I am expecting the opposite as employers offer more flexibility and increased wages to fill the glut of jobs on the market. As schools return to normal in the fall and childcare becomes available, I expect to see more people in the workforce overall.
400k left jobs last week, a vast majority of them went to jobs with an increase in pay that averaged 13%, based on the dept of labor data. Thats a real positive, and it appears the worker has a little more power returned to them.
It will be interesting to see how it runs out. There are not that many Long Covid cases and once those folks see what they will be making compared to work they may try to find a position that will work within the limits of their condition.
PC7 overtime was cut drastically in 2021, this resulted in increased backlogs for disability claim processing and post entitlement actions on DIB cases.
However for this Saturday 06/12, there is PC7 overtime for the first time in months for disability examiners, claims specialists. Hopefully this increased overtime will continue. PC7 has had overtime for about 40 years, with only brief lulls, as OT is needed to keep the backlogs under control.
If you follow SSA online (eg LinkedIn), you will have noticed a big uptick in postings for new employees throughout the US. It is my understanding SSA is looking to replace a good percentage of those who retired or left. I have been generally pleased with SSA's pandemic response to my clients' issues.
I would expect SSD filings to be going up. Employee, unemployment, and other benefits that were pandemic-related have been or will be phased-out. We are finding older employees' jobs at greater risk; aches and pains will result in decisions to file T2.
The chart is, frankly, a bit off-putting. One of the greatest surges in T2 filings was when the insurance industry started referring claimants to file. While that may have leveled off, I expect a surge in the private claims will greatly impact the entitlement claims.
In the world of aviation, you don't forget that what goes up must come down. Social Security's actuaries believe that what goes down must come up. Disability applications have been falling steadily since their peak in 2011. Social Security's actuaries have long been assuming they will increase rather sharply. This year's budget projection is entirely consistent with this view--it is not new. A great illustration of this truth can be found in this presentation by Social Security, slide 9 (sorry I can't find a jpg version) https://www.ssa.gov/oact/presentations/scgoss_20200423.pdf
Every year since 2014 they assume that application must start rising soon to get back to what they believe is a likely long-run average. The 2020 projection ins the figure was made before anyone had heard of COVID.
There is no way that office closure is the leading reason for the dip. The dip is largely in SSI claims. Individuals who normally would have filed when laid off from a job are instead getting paid extended, generous unemployment benefits that put them over the income limit for the SSI program. Also, there are very few folks out there without phones.
Many Boomers are aging out of DIB. They either filed and have not reached FRA or they are retiring now. Boomers make up the vast majority of DIB claims, due to their numbers and age.
Just like a lot of other things, as we work our way down the back side of the bell curve of the boom we will see numbers fall. Gen X is much smaller, even if they all filed it wouldnt make that big an increase.
Disability claims in 1-2 years will definitely rise based on Covid. Many will be psych related after losing their jobs and never really being able to pivot into another job. Thought there might be more breathing related claims. But there will be more claims based on the Covid long haulers related to chronic fatigue.
Either way, there will be an avalanche. The SSA as usual is not prepared. Expect backlogs to increase.
I really just don't see this happening. I don't think there is going to be a spike due to COVID related issues. We all know someone who had COVID. We all know someone who had COVID and had fairly significant symptoms. Most probably know someone or know of someone (ie: neighbor's 2nd cousin) that died from it. I honestly don't know of anyone that has had long term, significant symptoms. Not sayin they don't exist, I just don't see them causing any significant spike in DIB claims. They're may be a small spite in SSI claims once the FO reopen, but that's about it.
@11:02 am I doubt there will be any great spike in claims either. Maybe those who represent claimants are hoping for it so they can make more money since that is what most representatives only care about, but there is little proof of such an upcoming spike in claims.
