I Don't Know Where This Is Headed

     From a notice that Social Security is having published in the Federal Register on January 2:

We are seeking information and comments from other Federal agencies' regarding their intention to use the WHO ICF[World Health Organization International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health] as a standard for coding functional capacity with broad potential for application to the business processes of other Federal agencies and researchers throughout the world. We invite other interested Federal agencies involved in disability monitoring to collaborate with us to evaluate an ICF-based standard for coding functional capacity in Federal disability programs. We also invite interested public and private parties to comment on appropriate Federal direction on capturing data on functioning. ...

The WHO ICF is a classification of health and health-related domains, including a list of body functions and a list of domains of activity and participation (see www.who.int/classification/icf/en/). The ICF for Children and Youth (ICF-CY) is a derived version of the ICF designed to record characteristics of the developing child and the influence of environments surrounding the child. The ICF and the ICF-CY reflect WHO’s framework for measuring health and disability at both individual and population levels. ...

We are studying several uses for ICF coding. We could use it, for example, to describe function in activities of daily living, to describe residual functional capacity (to satisfy a specific set of disability criteria), or to develop a compendium of job descriptions that includes mental and physical functional requirements.

     You can order your copy of the ICF for $50.

Cliffhanger

     The fiscal cliff negotiations drag on. At this point, preventing the sequester is on the table and the chained CPI change for Social Security's Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) is off the table. Republicans are even denying that they want chained CPI! 

     If this is not resolved, Social Security employees should soon expect to receive a furlough warning. As an example of what's coming, the Department of Defense is preparing to notify 800,000 civilian employees that they can expect several weeks of unpaid leave. However, the White House has not informed agencies of exactly how sequestration will be administered. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) was not even returning phone calls on the subject last week!

No Surprise

     The user fee that attorneys pay for Social Security to withhold their fees from their clients' past due benefits will remain at 6.3% in 2013.

Sequestration Nearly Inevitable

     The Washington Post reports that sequestration seems all but certain to take effect on January 1. Most likely, it will last a couple of months. Social Security could avoid furloughs if sequestration were only to last a few days but it's hard to imagine such a huge cut in the agency's operating budget over a couple of months not resulting in furloughs.

     I was once a federal employee. I know many federal employees. I know that job security is an extraordinarily important consideration for most federal employees. I feel for the federal employees who may suffer partial or total furlough as a result of sequestration but I feel more for the members of the public who will suffer as a result of sequestration. This is a big deal.

     This shouldn't have happened.

No Chained CPI In Fiscal Cliff Deal But No Sequestration Fix Either

     In Social Security terms, the reports about the deal currently being worked out by Senate leaders to avoid the fiscal cliff are remarkable for what's not being discussed -- the chained CPI method of computing Social Security's cost of living adjustment (COLA) and any solution for the sequestration that will dramatically cut Social Security's operating budget on January. Also, the expected deal would do nothing about the debt ceiling problem.

Union Not A Big Fan Of Commissioner Astrue

     Council 220 of the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), the union that represents most Social Security employees is not a big fan of lame duck Commissioner Astrue. The Council's current newsletter includes a piece sharply criticizing Astrue. According to the union, Astrue promised during the confirmation process that he would have an "open door" for the AFGE but held only a couple of meetings with union representatives before breaking off all contacts. According to the union, Astrue seemed to be mad that the union had publicly criticized him. The union says that no only would Astrue not meet with its leaders, he would not respond to letters or acknowledge invitations to speak. The piece also criticizes Astrue for doing less than he could have to obtain an adequate budget for his agency:

Although the Commissioner testified before Congress regarding the impact of reduced resources on the ability of SSA to provide adequate services to the public, he has not aggressively addressed this issue with the public. The person in charge of SSA [Social Security Administration] should maintain a highly visible profile, demanding Congress provide the agency with sufficient dollars to provide the services the American public demands and deserves.

Since SSA is an Independent Agency, the Commissioner has a unique opportunity to communicate with the public the need for more resources to prevent office closings, to allow the public more face-to-face access to SSA employees and to provide assistance to the public for all their SSA/SSI issues.

