Sep 15, 2010

Unexamined Assumptions

This is, I think, the key sentence from the Re-Imagining Social Security report that first came to light recently:
Given the projected workload increases due to the number of individuals retiring over the next two decades and other demographic trends, electronic self-service appears to be the only solution that will enable SSA to process future transaction volumes.
Really? Why?

First, if the members of this subcommittee think that handling retirement claims is a huge challenge for the Social Security Administration, either they were poorly briefed by Social Security or they were not paying attention. Encouraging those who are retiring to file their claims electronically is a good idea but even if every last retirement claim is filed electronically, Social Security's situation is not much better than it is today. Retirement claims are by far the most common type of claim filed with Social Security but they are so easy to process that they account for a surprisingly modest part of Social Security's workload.

The real problems are the survivor claims, the disability claims and appeals and SSI. Disability and survivor claims are mentioned in the report but I get the distinct feeling that the Panel members had no idea of the challenges they present. They simply assumed these problems to be minor and easily addressed. Social Security's history over the last 40 years tells us the problems with disability claims are intractable and that the problems presented by survivor claims are so complex that Social Security has scarcely tried to tackle them. I looked through the report and the term "SSI" is not even mentioned. How do you do a report on Social Security's future and not mention SSI? My experience is that SSI is irreducibly complex. Again, what kind of briefings did the Panel members get? Were they paying attention to the briefings they did receive? Panel members seem to have made the naive mistake of thinking that Social Security's employees are mainly involved in handling retirement claims. This report is directed not at the real Social Security Administration but at a fantasy agency that exists only in their imagination.

Why is it assumed that Social Security cannot get future appropriations sufficient to allow some reasonable degree of personal service to claimants? It is only by making the assumption that this is impossible that you get something like this report. History suggests that Democrats are quite concerned that there be a reasonable degree of personal service to Social Security claimants. While Republicans are more apt to give this only lip service, they have not been unconcerned with the political consequences of poor public service at Social Security. Even President George W. Bush, the most right wing President that we are likely to ever have, was not unconcerned with service at Social Security. He was consistent in giving Social Security a better break on appropriations than just about any domestic agency. Politicians of all stripes are eager to cut government costs by substituting technology for civil servants but I see no basis for a fundamental assumption that appropriations for customer service at Social Security are going to dry up. If the computers cannot be made to do the work, there will be people available to do the work. The real question is the extent to which information technology can be made to substitute for Social Security employees. This Panel had little idea what it is that Social Security's employees actually do so they had little idea of the complexity of the issues presented when trying to substitute information technology for warm bodies in this context.

Getting an outside opinion is a useful exercise but only if the outsiders know what the facts are. These outsiders know so little that they could do no more than muddy the waters.

Sep 14, 2010

Chief ALJ On Receipt Of Unemployment Insurance Benefits


Click on the page once or twice to see it full size.

Prison Hearings

From a memo issued by Social Security's Chief Judge:
Hearing offices often have difficulty scheduling an in-person or video-teleconference (VTC) hearing when an individual is held in a place of confinement (jail or prison). To reduce delay in adjudicating these cases ... a hearing may be held by telephone for confined individuals. ...

A hearing by telephone cannot be scheduled if the confined individual objects in any manner.

Alan Simpson and AARP

From the Columbia Journalism Review:

[While serving in the Senate, Alan Simpson, the co-chair of the President's Deficit Reduction Commission] disagreed with the AARP’s [American Association of Retired Persons] positions on Medicare and Social Security, [and] believed the group was obstructing budget cuts that Republicans needed to make in order to offset a planned round tax cuts. Simpson held hearings on the AARP’s finances. “I’m a chairman. I can have hearings,” he boasted to reporters in the Capitol corridor, dancing a little jig and pumping his arms in the air. A few days before he announced the hearings, Simpson said “People ought to know where their money comes from and what it’s used for.” As I reported at the time, Simpson never produced a smoking gun, but he created plenty of smoke, focusing on irrelevancies like the size of AARP’s new building and its executives’ salaries.

But the AARP recognized what the hearings were really about. At a meeting with AARP’s board and staff, Simpson told them “I want you to know that the intensity of my investigation will be directly related to the intensity of your fight on Medicare.” In an interview then, AARP’s chief lobbyist John Rother told me: “Many people on the right wing realized that AARP was the force to contend with. They realized they wouldn’t get anywhere unless they dealt with us as an institution.”

The nasty streak Simpson has demonstrated lately is nothing new.

Let me hasten to add that AARP should not be above criticism. My opinion is that it is little more than an insurance company posing as a nonprofit grassroots membership group. A genuine grassroots membership group of retired persons would be a far more formidable force than the AARP.

Social Security Hearing Office Average Processing Time Report















From the newsletter of the National Organization of Social Security Claimants Representatives (NOSSCR). Click on each page once or twice to view full size.

Compare the average processing time as it has changed over time:
  • January 25, 2007 -- 508 days
  • May 25, 2007 -- 523 days
  • July 28, 2007 -- 528 days
  • August 31, 2007 -- 523 days
  • November 30, 2007 -- 500 days
  • February 29, 2008 -- 511 days
  • May 30, 2008 -- 523 days
  • June 27, 2008 -- 529 days
  • July 31, 2008 -- 530 days
  • September 3, 2008 -- 532 days
  • November 5, 2008 -- 476 days
  • December 3, 2008 -- 480 days
  • March 8, 2009 -- 499 days
  • April 24, 2009 -- 505 days
  • June 3, 2009 -- 505 days
  • September 29, 2009 -- 472 days
  • July 5, 2010 -- 415 days
  • July 30, 2010 -- 410

Why Do You Need To Study This For Nine Years?