8:24 PM what is it YOU care about? Why are representatives smeared with this claim (...can make more money since that is what most representatives only care about) so often on this blog? Why aren't ALJs and VEs smeared the same way? Have you seen what they make? I found out what the VE made that claimed I did to "jobs" with an expertise that was fantasy land. If I had put what she claimed on a resume, I am sure a company would have been justified in firing me for lying on the resume. It seemed (to me) that the VE and ALJ ONLY cared about denying me. And ALL the AC, the Federal Court and the Appeals Court CARED about was upholding that decision... The TRUTH didn't matter...
The biggest downside to them going up is the agency doesn’t have enough people to process them timely. I didn’t post the comment about reps wanting the number of claims to go up but I’m assuming it has to do with volume. More cases more money? ALJ’s and Claims Reps aren’t paid per case. Wether they process 1 case or 100 makes no difference, the pay is the same. I could care less either way. They pay me to process claims so as long as people are filing I never have to worry about a job. They don’t pay me to care either way about the claimants. I’m just expected to process claims based on the guidelines set forth by Congress and the agency, which I do to the best of my ability.
@Tim VEs and ALJs get paid no matter whether claims are approved or denied. Attorneys only get paid if the claims are approved. Since even the most strict ALJs approve some cases, it's hard to believe that they only care about denying your case, or anyone elses.
I think it is a combination of things. It's well documented that the poor have delayed or interrupted medical treatment a lot during the pandemic. If you know you don't have medical documentation for the disability claim, you're probably going to wait to file until you've got something to back it up. A lot of people with mental disabilities get easily frustrated with a long application, and if you pile onto that spending a long time trying to reach people on the phone at every step of the process it will discourage some from applying or appealing.
It's funny how some Social Security employees blame reps for wanting to get paid. Do you work for free? Reps only get paid if they win. You get paid no matter how poorly of a job you do. Why wouldn't someone want to get paid for the work they do?
I’m in a FO. I would love to get paid based on my quality of work!!! The turnover at SSA would soar though if the government could fire people for producing poor work.
20 comments:
And SSA goes from 70,000 employees in December 2010 to 60,000 in 2021. It is unsustainable. Abolish SSA and give everyone UBI.
I am expecting the opposite as employers offer more flexibility and increased wages to fill the glut of jobs on the market. As schools return to normal in the fall and childcare becomes available, I expect to see more people in the workforce overall.
400k left jobs last week, a vast majority of them went to jobs with an increase in pay that averaged 13%, based on the dept of labor data. Thats a real positive, and it appears the worker has a little more power returned to them.
It will be interesting to see how it runs out. There are not that many Long Covid cases and once those folks see what they will be making compared to work they may try to find a position that will work within the limits of their condition.
@9:19
Give everyone UBI on top of DIB/SSI.
Mostly because they nose-dived with SSA physical offices closed.
@10:28 Totally agree.
PC7 overtime was cut drastically in 2021, this resulted in increased backlogs for disability claim processing and post entitlement actions on DIB cases.
However for this Saturday 06/12, there is PC7 overtime for the first time in months for disability examiners, claims specialists. Hopefully this increased overtime will continue. PC7 has had overtime for about 40 years, with only brief lulls, as OT is needed to keep the backlogs under control.
If you follow SSA online (eg LinkedIn), you will have noticed a big uptick in postings for new employees throughout the US. It is my understanding SSA is looking to replace a good percentage of those who retired or left. I have been generally pleased with SSA's pandemic response to my clients' issues.
I would expect SSD filings to be going up. Employee, unemployment, and other benefits that were pandemic-related have been or will be phased-out. We are finding older employees' jobs at greater risk; aches and pains will result in decisions to file T2.
The chart is, frankly, a bit off-putting. One of the greatest surges in T2 filings was when the insurance industry started referring claimants to file. While that may have leveled off, I expect a surge in the private claims will greatly impact the entitlement claims.
In the world of aviation, you don't forget that what goes up must come down. Social Security's actuaries believe that what goes down must come up. Disability applications have been falling steadily since their peak in 2011. Social Security's actuaries have long been assuming they will increase rather sharply. This year's budget projection is entirely consistent with this view--it is not new. A great illustration of this truth can be found in this presentation by Social Security, slide 9 (sorry I can't find a jpg version) https://www.ssa.gov/oact/presentations/scgoss_20200423.pdf
Every year since 2014 they assume that application must start rising soon to get back to what they believe is a likely long-run average. The 2020 projection ins the figure was made before anyone had heard of COVID.
