Less To The New House Rule Than Meets The Eye

     From Politico:

[A]n analysis by Social Security’s chief actuary, Stephen Goss, suggests there’s less to the new House rule [restricting the ability of the House to consider legislation to shift money from Social Security's Retirement Trust Fund to the Disability Trust Fund] than meets the eye. That’s because the point of order is triggered only if lawmakers exceed a “0.01 percent” threshold, which equates to a $38.6 billion cap on what any one Congress can move from the retirement fund, Goss told POLITICO.

That leaves too little room for some long-term, multiyear reallocation of payroll tax revenues but it is enough to get past 2016, by Goss’ calculations.

“We’re projecting [disability] trust funds will be depleted in December of 2016. … The shortfall for the ensuing 12 months would come to about $29 billion,” Goss said. “What that means is that we could have a tax rate reallocation that could apply in 2016 or 2016 and 2017 that would generate up to $30 billion or even $35 billion transferred to the [disability] trust fund, which would at least extend its reserve depletion date for one more year.”

Disability Claims And Awards Decreasing Rapidly

     Note that claims filed and awards made have gone down in each of the last three years. Note also that the number of people drawing benefits is almost the same as it was at the end of last year and that the number has gone down in each of the last three months.

Disabled worker beneficiary statistics by calendar year, quarter, and month

		Awards b			In current payment status		Terminations c
Time period	Number of appli- cations a	Number	Increase over prior period	Percent of appli- cations	Number at end of period	Increase over prior period	Number	Increase over prior period	Termi- nation rate
—by calendar year—
2000 .....	1,330,558	621,650	0.19%	46.72%	5,042,334	3.34%	461,626	6.25%	8.72%
2001 .....	1,498,559	691,309	11.21%	46.13%	5,274,183	4.60%	456,258	-1.16%	8.31%
2002 .....	1,682,454	750,464	8.56%	44.61%	5,543,981	5.12%	479,606	5.12%	8.34%
2003 .....	1,895,521	777,905	3.66%	41.04%	5,873,673	5.95%	450,720	-6.02%	7.46%
2004 .....	2,137,531	797,226	2.48%	37.30%	6,201,362	5.58%	466,332	3.46%	7.32%
2005 .....	2,122,109	832,201	4.39%	39.22%	6,524,582	5.21%	494,592	6.06%	7.36%
2006 .....	2,134,088	812,596	-2.36%	38.08%	6,811,679	4.40%	513,292	3.78%	7.28%
2007 .....	2,190,196	823,106	1.29%	37.58%	7,101,355	4.25%	525,012	2.28%	7.14%
2008 .....	2,320,396	895,011	8.74%	38.57%	7,427,203	4.59%	564,518	7.52%	7.34%
2009 .....	2,816,244	985,940	10.16%	35.01%	7,789,113	4.87%	628,478	11.33%	7.79%
2010 .....	2,935,798	1,052,551	6.76%	35.85%	8,204,710	5.34%	646,387	2.85%	7.64%
2011 .....	2,878,920	1,025,003	-2.62%	35.60%	8,576,067	4.53%	656,902	1.63%	7.42%
2012 .....	2,820,812	979,973	-4.39%	34.74%	8,827,795	2.94%	726,432	10.58%	7.90%
2013 .....	2,640,100	884,894	-9.70%	33.52%	8,942,584	1.30%	767,738	5.69%	8.17%
2014 .....	2,521,459	810,973	-8.35%	32.16%	8,954,518	0.13%	793,646	3.37%	8.37%
—by quarter—
2011 Q1	720,119	258,086	-1.49%	35.84%	8,295,845	1.11%	166,219	3.37%	1.96%
2011 Q2	760,621	268,853	4.17%	35.35%	8,403,449	1.30%	162,166	-2.44%	1.89%
2011 Q3	737,468	259,181	-3.60%	35.14%	8,495,983	1.10%	167,036	3.00%	1.93%
2011 Q4	660,712	238,883	-7.83%	36.16%	8,576,067	0.94%	161,481	-3.33%	1.85%
2012 Q1	724,746	249,638	4.50%	34.44%	8,657,739	0.95%	168,420	4.30%	1.91%
2012 Q2	731,817	245,719	-1.57%	33.58%	8,733,461	0.87%	169,456	0.62%	1.90%
2012 Q3	726,026	241,207	-1.84%	33.22%	8,786,049	0.60%	188,311	11.13%	2.10%
2012 Q4	638,223	243,409	0.91%	38.14%	8,827,795	0.48%	200,245	6.34%	2.22%
2013 Q1	680,292	228,922	-5.95%	33.65%	8,853,614	0.29%	201,245	0.50%	2.22%
2013 Q2	691,519	228,909	-0.01%	33.10%	8,892,515	0.44%	189,796	-5.69%	2.09%
2013 Q3	674,292	225,905	-1.31%	33.50%	8,925,372	0.37%	192,523	1.44%	2.11%
2013 Q4	593,997	201,158	-10.95%	33.87%	8,942,584	0.19%	184,174	-4.34%	2.01%
2014 Q1	637,675	196,765	-2.18%	30.86%	8,932,828	-0.11%	203,364	10.42%	2.22%
2014 Q2	662,498	215,638	9.59%	32.55%	8,954,010	0.24%	192,440	-5.37%	2.10%
2014 Q3	642,096	209,492	-2.85%	32.63%	8,958,415	0.05%	204,413	6.22%	2.22%
2014 Q4	579,190	189,078	-9.74%	32.65%	8,954,518	-0.04%	193,429	-5.37%	2.10%
—by month—
13-Oct	199,340	70,800	-7.62%	35.52%	8,936,932	0.13%	59,479	-7.35%	0.65%
13-Nov	226,149	68,375	-3.43%	30.23%	8,941,660	0.05%	63,357	6.52%	0.70%
13-Dec	168,508	61,983	-9.35%	36.78%	8,942,584	0.01%	61,338	-3.19%	0.67%
14-Jan	230,401	61,479	-0.81%	26.68%	8,930,246	-0.14%	71,266	16.19%	0.78%
14-Feb	196,030	64,081	4.23%	32.69%	8,929,419	-0.01%	64,568	-9.40%	0.71%
14-Mar	211,244	71,205	11.12%	33.71%	8,932,828	0.04%	67,530	4.59%	0.74%
14-Apr	210,051	77,130	8.32%	36.72%	8,942,232	0.11%	66,821	-1.05%	0.73%
14-May	248,143	66,764	-13.44%	26.91%	8,947,220	0.06%	61,970	-7.26%	0.68%
14-Jun	204,304	71,744	7.46%	35.12%	8,954,010	0.08%	63,649	2.71%	0.70%
14-Jul	190,808	64,142	-10.60%	33.62%	8,951,519	-0.03%	66,502	4.48%	0.73%
14-Aug	255,285	68,810	7.28%	26.95%	8,952,842	0.01%	67,972	2.21%	0.75%
14-Sep	196,003	76,540	11.23%	39.05%	8,958,415	0.06%	69,939	2.89%	0.77%
14-Oct	243,114	64,139	-16.20%	26.38%	8,957,699	-0.01%	65,657	-6.12%	0.72%
14-Nov	171,326	61,055	-4.81%	35.64%	8,956,269	-0.02%	62,271	-5.16%	0.68%
14-Dec	164,750	63,884	4.63%	38.78%	8,954,518	-0.02%	65,501	5.19%	0.72%

