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Smart People Do Dumb Things Department

    From a press release:

The Inspector General for the Social Security Administration, Gail S. Ennis, today announced Federal charges of wire fraud against a former senior financial analyst for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, for an alleged fraud scheme involving the Social Security Administration and the Federal Reserve System’s disability programs. ...

Lawrence Rufrano, who made his initial appearance October 28, 2020 in the Northern District of California, is alleged to have worked as executive director of a financial technology laboratory at a university and various law firms while collecting both long-term disability benefits from the Federal Reserve System and Social Security Disability Insurance benefits. The fraud loss is estimated to be $185,000. ...

According to the complaint, Rufrano did not report his outside employment to either disability benefit program despite requirements to do so. ...

     Rufrano was Executive Director of Stanford University's Future of Digital Currency Institute.

Opioids And Social Security Disability

      There's a newly published study on The Effects of Opioids on Labor Market Outcomes and Use of Social Security Disability Insurance which purports to find that increased opioid use led to both more employment and more disability claims, which is a surprising if not confounding result. 

     One problem with the study is that the author did not attempt to measure the actual use of opioids. The author measured "marketing payments from opioid manufacturers and distributors to physicians as an instrument to predict opioid prescribing."

     I wonder if the study has cause and effect backwards. Wouldn't a population with more disabled people than average be one that an unscrupulous opioid manufacturer would want to target? Aren't disabled people an obvious market for opioids? Don't you intensify sales efforts in a geographic area where your marketing campaign seems to be paying dividends? 

Disability Trust Fund Reserves Increasing Despite Pandemic

      There's reason for concern over the status of Social Security's Retirement and Survivor's Insurance Trust Fund. Because of the pandemic, F.I.C.A. revenues are down, while payments to retirees continue. However, despite a decline in revenues, the Disability Insurance Trust Fund's reserves are increasing because payments to disabled beneficiaries keep going down. By the way in reading the table below, keep in mind that there is considerable seasonality in F.I.C.A. payments. Compare each quarter of this year to the same quarter in the preceding year and look at the overall picture.

In Office Appointments Now Available In Limited Circumstances

     From Social Security's Covid-19 webpage:

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, you can only enter our offices if you have an appointment. For more information regarding appointment availability for your situation, please select the statement that applies to you:

• I need help with benefits.
• I need help with my Social Security Number (SSN).

I need help with benefits

Generally, we will schedule an in-person appointment in dire need situations. Dire need exists when you:

• Are without food or shelter, including utilities or are without medical care or coverage and need to apply for or reinstate benefits.
• Currently receive benefits and have an urgent need for payment to meet expenses for food, shelter, or medical treatment, and you cannot receive the payment electronically.

If you believe you qualify for an in-person appointment, call your local office. You can look up the phone number for your local office by accessing our office locator. Please note that appointments may not be immediately available, depending on local health and safety conditions and staffing.

I need help with my Social Security Number (SSN)

We are prioritizing requests for in-person SSN services for:

• Individuals age 12 or older applying for their first SSN card.
• Individuals who need to update or correct their SSN information (such as your name, date of birth, or citizenship) to obtain income, resources, or medical care or coverage, or other services or benefits (for example filing a tax return, applying for housing, or seeking an Economic Impact Payment).

If you believe you qualify for an in-person appointment, call your local office. You can look up the phone number for your local office by accessing our office locator. Please note that appointments may not be immediately available, depending on local health and safety conditions and staffing.

Regs To Allow AAJs To Hold Hearings Approved

      In August Social Security asked the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to authorize final regulations to allow Administrative Appeals Judges (AAJs), who currently only handle cases at the agency's Appeals Council, to hold hearings in place of the Administrative Law Judges (ALJs) who currently hear them. ALJs would still be allowed to hold hearings even under these regs. It's just that AAJs could start doing it as well. Those regs have just been approved by OMB. This must have been considered a very high priority matter. OMB rarely acts that quickly on regs.

     You may think, AAJs, ALJs, what difference does it make? They're all judges, right? Not really. Unlike ALJs, AAJs enjoy zero decisional independence. There would be nothing to prevent Social Security from imposing quotas on AAJs, telling them they could approve benefits for no more than, let's say 25% of the cases they hear. They can't do that with ALJs. I don't know what point there could possibly be in these regs unless you wanted to remove that decisional independence.

     To be honest, there is something that might prevent Social Security from imposing quotas on AAJs and that is public opposition. My feeling has long been that if ALJs didn't exist, Social Security would have to invent them. As problematic as they can sometimes be, ALJs add a necessary legitimacy to the process. Take them away and you'd soon have a crisis and the AAJs themselves would be screaming the loudest about their lack of decisional independence. I doubt that the people behind these regs realize that. A maximalist, public opposition is a sign I'm on the right track, attitude is part of this Administration's DNA.

     Social Security will make these regs final by publishing them in the Federal Register. Unless they're even more bloody minded than I think, I expect they'll wait until after the election to publish these. 

     They can't make ALJs disappear immediately. Even if you told ALJs they could either become AAJs or be riffed, which would be the harshest way of doing this, it would take months if not years to accomplish.

     If Trump is re-elected, expect to see a big controversy over implementation of these regs. Don't expect knee-jerk support for this from Congressional Republicans. Republicans apply for Social Security disability benefits. In fact, rural areas, where the GOP is strong, produce a higher rate of disability claims than urban areas where Democrats are strong.

     If Trump loses, this will go away, one way or another. The most likely way is the Congressional Review Act that allows Congress to hold an up or down vote on regs adopted in the last few months before a change of Administration. Even the current Senate might well vote these regs down. If that fails a Biden Administration could refuse to implement the regs and could eventually go through the rulemaking process to repeal them.