The National Academy of Social Insurance (NASI) sponsored a briefing on Friday where experts discussed the recently released Social Security Trustees report. Social Security's Chief Actuary Stephen Goss, Henry Aaron of the Brookings Institute and Charles Blauhous of the Hudson Institute, among others, spoke. The
visuals prepared by the speakers are available online and are worth a look. Here is an excerpt from the materials prepared by Henry Aaron that caught my eye:
One-year change in value
Vanguard Prime Money Market [Mutual Fund]+ 1.97 %
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index [Mutual Fund] + 3.85 %
[Vanguard] Target Retirement 2010 [Mutual Fund] -19.23 %
[Vanguard] Target Retirement 2050 [Mutual Fund] -32.43 %
S&P 500 Index -35.31 %
[Vanguard] Total International Stock [Mutual Fund] -43.11 %
Social Security + 5.8 %
Social Security = SecurityBy the way, if I had to guess, I would guess that we are likely to see Congress enacting some increase in Social Security benefit payments next year, despite the fact that the statutory cost of living adjustment formula would not grant such an increase. I would be surprised to see any action to address the long term solvency issues with the Social Security trust funds. in the next two years. Barbara Kennelly of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare mentioned giving a "cost of living adjustment" to Social Security recipients despite the lack of an increase in the cost of living when she spoke on Thursday at the NOSSCR Conference. That was the first time I have heard that idea mentioned, but I am pretty sure that it will not be the last time I hear it mentioned. Doing this makes great political sense for Democrats. Yes, I know it is a bit irresponsible. The best defense I can give is that it is not nearly as irresponsible as ending the retirement earnings test, which the Republicans did just after taking control of Congress in 1994.
Update: Actually, the end of the retirement earnings test came in 1996 for those above full retirement age. It was part of the
Contract with America Advancement Act.