Social Security turned 75 last week. It should have been a joyous occasion, a time to celebrate a program that has brought dignity and decency to the lives of older Americans.But the program is under attack, with some Democrats as well as nearly all Republicans joining the assault. Rumor has it that President Obama’s deficit commission may call for deep benefit cuts, in particular a sharp rise in the retirement age. ...
[W]here do claims of crisis come from? To a large extent they rely on bad-faith accounting. In particular, they rely on an exercise in three-card monte in which the surpluses Social Security has been running for a quarter-century don’t count — because hey, the program doesn’t have any independent existence; it’s just part of the general federal budget — while future Social Security deficits are unacceptable — because hey, the program has to stand on its own....
And having invented a crisis, what do Social Security’s attackers want to do? They don’t propose cutting benefits to current retirees; invariably the plan is, instead, to cut benefits many years in the future. So think about it this way: In order to avoid the possibility of future benefit cuts, we must cut future benefits. O.K.
What’s really going on here? Conservatives hate Social Security for ideological reasons: its success undermines their claim that government is always the problem, never the solution. But they receive crucial support from Washington insiders, for whom a declared willingness to cut Social Security has long served as a badge of fiscal seriousness, never mind the arithmetic. ...
Aug 16, 2010
Three-Card Monte
From Paul Krugman writing in the New York Times:
Social Security And "Improper Payments"
As a result of a Presidential order, Social Security has developed a Reducing Improper Payments web page. Here is Social Security's summary of its recent Title II overpayment and underpayment experience.
By the way, this does not include as underpayments the benefits going to disability claimants who are finally paid back benefits after lengthy appeals. If those were included the underpayment rate would be multiplied by at least ten.
RSDI Improper Payments Experience FY 2006 – FY 2009 | ||||
| FY 2006 | FY 2007 | FY 2008 | FY 2009 |
Total Payments | ||||
Dollars in Millions | $545,000 | $576,800 | $607,210 | $659,565 |
Underpayments | ||||
Dollars in Millions | $680 | $754 | $495 | $619 |
Target Rate | ≤0.20% | ≤0.20% | ≤0.20% | ≤0.20% |
Actual Rate | 0.12% | 0.13% | 0.08% | 0.09% |
Overpayments | ||||
Dollars in Millions | $1,824 | $1,209 | $2,041 | $2,547 |
Target Rate | ≤0.20% | ≤0.20% | ≤0.20% | ≤0.20% |
Actual Rate | 0.33% | 0.21% | 0.34% | 0.37% |
By the way, this does not include as underpayments the benefits going to disability claimants who are finally paid back benefits after lengthy appeals. If those were included the underpayment rate would be multiplied by at least ten.
Aug 15, 2010
Change Coming On Same Sex Marriages?
No federal agency would be more affected than Social Security if same sex marriage were to become a national right. The idea that this will happen, perhaps in the next couple of years, is no longer far-fetched. Below is the composite public polling on the issue.
Aug 14, 2010
Aug 13, 2010
Presidential Proclamation
President Obama has issued a proclamation in honor of Social Security's 75th birthday coming up tomorrow. I have not heard of any event involving the President honoring this occasion. I find this disappointing. I know that many Social Security field offices held open houses this week in honor of the anniversary. I am unaware of any event at Social Security's central offices but that does not mean that there was no such event.
Astrue On 75th Anniversary
From a piece supposedly written by Social Security Commissioner Michael Astrue that must have been sent out to newspapers by Social Security's press office:
Social Security, the most successful domestic program in our nation’s history, is celebrating its 75th anniversary. ...
Today, millions of retirees live in dignity thanks to their monthly Social Security benefit payment. Over the decades, Social Security expanded to not only protect against the risk of poverty in old age, but also the economic risk of career-ending disability and the premature death of a worker. ...As we celebrate 75 years, I reflect on how Social Security was there for my family, how proud I am to work for this remarkable program, and how lucky I am to lead such a talented and compassionate work force.
I have two wonderful children who entered the work force in the past year. One is being called up for active military duty in October and the other will teach inner-city children. It is imperative that they and millions of other young Americans have confidence that we will continue to honor the great inter-generational contract that is Social Security.
It is in this spirit that President Barack Obama established the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform that in December will make recommendations regarding the future of Social Security. ...
