The State Of The Trust Funds

    Stephen Goss, Social Security's Chief Actuary, testified before the House Budget Committee yesterday. There was nothing new in his testimony to those who follow the state of the Social Security trust funds but most people don't follow the state of the trust funds so here is an excerpt from the conclusion of Goss' written remarks:

We are at the beginning of a substantial and permanent shift in the age distribution of our population. This shift was caused by the drop in birth rates from the long-time average level of about three children per woman through 1965, to just two children per woman since 1975. By 2040, there will be only two workers for every OASDI [Old Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance] beneficiary, down from three workers per beneficiary throughout the period 1975 through 2008. As a result, the cost of Social Security will shift from about 4.5 percent of GDP to a stable level of 6 percent of GDP [Gross Domestic Product] by 2040. Currently scheduled tax revenue will remain at about 4.5 percent of GDP. Making Social Security solvency sustainable will therefore require a choice to:

• Increase revenue by 33 percent after 2035,

• Reduce benefits by 25 percent after 2035, or

• Enact some combination of these changes

In the absence of legislation, the combined OASDI Trust Fund reserves are projected to become exhausted in 2036, with only 75 percent of presently scheduled benefits payable thereafter through 2085.

      Note that people living longer isn't the problem. It's women having fewer children. I suppose that Republican plans to make it more difficult to obtain contraceptives would do something about that.
     Goss listed the various proposals for dealing with the situation -- apart from making it more difficult to obtain contraception. My favorite is to lift the cap on the Social Security tax so that it covers all wages. It's simple. It takes care of the problem. It raises taxes only on those most able to bear the tax increase. Most people will be unaffected.

Llewellyn Washington Woolford Sr. Passes

     From the Baltimore Sun:

Llewellyn Washington Woolford Sr., a retired Social Security Administration attorney who was a past Howard County Human Relations Commission chairman, died of stroke complications Feb. 22 at his Columbia home. He was 81. ...

In 1956, he was sworn in as a lawyer in Annapolis. He then formed a law firm, Howard, Woolford and Leeds, on Pleasant Street.

In 1965, Mr. Woolford became an early African-American attorney in the Social Security Administration's Office of the General Counsel. He served for nearly 30 years, family members said.

You Get What You Pay For

     North Carolina Disability Determination Services (DDS), which makes determinations on Social Security disability claims at the initial and reconsideration levels, has posted online its fee schedule for the medical examinations that it orders. I am pretty sure that this is not standardized nationally but I'll bet that NC isn't far different from most states on this score.
     Complain all you want about consultative examinations but don't expect improvement with this kind of fee schedule.

Social Security Workforce Declining Rapidly

The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) has posted updated figures for the number of employees at Social Security. Here they are, with earlier numbers for comparison purposes.

• December 2011 65,911
• September 2011 67,136
• June 2011 67,773
• March 2011 68,700
• December 2010 70,270
• June 2010 69,600
• March 2010 66,863
• December 2009 67,486
• September 2009 67,632
• December 2008 63,733
• September 2008 63,990
• September 2007 62,407
• September 2006 63,647
• September 2005 66,147
• September 2004 65,258
• September 2003 64,903
• September 2002 64,648
• September 2001 65,377
• September 2000 64,521
• September 1999 63,957
• September 1998 65,629

     That's 6% decline since Republicans gained control of the House of Representatives. Just imagine what they could do with control of the White House and Senate.

Insurance Companies Worry About Social Security's Operating Budget

     From LifeHealthPro, an insurance industry website:

Michael Astrue, commissioner of the Social Security Administrator (SSA), is begging Congress to give the agency at least as much funding as it has requested for fiscal year 2013.

The new fiscal year starts Oct. 1.

SSA has asked Congress to provide $11.9 billion in budget authority for 2013, up from $11.6 billion for 2012.

For private disability insurers, the statue (sic) of SSA's Social Disability Insurance (SSDI) program is a high priority

     It's a high priority for them since long term disability benefits paid by insurers is reduced by Social Security disability benefits. Slowdowns in processing and paying Social Security disability claims cost these insurance companies money. Perhaps it happens and I don't see it but I've never seen any sign that the insurance companies lobby for increased appropriations for Social Security. 

Obesity And Social Security

     Christopher Pashler of the State University of New York at Buffalo has done a study of Social Security's treatment of disability claims filed by the obese since the agency rescinded its obesity Listing. His conclusion is that the elimination of the Listing has made the agency less able to render consistent decisions in obesity cases and that the obese are more vulnerable to bias. I will warn you that Pashler's study contains way too many literary references, especially if you count references to The Simpsons as literary.

     I think that a lot of other people, even including Pashler, who consider this issue in the abstract, have trouble comprehending the reality that Social Security is denying the disability claims of people who weigh over 600 pounds. Have you ever met someone who weighed this much? Can you really understand their difficulties? Do you feel revulsed by the idea of someone weighing this much? Do you think it appropriate to deny disability claims based upon that revulsion?

     I have always had the gut feeling that the obesity listing was eliminated to please the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). My guess is that OMB wanted Social Security to save some money on disability claims somehow and Social Security chose to hit on the obese. Can anyone tell me whether my gut feeling is correct?

Republicans Continue Their Quest For Electoral Disaster

     In a major policy address today at a nearly empty Ford Field, Mitt Romney promised that if he is elected President that he would "slowly raise the retirement age" and "slow the growth in benefits for higher-income retirees" meaning that he wants to means test benefits. He believes that saying this will help him get elected President. Most people believe he's the most electable Republican.

Budget Committee Schedules Hearing

     The House Budget Committee, chaired by Paul Ryan, the fellow who persuaded Congressional Republicans to embrace a plan to end Medicare, has a hearing scheduled for February 28 on Strengthening Health and Retirement Security. The Chief Actuaries of the Social Security Administration and the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services are scheduled to testify.