From a press release:
Data Systems International (DSI) announced today that it has been awarded a contract with Abt Associates to implement its industry-leading software, ClientTrack™, as part of the Social Security Administration's Benefits Offset National Demonstration (BOND). ...

Over the next 9 years, the BOND project will track and evaluate nearly 1 million U.S. citizens receiving Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) to assess whether a change in the SSDI benefits structure will improve their employment and income. Currently, recipients lose all of their SSDI income if they exceed certain income limits (i.e., the substantial gainful activity threshold; SGA). As a result, SSDI recipients may not actively pursue work opportunities due to concerns of losing their SSDI income. The solution being evaluated through BOND is to gradually reduce the SSDI benefit by $1 for every $2 above the SGA, thus providing a financial incentive for individuals to return to work and earn income beyond the current SSDI limits.

Sep 13, 2010

It's The Aging Of The Baby Boom Generation

From the Washington Post:

The number of former workers seeking Social Security disability benefits has spiked with the nation's economic problems, heightening concern that the jobless are expanding the program beyond its intended purpose of aiding the disabled.

Applications to the program soared by 21 percent, to 2.8 million, between 2008 and 2009, as the economy was seriously faltering.

The growth is the sharpest in the 54-year history of the program. It threatens the program's fiscal stability and adds to an administrative backlog that is slowing the flow of benefits to those who need them most....

Economists say the program has grown because eligibility rules were loosened in the 1980s.

Poll

See below for excerpts from the Re-Imagining Social Security report.

Dessert Is Ibuprofen

From today's New York Times:
At the Cooper Tire plant in Findlay, Ohio, Jack Hartley, who is 58, works a 12-hour shift assembling tires: pulling piles of rubber and lining over a drum, cutting the material with a hot knife, lifting the half-finished tire, which weighs 10 to 20 pounds, and throwing it onto a rack.

Mr. Hartley performs these steps nearly 30 times an hour, or 300 times in a shift. “The pain started about the time I was 50,” he said. “Dessert with lunch is ibuprofen. Your knees start going bad, your lower back, your elbows, your shoulders.”

He said he does not think he can last until age 66, when he will be eligible for full Social Security retirement benefits. At 62 or 65, he said, “that’s it.”

After years of debate about how to keep Social Security solvent, the White House has created an 18-member panel to consider changes, including raising the retirement age. Representative John A. Boehner, Republican of Ohio and the House minority leader, has called for raising the age as high as 70 in the next 20 years, and many Democrats have endorsed similar steps, against opposition from some liberal groups. The panel will report by Dec. 1, after the midterm elections. ...

A new analysis by the Center for Economic and Policy Research found that one in three workers over age 58 does a physically demanding job like Mr. Hartley’s — including hammering nails, bending under sinks, lifting baggage — that can be radically different at age 69 than at age 62. Still others work under difficult conditions, like exposure to heat or cold, exposure to contaminants or weather, cramped workplaces or standing for long stretches.

In all, the researchers found that 45 percent of older workers, or 8.5 million, held such difficult jobs. For janitors, nurses’ aides, plumbers, cashiers, waiters, cooks, carpenters, maintenance workers and others, raising the retirement age may mean squeezing more out of a declining body.

I have clients who perform that tire building job -- except they are making truck tires. Can you imagine how heavy that work is? I am told that it is rare for an employees to make it to 65 at that plant.

Sep 12, 2010

What Do You Think?

Recommendations from the report of the Re-Imagining Social Security Subcommittee of Social Security's Future Systems Technology Advisory Panel:
Move to an electronic customer self-service model with the goal of moving transactions to the Internet each year until 90% of the business with SSA takes place online.
  • Provide other channels for:
~Complex transactions that are not suited to online execution
~Those who cannot or will not use technology
  • Develop a series of incentives to encourage and direct the public to utilize the electronic self-service model. ...
  • Implement a program to automate the initial disability claim decision that would only require human review for denied claims. ...
  • Lead a government-wide study group to discuss options with other agencies to pilot a single government service center in each region for individuals who need face-to-face service across from different agencies. (For example, IRS, SSA, INS, State Social Services, etc.)
~Consider contracting-out providing the services by third parties vs. each agency.
~Look at the model in some state DMVs. ...

~Consider outsourcing some activities to third parties, e.g. libraries.

[Scenarios demonstrating the Subcommittee's vision for the future]
Disability determination
  • SSA examiner uses [information provided by claimant] along with database of prior determinations
  • Decision support tools provide recommendation
~Statistical analysis and AI [Artificial Intelligence] programs gather information on similar cases and their outcomes and report to examiner
~90% of cases are determined automatically
  • Positive decisions are not reviewed
  • SSA staff reviews rejected claims
In case of an appeal
  • The first hearing is with an AU[?], the claimant and an attorney using Google Wave
  • Face-to-face hearings occur depending on the case backlog and the outcome of the Wave conference
  • A scheduling system assigns cases in backlogged areas to areas that are more lightly loaded for video hearings
  • Decision support for the administrative law judge
~Statistical and Al programs search the database of appeals to report on similar cases and their outcomes