"Long Covid" And Social Security

Wuhan, China

      Many wonder what effects the Covid-19 pandemic will have on Social Security's disability programs. Will there be many "long Covid" disability claims? The Lancet, one of the most important medical journals in the world, has published a study based upon Covid survivors in Wuhan, China, where Covid-19 was first detected. The survivors were followed up at six and twelve months and compared to similar individuals who had not had Covid.

     At twelve months 49% of the Covid survivors were reporting symptoms. Shortness of breath was reported in 30% at twelve months. Interestingly, 26% were reporting depression or anxiety. Covid survivors were reporting more problems with mobility as well as pain or discomfort that those who had not had Covid. Of those patients who had been working prior to Covid, 88% had returned to work twelve months out. The study concluded that the survivors had a good physical and functional recovery but their health status was still lower than that of similar individuals who had not suffered from Covid.

A Deeper Dive Into The Trustees Report

      From the Social Security Trustees Report:

... The changes in policy for the Deferred Actions for Childhood Arrivals program discussed in III.B, which affect the Social Security program in the first ten years primarily by increasing payroll tax income, increased the tenth year OASI trust fund ratio by 1 percentage point. Changes in demographic assumptions over the short-range period, primarily increased mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic, increased the projected tenth year trust fund ratio for OASI by 6 percentage points. .

     In case you're having trouble following the verbiage, this says that DACA is helping the Trust Funds modestly because DACA members will be paying taxes, as is, sadly, Covid-19 because of the excess deaths. Contrary to right wing fairy tales, immigration is always good for the Trust Funds. On the whole, immigrants pay taxes for many years before they draw Social Security benefits. What's hard to understand about that? The Trust funds are projected to be depleted a bit earlier despite the effects of DACA and Covid-19 because of "several changes in economic data and assumptions."

     More specifically as to mortality, the report says that:

... Preliminary data for 2020 show that while the effects of the pandemic led to significantly higher death rates for those aged 15 and older, the death rates for those under age 15 were significantly lower, though not quite to the same degree. Thus, for ages 15 and over, death rates are assumed to increase above what would have been projected in the absence of the pandemic by 16.4 percent for 2020, 15 percent for 2021, 4 percent for 2022, and 1 percent for 2023. ...

    As best I can tell the Trustees make no assumption about long Covid disability claims. I don't know how they could. It's all speculative at this point.

Trustees Report Finally Released

      From a press release:

The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the long-term financial status of the Social Security Trust Funds. The combined asset reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and DI) Trust Funds are projected to become depleted in 2034, one year earlier than projected last year, with 78 percent of benefits payable at that time. 

The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in 2033, one year sooner than last year’s estimate, with 76 percent of benefits payable at that time. The DI Trust Fund is estimated to become depleted in 2057, eight years earlier than last year’s estimate, with 91 percent of benefits still payable. ...

ERE Workaround

     Social Security has finally issued an alert about the ERE problem that has mostly been blocking access to its online systems for attorneys and others who represent claimant. The alert includes a workaround. Scroll halfway down the page to where it says "'Click this link to go to login page." That seems to work.

Briefs Filed In Puerto Rico SSI Case

      Probably before the end of this year the Supreme Court will hold an oral argument in the case of U.S. v. Vaello-Madero, which presents the issue of whether it is constitutional to deny SSI benefits to U.S. citizens who reside in Puerto Rico. If the Supreme Court holds that it is unconstitutional it is estimated that several hundred thousand Puerto Ricans will file SSI claims. The brief on the merits on behalf of the U.S. was filed on June 7. The brief on the merits on behalf of Mr. Vaello-Madero was filed on August 30.

Online System Failure

      There's a major problem with the system that attorneys use to access their clients' files at Social Security. It's mostly been down since sometime Friday. We're getting the screen you see reproduced here. I've heard reports from some that they can get in but most can't. 

     Social Security has our e-mail addresses. Occasionally, they send out a blast e-mail to us all. For this major system failure? Nada. It's not like they can keep this system failure a secret from us. We know it's not working. A little e-mail saying "We're working on it. We'll let you know once we've got it back up and running" would be appreciated.

     By the way, Social Security employees use a somewhat different version of the same system. Is that working?

Social Security Headcount Declines To Lowest Level Since At Least 2008

  The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) has posted updated numbers showing the headcount of employees at each agency. Here are Social Security's numbers as of June with earlier headcount numbers for comparison:

•  June 2021 59,707
  
• March 2021 60,675
• December 2020 61,816
  
• September 2020 61,447
  
• June 2020 60,515
  
• March 2020 60,659
  
• December 2019 61,969
  
• December 2018 62,946
  
• December 2017 62,777
• September 2017 62,297
• June 2017 61,592
• March 2017 62,183
• December 2016 63,364
• December 2015 65,518
• December 2014 65,430
• December 2013 61,957
• December 2012 64,538
• September 2011 67,136
• December 2010 70,270
• December 2009 67,486
• December 2008 63,733

Good Report From CBO While Social Security Actuary Points Finger At Treasury

      From Marketwatch:

… According to the just-released analysis, Social Security’s Old Age and Survivor Insurance (OASI) trust fund will remain solvent a year longer than previously thought. This is the trust fund from which Social Security benefits are paid. …

This new analysis was produced by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the non-partisan agency that analyzes the budget impact of various legislative proposals. To put its findings in context, it’s helpful to remember that every year the office of Social Security’s chief actuary updates its assessment of the OASI trust fund’s solvency. Its annual report typically is released in the spring.

No such report has been forthcoming this year, however. In an email, the chief actuary’s office told me that the decision about when to release its annual report is not theirs to make but instead is made by the U.S. Treasury Department. An email earlier this summer to that department asking for when this report will be forthcoming went unanswered. …

     Anyone want to speculate on why Treasury is holding this up?