Aug 12, 2010
Social Security Reduces Poverty
From the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities:
Social Security benefits play a vital role in reducing poverty. Without Social Security, according to the latest available Census data (for 2008), 19.8 million more Americans would be poor. Although most of those kept out of poverty by Social Security are elderly, nearly a third are under age 65, including 1.1 million children. ...
| TABLE 1: Effect of Social Security on Poverty, 2008 | |||
| Age Group | Percent in Poverty | Number Lifted Out of Poverty by Social Security | |
| Excluding Social Security | Including Social Security | ||
| Children Under 18 | 20.5 | 19.0 | 1,117,000 |
| Adults Aged 18-64 | 14.5 | 11.7 | 5,281,000 |
| Elderly Aged 65 and Over | 45.2 | 9.7 | 13,410,000 |
| Total, All Ages | 19.8 | 13.2 | 19,808,000 |
| Memorandum: | |||
| Women Aged 65 and Over | 49.7 | 11.9 | 8,120,000 |
| Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 2009. | |||
Brace Yourself: OMB Clears Mental Listings
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which is part of the White House, has just approved a set of amendments to Social Security's mental impairment listings. The notice says that changes were made in the amendments while they were under review.
OMB had approved a set of amendments to the mental impairment listings in the waning days of the George W. Bush Administration but Social Security Commissioner Michael Astrue declined to publish that set. We have no way of knowing how that set of amendments differed from the set just approved by OMB. We have no way of knowing what changes were made in the proposal while it was pending at OMB this time. In fact, we have no way of knowing what is in this set until it is published in the Federal Register.
Amendments to the mental impairment listings are potentially quite controversial. These listings have a greater effect than any other listings. Mental illness is among the most important causes for disability. Mental illness remains a controversial topic with the public, many of whom regard it as largely imaginary. Over the decades that I have been involved with Social Security, I have seen the agency take somewhat extreme positions on the evaluation of mental disability.
I should know better than to make predictions but I will do so anyway. I predict that Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to be found disabled as a result of mental retardation. I have never understood why, but this group has been at the top of Social Security's hit list for about a decade. I also predict that Social Security will make it more difficult for adults to be found disabled as a result of bipolar disorder and dramatically more difficult for children to be found disabled as a result of bipolar disorder. Maybe, they will propose to make it less difficult for schizophrenics to be found disabled. They ought to. They may try to slip in something to alter the standards for determining disability for those who have both a substance abuse disorder and another mental disorder. Anything along that line would be extraordinarily controversial and might not withstand judicial review. One safe prediction is that the preamble to the proposed mental impairment listings will be very, very long.
Expect that these proposed changes will appear in the Federal Register soon, perhaps next week. The public will have an opportunity to comment. Social Security must consider these comments and again obtain OMB approval before this proposal can be made official.
OMB had approved a set of amendments to the mental impairment listings in the waning days of the George W. Bush Administration but Social Security Commissioner Michael Astrue declined to publish that set. We have no way of knowing how that set of amendments differed from the set just approved by OMB. We have no way of knowing what changes were made in the proposal while it was pending at OMB this time. In fact, we have no way of knowing what is in this set until it is published in the Federal Register.
Amendments to the mental impairment listings are potentially quite controversial. These listings have a greater effect than any other listings. Mental illness is among the most important causes for disability. Mental illness remains a controversial topic with the public, many of whom regard it as largely imaginary. Over the decades that I have been involved with Social Security, I have seen the agency take somewhat extreme positions on the evaluation of mental disability.
I should know better than to make predictions but I will do so anyway. I predict that Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to be found disabled as a result of mental retardation. I have never understood why, but this group has been at the top of Social Security's hit list for about a decade. I also predict that Social Security will make it more difficult for adults to be found disabled as a result of bipolar disorder and dramatically more difficult for children to be found disabled as a result of bipolar disorder. Maybe, they will propose to make it less difficult for schizophrenics to be found disabled. They ought to. They may try to slip in something to alter the standards for determining disability for those who have both a substance abuse disorder and another mental disorder. Anything along that line would be extraordinarily controversial and might not withstand judicial review. One safe prediction is that the preamble to the proposed mental impairment listings will be very, very long.
Expect that these proposed changes will appear in the Federal Register soon, perhaps next week. The public will have an opportunity to comment. Social Security must consider these comments and again obtain OMB approval before this proposal can be made official.
A Badge Of Seriousness
From Paul Krugman's blog:
A lot of the Beltway establishment has a thing about Social Security — in a way, by the way, they don’t have a thing about Medicare, which is a vastly more important long-run problem. No matter how much you talk logic or numbers, they’re obsessed with the idea that Social Security must be cut; as I wrote back when, somewhere back in the 90s talking tough on Social Security became a badge of seriousness, and facts just can’t make a dent in that social convention.
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