Social Security has posted updated statistics showing the number of disability claims filed and approved through the end of September. Here are the numbers of claims received at Disability Determination Services (DDS) by quarter this year:
- Q1 -- 325,683
- Q2 -- 306,518
- Q3 -- 296,974
And here are the numbers of awards at all levels:
- Q1 -- 196,386
- Q2 -- 163,629
- Q3 -- 149,909
There is a very important footnote to these stats telling us that:
Because the application data are tabulated on a weekly basis, some months include 5 weeks of data while others include only 4 weeks. This weekly method of tabulation accounts for much of the month-to-month variation in the monthly application data. This method also occasionally causes quarterly data to have either 12 or 14 weeks of data instead of 13 weeks, annual data may include an extra week of data.
Despite the footnote, it seems clear that there has been a big decline in the number of disability claims filed and approved over the course of 2020. If you were of the opinion that the number of disability claims is strongly related to the unemployment rate, you've been proven spectacularly wrong, at least for this year. And don't try to say the decline in disability claims filed is due to the special Pandemic Unemployment Assistance. Those ended on July 31. If that was what was holding down the number of disability claims we should have seen a dramatic increase in claims filed after it ended but, instead, they kept going down.
I think that the number of claims filed is down due in large part to the increased difficulty that people have filing claims. I don't know what else it could be. Some people need more help than others.