Nov 17, 2008

Something Fishy About These Numbers















Click on each of the thumbnails to see a November 5, 2008 report that the National Organization of Social Security Claimants Representatives (NOSSCR) obtained from the Social Security Administration on backlogs of claimants awaiting hearings on their Social Security disability claims at each of the hearing offices, each of Social Security's regions and nationally.

Compare the state of the national backlog over time:
  • January 25, 2007 -- 508 days
  • May 25, 2007 -- 523 days
  • July 28, 2007 -- 528 days
  • August 31, 2007 -- 523 days
  • November 30, 2007 -- 500 days
  • February 29, 2008 -- 511 days
  • May 30, 2008 -- 523 days
  • June 27, 2008 -- 529 days
  • July 31, 2008 -- 530 days
  • September 3, 2008 -- 532 days
  • November 5, 2008 -- 476
Does this improvement seem too good to be true? How could there be a 56 day reduction over the course of just 63 days? Is it possible that there has been some fiddling with the method by which these numbers are generated? Just looking at the numbers for the office I am most familiar with, Raleigh, I see a reduction in processing time from 509 days to 497 days yet there has been no surge in productivity locally that I have noticed. If anything, my impression is that things continue to slowly get worse here. I hope this report is true, but this needs an explanation.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think Astrue is trying to get the backlog as short as he can before Obama assumes office. I've had 23 cases, all electronic, transferred to two other ODARs in the last 10 days and am informed none will be worked up and that they're going to be scheduled soon. If this is going on nationwide, that could account for the sudden reduction in the backlog.

Anonymous said...

It is also notable that the national hearing center created to help reduce times has the worst average processing time so far. So much for centralizing operations.

Anonymous said...

September is the last month of the year. Annuals goals for ODAR offices are from October to September. The month of September usually sees abnormally high dispositions because there is the last frantic effort to make annual goals. It has always seemed to me that more cases are paid in September than any other month, and that denials are more poorly written, due to time limitations in writing and editing. Possibly more September cases are remanded because of that

Anonymous said...

Under an obama administration, under performers are getting fit.
Change shall come.All low middle class americans shall be fairly treated.

Black claimant.

Anonymous said...

This a not a report on the size of the backlog. This is a report on the average processing time for cases disposed of in a month. The lower time for October vs. September simply means that ODAR was clearing more cases that hadn't been in the pile as long

Anonymous said...

Some ODAR's are taking cases out of order. I have had hearings recently set as soon as 90 days after hearing request. Do the math when you average a stack of short settings in with the longer ones. The number days pending comes down real quick.

Cristado asked for info on this occurring at the LA conf., which we have done.

Hard to tell if this is office wide or limited to less productive ALJ's trying to improve their personal numbers.

Anonymous said...

Let me echo what others have pointed out. These processing times are for cases disposed of in October. You don't show September's number, which would be interesting and perhaps informative. In the September push, quite a few old cases might have been cleared out, making that month's average processing time quite high. The variable nature of this monthly processing time number is why good managers don't give it great attention. Much more informative is the movement/direction of the "average age of pending cases." That's what NOSSCR should be asking about.

Anonymous said...

Probably end of year push for the oldest cases. A workload year measurement would be more meaningful.

Also, could mean more new cases than usual. Nationwide cases pending has not changed or has gone up slightly.

Anonymous said...

Those who indicated that this is the age of cases going out the door rather than backlog are correct. Average age of pending and average processing time are 2 different things as well. Here we have average processing time only. If you process nothing but new cases you will have lower processing times. For the offices that seem to have magically low average processing time after a period of high times, consider whether they transferred older cases to national hearing center or other places. Right after the transfer, they wre still working through their assigned old dockets. Now, the new cases that are being scheduled for that same office is all most recent. Perceptible drop in average processing time for that office. That's one explanation, there are others

Subhan said...

Locally we have seen an increase in on the record decisions due to recent changes allowing staff attorneys to approve cases. This in turn can significantly affect the average wait time as these cases are typically processed fairly quickly & closed out instead of waiting in the queue. 20 cases approved at 2 years = avg 730 days. 1 case approved in 6 months + 19 cases approved in 2 years = avg 702.5