Workforce Decline Continues

    The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) has posted updated numbers showing the headcount of employees at each agency. Note that these numbers do not tell the whole story. They don't account for part time employees nor for overtime. Overtime is a huge part of the story at Social Security. A Full Time Equivalent (FTE) report would cover that but we seldom see FTE reports. I'm not sure why. Here are Social Security's numbers as of June with earlier headcount numbers for comparison:

•  June, 2022 58,332
  
• March, 2022 59,257
  
• December, 2021 60,422
  
• September, 2021 59,808
  
• June 2021 59,707
  
• March 2021 60,675
• December 2020 61,816
  
• September 2020 61,447
  
• June 2020 60,515
  
• March 2020 60,659
  
• December 2019 61,969
  
• December 2018 62,946
  
• December 2017 62,777
• December 2016 63,364
• December 2015 65,518
• December 2014 65,430
• December 2013 61,957
• December 2012 64,538
• December 2010 70,270
• December 2009 67,486
• December 2008 63,733

Social Security An Issue In Campaign 2022

     It is becoming clear that Democrats want to make Social Security a significant campaign issue for the upcoming mid-term election. Yesterday, the President warned that Republicans want to "sunset" Social Security.     

    Of course, the New York Times tried to "both sides" the issue by warning that Social Security is in "limbo" and on "unstable ground" neither of which is true. The Department of Defense isn't funded past midnight Friday. Does that mean that the nation's defense is in "limbo" and on "unstable ground"? 

    Current funding mechanisms for Social Security really aren't what assures that Social Security will remain afloat. Those could always be changed for the worse. Social Security's future is guaranteed because the American people love Social Security and depend heavily upon it. That's not going to change. This means that Republican talk of "sunsetting" Social Security is absurd. You could also say that it's absurd to warn that Social Security could be "sunsetted" if Republicans have their way but at least the President is talking about the hopeless desire of many Republicans.

House Version Of Continuing Resolution Gives Social Security More Operating Funds

     The House version of the Continuing Resolution (CR) that will fund government operations until full year appropriations bills can be passed is out. In general, CRs allow agencies to continue to spend money at the same rate as during the preceding fiscal year.  The Biden Administration had asked that Social Security be allowed to spend money during the CR time period as if the FY 2022 appropriation had been $800 million higher than it actually was. The House bill doesn't go that far. If passed it will allow Social Security to spend money at a rate $400 million higher than during FY 2022. (§148, page 28) That's certainly better than nothing but it isn't nearly enough to help the agency address its severe problems.

Few People Cut Off Disability Benefits Can Work Enough To Support Themselves

     From Outcomes Following Termination of Social Security Disability Insurance by Michael T. Anderson, Monica Farid, Serge Lukashanets, Denise Hoffman and Kai Filion:

...  The paper found the following:

• Among people whose benefits terminated due to medical improvement from 2005 to 2014, 16 percent of former DI-only beneficiaries and 14 percent of former concurrent beneficiaries returned to DI within five years.
• Among people whose benefits terminated due to work from 2005 to 2014, 32 percent of former DI-only beneficiaries and 50 percent of former concurrent beneficiaries returned to DI within five years.
• Fewer than half of former beneficiaries whose benefits terminated due to medical improvement had average post-termination earnings above the poverty threshold. Those whose benefits terminated due to work were more likely to have post-termination earnings above the poverty threshold than those whose termination was due to medical improvement.
• Age and certain diagnoses were strongly associated with earnings below the poverty threshold and return to disability entitlement, especially schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders, and intellectual disabilities. ...

    I think the attitude of many people can be summarized as "It's easy to get on Social Security disability. Except for the 'truly disabled' those drawing benefits are mostly lazy or just wusses who don't have the courage to overcome their disabilities and work. I'd never let that happen to me."  That's the attitude among many of my clients who are themselves trying to get on Social Security disability benefits. Of course, they know themselves to be "truly disabled" without realizing that prior to becoming disabled they would have naively judged someone with their health problems to not be "truly disabled" because they didn't look sick enough. Often my clients have unrealistic expectations of their own ability to recover or overcome their disabilities and delay filing claims for disability benefits for years, until they become destitute, and then feel guilty about going ahead with a disability claim when they finally do.