Social Security News Retrospective For 2012

     Here are my picks for the most interesting news reported here in 2012:

• January 2 -- Carolyn Colvin, Social Security's Deputy Commissioner, speaking to the National Council of Social Security Management Associations (NCSSMA), says "We can no longer do more with less. We will do less with less ..."
• January 11 -- Insurers benefit from changes in Social Security death master files since they will not be forced to pay on many life insurance contracts where the beneficiaries are unaware of the insurance contract.
• January 14 -- Social Security lets contract for construction of new national data center.
• February 17 -- Social Security's Office Of Inspector General (OIG) issues report on "outlier" Administrative Law Judges (ALJs)
• February 20 -- A Rupert Murdock controlled media outlet starts the meme that the cause of the increase in the number of people filing claims for Social Security disability benefits is high unemployment rather than the aging of the baby boomer population. This new meme rapidly becomes the accepted wisdom of the political right if not the entire country.
• March 1 -- Social Security and the AFGE reach conceptual agreement on a new union contract.
• March 5 -- A Harris poll shows that only 12% of the population wants to cut Social Security benefits. All Republican candidates for President at the time wanted to cut Social Security benefits.
• March 16 -- Wanting to seem "serious" and apparently believing that Republicans were going to win the election, AARP signals its openness to cutting Social Security benefits. AARP must not have read the Harris poll.
• April 23 -- Social Security trustees report shows that the Disability Insurance trust fund is likely to run out of funds in 2016.
• May 9 -- Withholding the identity of the Administrative Law Judge (ALJ) holding a Social Security disability hearing isn't enough. The National Hearing Center ALJs will have to travel to hold hearings.
• May 14 -- Jacob and Sophia top the lists of most popular baby names.
• May 23 -- At a Congressional hearing, Social Security Commissioner Michael Astrue says that attorneys representing Social Security disability claimants have no duty to submit adverse evidence on their clients.
• May 31 -- Social Security announces that because of lack of funding the Work Incentives Planning and Assistance (WIPA) and Protection and Advocacy for Beneficiaries of Social Security (PABSS) programs will be terminated at the end of September
• June 14 -- Social Security awards $233 million contract to CenturyLink, Inc. for data networking services, the largest such contract ever awarded by the federal government.
• July 17 -- Women protest outside Social Security field office in Napa, California after woman was told she could not breastfeed at the office.
• July 27 -- Study shows that the majority of women retire on Social Security benefits at age 62. Only 18% of women wait until full retirement age of 66 or after to retire.
• August 2 -- National Organization of Social Security Claimants Representatives (NOSSCR) issues its first-ever press release.
• August 17 -- Ammunition purchases by Social Security's Office of Inspector General (OIG) draw public attention.
• September 13 -- Senator Tom Coburn issues report criticizing allowance of Social Security disability claims. The report expresses outrage that disability claims are approved even though some evidence contradicts approval of the claims.
• October 31 -- The ARC (Association for Retarded Citizens) gives Social Security Commissioner Michael Astrue its 2012 President's award for demonstrating a steadfast commitment to addressing the needs of disabled people, an award which astonishes some.
• November 1 -- Many Social Security field offices in the Northeast are closed due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy.
• November 8 -- Social Security announces that because of funding cuts its field offices will start closing at noon on Wednesdays beginning in January.
• November 30 -- Explosion at Arizona Social Security field office. No one is injured.
• December 12 -- Salvatore Petti, who was Treasurer of Social Security's central office Employees Activities Association for 40 years, is arrested for diverting large sums of money from the Association to support his lavish lifestyle.
• December 18 -- Two of Commissioner Michael Astrue's initiatives, the secret ALJ policy and the go-it-alone approach to a new occupational information system, collapse as his term draws to a close.
• December 22 -- Social Security employee reprimanded for excessive flatulence.

Is Chained CPI More Accurate?

     The "chained CPI" method of computing Social Security's Cost of Living Adjustments (COLAs) is being touted on two grounds. First, it saves money. Second, it's more accurate. Undoubtedly, it would save money but the second point is debatable. The chained CPI method is based upon the observation that if green beans get more expensive, consumers are more likely to substitute broccoli. A COLA based in small part on the price of green beans may be inaccurate because consumers will substitute an equivalent lower priced item. However, as Dean Baker at FDL argues, there is no proof that the chained CPI method is more accurate when applied to the elderly. The Bureau of Labor Statistics computes the CPI-E, the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly, that takes into account the increased health care expenses of the elderly among other age related spending differences. The CPI-E has been running higher than the chained CPI but has not been used in the computation of the Social Security COLA. There is no chained CPI-E, that is a chained CPI computed for the elderly. No one knows what it would show but the odds are high that a chained CPI-E would not be so unfavorable for the elderly as the plain chained CPI. It might be even more favorable for the elderly than what is being used currently to compute the Social Security COLA.

     In the end, the chained CPI has one real advantage -- it would save money. There's no proof that the chained CPI method of computing the COLA would be more accurate. Of course, I should mention that the chained CPI method has one big political advantage. It's so abstruse that few Social Security recipients understand it. However, they could probably understand a television ad criticizing a politician for "cutting" Social Security and that ad would have the advantage of being accurate.