Final 2014 Numbers On Disability Insurance Trust Fund: What Do They Portend?

Disability Insurance Trust Fund, 1957-2014
[In millions]

			Assets
Calendar year	Total receipts	Total expenditures	Net increase during year	Assets at end of year
1957	$709	$59	$649	$649
1958	991	261	729	1,379
1959	931	485	447	1,825
1960	1,063	600	464	2,289
1961	1,104	956	148	2,437
1962	1,114	1,183	-69	2,368
1963	1,165	1,297	-133	2,235
1964	1,218	1,407	-188	2,047
1965	1,247	1,687	-440	1,606
1966	2,079	1,947	133	1,739
1967	2,379	2,089	290	2,029
1968	3,454	2,458	996	3,025
1969	3,792	2,716	1,075	4,100
1970	4,774	3,259	1,514	5,614
1971	5,031	4,000	1,031	6,645
1972	5,572	4,759	813	7,457
1973	6,443	5,973	470	7,927
1974	7,378	7,196	182	8,109
1975	8,035	8,790	-754	7,354
1976	8,757	10,366	-1,609	5,745
1977	9,570	11,945	-2,375	3,370
1978	13,810	12,954	856	4,226
1979	15,590	14,186	1,404	5,630
1980	13,871	15,872	-2,001	3,629
1981	17,078	17,658	-580	3,049
1982	22,715	17,992	-358	2,691
1983	20,682	18,177	2,505	5,195
1984	17,309	18,546	-1,237	3,959
1985	19,301	19,478	2,363	6,321
1986	19,439	20,522	1,459	7,780
1987	20,303	21,425	-1,122	6,658
1988	22,699	22,494	206	6,864
1989	24,795	23,753	1,041	7,905
1990	28,791	25,616	3,174	11,079
1991	30,390	28,571	1,819	12,898
1992	31,430	32,004	-574	12,324
1993	32,301	35,662	-3,361	8,963
1994	52,841	38,879	13,962	22,925
1995	56,696	42,055	14,641	37,566
1996	60,710	45,351	15,359	52,924
1997	60,499	47,034	13,465	66,389
1998	64,357	49,931	14,425	80,815
1999	69,541	53,035	16,507	97,321
2000	77,920	56,782	21,138	118,459
2001	83,903	61,369	22,534	140,993
2002	87,379	67,905	19,475	160,468
2003	88,074	73,108	14,966	175,434
2004	91,380	80,597	10,783	186,217
2005	97,423	88,018	9,405	195,623
2006	102,641	94,456	8,185	203,808
2007	109,854	98,778	11,076	214,884
2008	109,840	108,951	889	215,773
2009	109,283	121,506	-12,223	203,550
2010	104,017	127,660	-23,643	179,907
2011	106,276	132,332	-26,056	153,850
2012	109,115	140,299	-31,184	122,666
2013	111,228	143,450	-32,221	90,445
2014	114,858	145,060	-30,201	60,244

     The crucial question is what happens in the next two years. There was modest improvement in  the rate at which the Disability Trust Fund went down in 2014 over 2013. Was it just a blip or a sign of things to come. The number actually drawing Disability Insurance Benefits stabilized in 2014 and was heading down in the last three months of the year. Was 2014 an inflection point? If so, how much of an inflection point?

Congressmen Want Bipartisan Social Security Commission

     From TPM:

Reps. Tom Cole (R-OK) and John Delaney (D-MD) plan to introduce a bill this Congress that would create a Social Security commission to propose changes to the program, Cole's office confirmed to TPM on Monday.

 The bill's language and timing has not been finalized, but Cole, a close ally of House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), and Delaney co-sponsored similar legislation last year. ...

Last year's bill would have created a 13-member commission to produce recommendations to keep Social Security solvent for 75 years. If tax revenue were transferred from the retirement to the disability fund to avoid the 2016 benefits cliff for the latter program, both funds are projected to start running out of money in 2033.

One member would have been appointed by the president, and each caucus leader in Congress would have picked three members, under last year's bill. They would be tasked with issuing recommendations to Congress one year after the commission's creation. Those recommendations, if approved by nine of the commission's 13 members, would then be expedited to the House floor for a vote, with no amendments allowed.

Cole outlined to The Hill some of the proposals that he thought the commission would recommend.

“The commission would probably gradually raise retirement age, it would probably look at chained CPI, would probably look at means-testing and probably look at some sort of revenue, or reduce benefits for upper-income people,” he said. “Then you have to vote.” ...

     This just looks like Republicans looking for bipartisan cover for benefit cuts. There's no reason for Democrats to cooperate with this. Republicans are in the majority in both houses of Congress. If they're willing to vote for benefit cuts, they get them through without Democratic votes. Even the filibuster won't work for Democrats on this because it can go through the budget reconciliation process which only requires a majority vote. If Republicans are unwilling to vote for benefit cuts, why should Democrats?

CALJ Charles Boyer 1950 - 2015

     Former Social Security Chief Administrative Law Judge Charles Boyer passed away on January 20.

Reno To Become Deputy Commissioner For Retirement And Disability Policy

     The National Academy of Social Insurance (NASI) announced today that its longtime Vice President for Income Security Policy, Virginia Reno, is leaving NASI to become Social Security's Deputy Commissioner for Retirement and Disability Policy. In previous testimony to the House Social Security Subcommittee she did not indicated support for cuts in Social Security disability benefits.

Social Security Headcount Gets Back To 2002 Level

The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) has posted updated figures for the number of employees at the Social Security Administration:

• September 2014 64,684
• June 2014 62,651
• March 2014 60,820
• December 2013 61,957
• September 2013 62,543
• June 2013 62,877
• March 2013 63,777
• December 2012 64,538
• September 2012 65,113
• September 2011 67,136
• December 2010 70,270
• December 2009 67,486
• September 2009 67,632
• December 2008 63,733
• September 2008 63,990
• September 2007 62,407
• September 2006 63,647
• September 2005 66,147
• September 2004 65,258
• September 2003 64,903
• September 2002 64,648
• September 2001 65,377
• September 2000 64,521

Senate Subcommittee Assignments

     The Senate Finance Committee, which has jurisdiction over Social Security has released its subcommittee assignments. The subcommittee assignments seem to be vastly less important in the Senate than in the House but here is the lineup for the relevant subcommittee:

Subcommittee on Social Security, Pensions and Family Policy

Republicans	Democrats
Dean Heller, Nev., Chairman	Sherrod Brown, Ohio, Ranking Member
Johnny Isakson, Ga. Pat Toomey, Pa.	Charles Schumer, N.Y.
Tim Scott, S.C

Big Downturn In Senior Attorney Decisions In Recent Years

     I had recently wondered about the state of the senior attorney advisor decision program at Social Security. The newsletter of the National Organization of Social Security Claimants Representatives (NOSSCR) (which is not available online) has some numbers on senior attorney advisor decisions:

• FY 2012: 37,423
• FY 2013 18,625
• FY 2014 1,872

ALJs Lose In Court Of Appeals

     The Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled against the lawsuit filed by the Association of Administrative Law Judges, a labor union, claiming that agency productivity guidelines interfered with ALJ independence. 

     I have always thought that the argument that encouraging greater productivity somehow forced ALJs to approve more claims was preposterous. For goodness sake, the ALJs don't write their decisions! 

     The agency has not always treated its ALJs with the respect they deserve but this lawsuit wasn't the answer. The ALJ Association would be on sounder ground if it stuck to issues like removing the decision writers from hearing offices. That's an issue where most people would agree that the agency's position is preposterous.