Nobody Could Have Foreseen This Problem

From an article by Eric Yoder in Government Executive published on September 1, 2001 (emphasis added):

During the next 10 years, the Social Security Administration's retirement processing workload is projected to increase by one-fifth as the oldest of the 77 million baby boomers enter their 60s. At the same time, the disability insurance workload is projected to rise by one-half as the rest of the boomers hit ages at which they are more likely to file disability claims. By 2020, the retirement workload will increase by one-half and the disability workload by three-fourths over current levels. Meanwhile, claims under the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program for the poor, disabled and elderly are expected to grow by one-fifth by 2020. ...

According to "2010 Vision [a report prepared by the Social Security Administration in 2000]," SSA would need 95,000 to 100,000 work years to handle its projected 2010 workload using current methods. [Social Security's annual staffing is now about 65,000 work years] "We recognize that an infusion of this level of resources is neither likely nor the best means to achieve our vision," it says. Thus the agency plans to make more and better use of technology. ...

Says [Stanford] Ross [a former Commissioner of Social Security], "The agency, I think, is whistling a little in the dark. They're saying, 'Well, if we get this, that and the other thing, we'll do the job. We always have. We'll be OK.' I don't think you'll wind up with the resources you're going to need unless you make your case clear. The beginning of getting the resources is being candid with the Congress and OMB and the President and the public about how deep and serious your problems are.

"Clearly, the number of workers is inadequate for the workload, and, short term, there's no substitute for the number of workers. Longer term, maybe technology and different methods of doing business can substitute for bodies, but I don't think that's true in the short term," he says. "The public is going to be ill-served if these shortfalls in service delivery are not corrected, like, yesterday. It's not being well-served right now in some ways."

This puts into better focus just how irresponsible former Commissioner Barnhart was. She was entering office about the time this was published and, undoubtedly, was made aware of the 2010 Vision report. Instead of vigorously pushing for increased staffing for Social Security, she promised that her "plan" would dramatically improve service at Social Security without any increase in personnel. Indeed, she seemed to have no objection as her agency's staffing was cut.