There is no way that office closure is the leading reason for the dip. The dip is largely in SSI claims. Individuals who normally would have filed when laid off from a job are instead getting paid extended, generous unemployment benefits that put them over the income limit for the SSI program. Also, there are very few folks out there without phones.
Many Boomers are aging out of DIB. They either filed and have not reached FRA or they are retiring now. Boomers make up the vast majority of DIB claims, due to their numbers and age.
Just like a lot of other things, as we work our way down the back side of the bell curve of the boom we will see numbers fall. Gen X is much smaller, even if they all filed it wouldnt make that big an increase.
The point of UBI is to eliminate poverty programs like SSI, SNAP, etc not DIB or the Old Age Pension.
Disability claims in 1-2 years will definitely rise based on Covid. Many will be psych related after losing their jobs and never really being able to pivot into another job. Thought there might be more breathing related claims. But there will be more claims based on the Covid long haulers related to chronic fatigue.
Either way, there will be an avalanche. The SSA as usual is not prepared. Expect backlogs to increase.
I really just don't see this happening. I don't think there is going to be a spike due to COVID related issues. We all know someone who had COVID. We all know someone who had COVID and had fairly significant symptoms. Most probably know someone or know of someone (ie: neighbor's 2nd cousin) that died from it. I honestly don't know of anyone that has had long term, significant symptoms. Not sayin they don't exist, I just don't see them causing any significant spike in DIB claims. They're may be a small spite in SSI claims once the FO reopen, but that's about it.
@11:02 am I doubt there will be any great spike in claims either. Maybe those who represent claimants are hoping for it so they can make more money since that is what most representatives only care about, but there is little proof of such an upcoming spike in claims.
8:24 PM what is it YOU care about? Why are representatives smeared with this claim (...can make more money since that is what most representatives only care about) so often on this blog? Why aren't ALJs and VEs smeared the same way? Have you seen what they make? I found out what the VE made that claimed I did to "jobs" with an expertise that was fantasy land. If I had put what she claimed on a resume, I am sure a company would have been justified in firing me for lying on the resume. It seemed (to me) that the VE and ALJ ONLY cared about denying me. And ALL the AC, the Federal Court and the Appeals Court CARED about was upholding that decision... The TRUTH didn't matter...
The biggest downside to them going up is the agency doesn’t have enough people to process them timely. I didn’t post the comment about reps wanting the number of claims to go up but I’m assuming it has to do with volume. More cases more money? ALJ’s and Claims Reps aren’t paid per case. Wether they process 1 case or 100 makes no difference, the pay is the same. I could care less either way. They pay me to process claims so as long as people are filing I never have to worry about a job. They don’t pay me to care either way about the claimants. I’m just expected to process claims based on the guidelines set forth by Congress and the agency, which I do to the best of my ability.
@Tim
VEs and ALJs get paid no matter whether claims are approved or denied. Attorneys only get paid if the claims are approved.
Since even the most strict ALJs approve some cases, it's hard to believe that they only care about denying your case, or anyone elses.
@1:23
I think it is a combination of things. It's well documented that the poor have delayed or interrupted medical treatment a lot during the pandemic. If you know you don't have medical documentation for the disability claim, you're probably going to wait to file until you've got something to back it up. A lot of people with mental disabilities get easily frustrated with a long application, and if you pile onto that spending a long time trying to reach people on the phone at every step of the process it will discourage some from applying or appealing.
It's funny how some Social Security employees blame reps for wanting to get paid. Do you work for free? Reps only get paid if they win. You get paid no matter how poorly of a job you do. Why wouldn't someone want to get paid for the work they do?
I’m in a FO. I would love to get paid based on my quality of work!!! The turnover at SSA would soar though if the government could fire people for producing poor work.
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