Source: Office of Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Senator Opposes Social Security Cuts

     Sherrod Brown, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee says that Democrats must not give an inch on Social Security. He opposes any cuts in Social Security disability. 

Colvin Not Re-Nominated So Far

President Obama has made a number of re-nominations since the beginning of this Congress. Carolyn Colvin's name is not on the list

Why Do Some States Have High Levels Of Disability?

From the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

A Collective Yawn

     I can't find any sign that the news media are picking up the story of indictments for alleged Social Security disability fraud in Puerto Rico. Maybe local media in Puerto Rico are covering this but even Fox News isn't covering the story.

    So far, I'm not sensing any momentum behind the campaign to cut Social Security disability.

Broadcast E-Mail On Disability Fraud

A Message To All SSA and DDS Employees

Subject:  Fraud Prevention and You

Date:  January 15, 2015

The Department of Justice in Puerto Rico today announced the indictment of 40 individuals, including a medical provider, on charges relating to SSA disability fraud.  These indictments demonstrate the effectiveness of our numerous fraud detection and prevention initiatives, which rely heavily on the continued vigilance of our SSA and DDS employees.  SSA employees identified and reported this potential fraud to our Office of the Inspector General (OIG), and provided analysis to OIG during the investigation.  The success of the investigation and the resulting indictments can be directly attributed to the ongoing partnership and collaboration among SSA, the DDSs, OIG, and the Department of Justice .

Preserving the public’s trust in our programs and reducing improper payments is a critical element of our work.  As you know, one of the key elements of our strategic plan is to prevent fraud, waste, and abuse.  We take pride in our efforts to reduce improper payments as we aggressively seek to ensure that only those entitled to benefits receive them.

We have undertaken a number of measures recently to combat fraud and abuse in the disability program, including:

• The establishment of the Office of Anti-Fraud Programs to lead our anti-fraud efforts;
• The re-establishment of our National Anti-Fraud Committee;
• A significant increase in the number of Continuing Disability Reviews (CDR) we complete;
• A significant expansion in the number of Cooperative Disability Investigations (CDI) Units, as well as increasing our staff in many existing Units;
• Anti-fraud training for all SSA and DDS employees;
• The establishment of robust data analytics capacity to enhance fraud detection;
• The establishment of three Fraud Prevention Units made up of expert disability examiners who review and act on potential fraud cases; and
• An increase in the number of our attorneys who serve as Special Assistant United States Attorneys dedicated to prosecuting Social Security fraud.

Our first line of defense is each of you!  I cannot over-emphasize the importance of reporting suspicious or questionable facts that come to your attention in the course of your daily work.  As individuals become more adept at discovering ways to try to defraud SSA, we must be even more vigilant and attentive to details that may suggest fraud, including those that we may not ordinarily consider. 

The following is information about identifying and reporting suspected fraud that you may find helpful.

• POMS GN 004100ff [this section of POMS must not be available to the public since the link doesn't work] provides additional information on fraud awareness and reporting. 

• The electronic 8551 (e8551) is used by SSA and the DDSs to report allegations directly to OIG.  A link to the e8551 can be found at:  Reporting Fraud e8551 [again, the form must not be available to the public]. 
• For the public, we have set up a special Puerto Rico CDI Hotline to report Program fraud in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico.
• For all other public reporting, the OIG fraud Hotline: 1-800-269-0271 is available (10 AM to 4 PM EST).
• For additional public reporting options, please refer to http://oig.ssa.gov/. 

I want to reassure you that SSA is fully committed to working with our Federal and State partners to ensure that we vigorously pursue prosecution of individuals or groups who attempt to defraud our programs.  I want to thank each of you for the work you perform to support our mission and remind you that, if you see something suspicious or questionable, please do not keep it to yourself.  Report it!

Pete Spencer

Co-Chair

National Anti-Fraud Committee

The 80-Year War Against Social Security

     Dylan Scott at TPM gives a history of The 80-Year Conservative War On Social Security.