    This study demonstrates that it's damned difficult to get on Social Security benefits. Those who do should be recognized as "truly disabled." It should be acknowledged that they have little hope of ever again supporting themselves with work. However, we see proposal after proposal that purport to demonstrate a path for getting disability benefits recipients can be returned to work.

CRS On Jarkesy Case

     The Congressional Research Service has a piece out on the implications of the decision of the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals in Jarkesy v. SEC, holding that removal protections for SEC Administrative Law Judges are unconstitutional. Supposedly, there are high constitutional principles at stake in cases such as this but it's mostly people trying to avoid punishment for securities violations. Also, there's basic right wing nihilism that equates thwarting administrative agencies with protecting freedom. Nevertheless, this could certainly affect Social Security.

WEP Reform Still Possible?

     From Roll Call:

Key lawmakers are eyeing a possible year-end tax package as their best shot at offering a fix for a Social Security provision that many on Capitol Hill believe unfairly cuts benefits for public employees who also have government pensions.

The issue was thrust into the spotlight after bipartisan supporters of legislation to permanently boost Social Security payouts by hundreds of dollars a month for nearly 3 million individuals were on the cusp of forcing their bill to the House floor using a special procedural tool.

But House Ways and Means Committee leaders who have been working on their own less expansive compromise plan, one they believe has a better chance of becoming law, turned off the procedural gambit by instead marking the bill up on Sept. 20.

The House’s top tax writers believe they’re close to agreement on addressing the “windfall elimination provision,” which lowers Social Security payouts for individuals who qualify for pensions from their work as teachers, police officers, government employees and other public sector jobs and for Social Security benefits from separate employment. ...

Senators Complain About Late Trustees Reports

From a press release: 

U.S. Senators Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA), Mike Crapo (R-ID), and Senate Finance Committee Republicans sent a letter to the Government Accountability Office (GAO) requesting the agency monitor the Managing Trustee’s flagrant disregard for statutory deadlines.  Required by law, the Medicare and Social Security Trustees reports are to be issued no later than April 1, yet the 2021 and 2022 reports were issued August 31 and June 2, respectively.  ...  

The Biden Administration has repeatedly ignored Congressional inquiries as to why the trustees reports have not been submitted in a timely manner.  Neither Treasury Secretary Yellen nor the Board of Trustees have signaled any intent to modify internal procedure regulating management of the report schedule, nor have they adopted previous GAO recommendations to improve communication with Congress.  It is the responsibility of the Treasury Secretary to provide these reports to Congress in a timely manner, as required by law, or provide Congress and the American people with explanations for late work.  ...

    These delays are annoying but it's not like the Trustees Reports have arrived on time during Republican administrations. I suspect the delays have to do with staffing at Social Security's Office of Chief Actuary but I don't know. The delay certainly isn't a major problem.

WEP And GPO Elimination Bill Faces Obstacles

     From the Monroe (LA) News-Star:

A bill to eliminate the Social Security penalty for workers with government pensions and their spouses hit a snag in the U.S. House this week, forcing Louisiana U.S. Reps. Garret Graves and Julia Letlow into a last-ditch effort to keep it alive.

Graves and Letlow, both Republicans and co-authors of the Social Security Fairness Act (H.R. 82) by Illinois Democrat Rodney Davis, thought they'd secured enough support in August to force a vote on the House floor, but they blamed a procedural maneuver from Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi for stalling the vote.

Davis, Graves and Letlow have scheduled a press conference Thursday morning to announce an effort to secure 218 colleagues' signatures on a petition to trigger a floor vote, but time is running out for the current Congress, which will likely meet only a handful of days before and after the mid-term elections.

"Only when we were on the cusp of forcing a floor vote did Democratic leadership take action to ... essentially bog it down in a backlog," Letlow, of Start, said during a House floor speech Wednesday. ...