ted Cruz and transformed into a scheme using a less effective hostage threat (shutting down the government rather than defaulting) but tethered to the much more grandiose ransom of repealing Obamacare. As the Cruz scheme disintegrates around the Republicans, the original leaders are attempting to reassert control and revert to the original plan.

The subtext of op-eds today by Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan is a promise to ratchet down their ransom terms. Neither op-ed mentions any demands related to Obamacare. Ryan proposes to trade higher short-term discretionary government spending for permanent cuts to tax rates and retirement programs. “We can work together,” he writes. “We can do some good.”

The policy demands in Ryan’s op-ed are sufficiently vague that, if viewed as an opening bid, they would not completely preclude some kind of deal if he actually wants to bargain. The trouble is that Ryan’s entire history strongly suggests he does not want to deal. Every major attempt to create bipartisan budget negotiations has been quashed by Ryan....

The single most implausible element of the House leadership’s "let’s negotiate" gambit is the premise that a bipartisan budget deal would satisfy the Republican base. Any bipartisan deal, even one heavily slanted to the Republican side, would enrage conservatives. Even the tiniest concession — easing sequestration, closing a couple of token tax loopholes — would be received on the right as a betrayal. Loss aversion is a strong human emotion, and especially strong among movement conservatives. Concessions given away will dwarf any winnings in their mind. Boehner, Ryan, and Cantor have spent months regaling conservatives with promises of rich ransoms to come. Coming back with an actual negotiated settlement would enrage the right.

Karl Rove Chimes In

     There is little continued media attention to the allegations of serious wrongdoing at a Social Security hearing office in Kentucky. However, Karl Rove was on the Bill O'Reilly show to allege that this case demonstrated that there is no protection against fraudulent Social Security disability claims.

More On Eric Conn

     The Lexington, KY Herald-Leader reports that Kentucky Bar Association is investigating attorney Eric Conn, who was one of the subjects of a Senate hearing into allegations of wrongdoing at a Social Security hearing office. The local U.S. attorney is not commenting upon whether criminal charges will be brought against Conn. The Herald-Leader also reports that a Kentucky Supreme Court justice drove to Conn's office on several occasions to ask for help with his campaign for election in 2012 and then received it in the form of illegal campaign contributions.

Senate Hearing Getting Little Media Attention

     Yesterday's Senate hearing on the allegations of fraud at a hearing office in Kentucky has had surprisingly little resonance in the media. Of course, there have been some stories. Here are the links I've found:

• Associated Press
• Fox News
  Government Executive

  The government shutdown-debt ceiling mess has crowded out a lot of news. Perhaps, the fact that the hearing ran ridiculously late contributed to the lack of coverage. Perhaps the fact that Tom Coburn, a highly partisan and idiosyncratic Senator, has been championing this led some to be skeptical. It certainly led me to be skeptical and, to a large extent, I remain skeptical until I can hear the other side, both from the parties alleged to have been illegally colluding and from the Social Security Administration which is alleged to have drug its feet in dealing with the allegations. Maybe the story hasn't drawn much attention simply because no one, not even Fox News, can tie it to the President.

Most ODAR Workers To Return To Work

     I have heard from multiple sources that most employees of the Office of Disability Adjudication and Review (ODAR) will be returning to work tomorrow. To this point during the shutdown almost all ODAR employees other than the Administrative Law Judges (ALJs) have been furloughed. This meant that hearings were going forward but few decisions could be issued. Also, there was no way to prepare cases for future scheduling. The Appeals Council, which has been completely shut down, is also reopening for business tomorrow.

     There are still problems with federal court work on Social Security cases. While the federal courts are open, Social Security's attorneys and other employees who work on these cases are furloughed. This will cause delays but, at least, it affects a much smaller number of people.

What Is Alleged

     Here is a brief summary of the allegations made at the Senate Homeland Security and Government Operations Committee hearing today with some comments from me in brackets on how these allegations fit into the Social Security Act, regulations and practices:

• Eric Conn represented claimants over an area covering the territories of several hearing offices. Conn's clients routinely waived a hearing with the hearing office where they lived and asked for a hearing near Conn's office. [Nothing improper here or ever unusual in an occasional case but accommodating Conn to this extent was unusual.]
• Conn's cases were routinely assigned to different Administrative Law Judges (ALJs) in the hearing office but one ALJ, Judge Daugherty, went into the computer system and reassigned all of Conn's cases to himself. [If true, this was highly improper. It shouldn't have happened. Hearing office management should have stopped this immediately. If true, this should have brought about Daugherty's removal from his position as an ALJ. Anyone in a supervisory position at Social Security who was aware of this but failed to act should also be in serious trouble.]
• Daugherty had regular telephone conversations with Conn during which he would tell Conn what sort of medical evidence he needed to see before approving each of the claimants Conn represented. [An occasional telephone conversation of this sort about a specific claimant isn't unusual. An ALJ might say something such as "I think that Mr. Jones has a strong case that I could approve without a hearing but I'd like to see some updated medical evidence. Can you get me updated records from Dr. Smith?" There's nothing wrong with that. However, I have never previously heard of something like what is alleged here. If true, it is clearly unprofessional behavior that should have brought about Daugherty's removal from office and Conn's suspension from Social Security practice. Anyone in a supervisory position who was aware of this but failed to act should be in serious trouble.]
• Conn would schedule medical examinations with physicians he selected in order to meet Daugherty's requests. Conn would use physicians with seriously checkered pasts. Conn would give the physician a form to sign that Conn had already filled out. Conn used the previously completed forms in rotation. [If true, this is criminal, both on Conn's part and on the part of the physicians. Anyone in a supervisory position at Social Security who was aware of this but who failed to act should be in serious trouble.]
• Daugherty would approve all of Conn's cases. 
• Almost $100,000 was deposited in Daugherty's bank accounts that he could not explain. No allegation was made that the money came from Conn but this was suggested. [Obviously, if the money came from Conn, this is criminal behavior on the part of Conn and Daugherty.]

     Update: There are allegations that Social Security employees who made the allegations suffered reprisals from Social Security management and that Conn arranged for surveillance of one or more of them.
     AP article on hearing.

Senate Hearing At 3:00

     The Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs hearing on Social Security disability benefits is to start at 3:00 EDT. It will be televised on C-SPAN 3. That will be both a cable and a streaming video feed.

    Update: It's not on C-SPAN -- they changed their minds about broadcasting it --  but it can be watched on the Committee website.

Vigorous Response To Sixty Minutes

     Media Matters has a blog post up concerning the criticism that the Sixty Minutes piece on the Social Security disability programs has received from national disability organizations.

     Michael Hiltzik at the Los Angeles Times calls the Sixty Minutes story "shameful." He notes that the Administrative Law Judges (ALJs) who told Sixty Minutes how easy it is to get Social Security disability benefits were singing a different tune in 2009. At that time, they said that the standards were too tight!
    The Center for Economic and Policy Research has posted a criticism of the Sixty Minutes story on its blog.