No Surprise Here

     From a letter from Social Security's Chief Actuary to the Chairmen of the House Social Security and Human Resource Subcommittees:

I am writing in response to your request for an estimate of the financial effects on Social Security of H.R. 2135, “ Promoting Opportunity for Disability Benefit Applicants Act , ” introduced on April 30. This Bill would allow the Commissioner of Social Security to provide information on appropriate public or private entities that provide employment services, vocational rehabilitation services, or other support services to applicants for disability benefits under Title II or Title XVI who are denied benefits based on an adverse determination of disability.  ...

We conclude that enactment of this Bill would most likely have a very small net effect on Title II, Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI), benefit cost and Title XVI, Supplemental Security Income (SSI), cost ...

News From NOSSCR

     I received a question from a reader who wanted to know why I hadn't posted news from last week's conference of the National Organization of Social Security Claimants Representatives (NOSSCR), held in Arlington, VA, just outside D.C. The answer is simple. There really wasn't much news. Here's the little I gleaned.

     Glenn Sklar, the head of Social Security's Office of Disability Adjudication and Review (ODAR), said that things were going to get better because the agency was hiring more Administrative Law Judges (ALJs). However, Sklar couldn't give a clear answer when asked if there would be any net improvement after the expected attrition of ALJs retiring, quitting and dying.

     Senator Sherrod Brown gave a nice speech, promising to fully support Social Security, including disability benefits but Brown's support was never in question. The problem is on the other side of the aisle.

     Ellen Nissenbaum of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) gave a depressing talk about the challenges affecting the Social Security Disability Insurance Trust Fund. Nothing she said would be news to any regular reader of this blog. I thought she was overly pessimistic, talking almost exclusively about the negative while failing to mention the positive -- that Democrats, to this point, are solidly against significant changes in Social Security disability benefits and Republicans haven't produced a bill. Nissenbaum seemed to think that Republicans might get away with saying they would cut "disability" but not Social Security. I wouldn't bet on that working if I were a Republican running in anything other than an extremely safe district. I can see the TV ad now accusing a Republican of cutting, let's say, $100 billion from Social Security. Would it really work for the Republican to go around complaining that the ad is misleading because the $100 billion would be "disability" instead of Social Security?

     Barbara Silverstone, NOSSCR's Executive Director, noted that the attendance at the conference was under 700. In recent years, conference attendance, particularly in D.C., has been around 1,000. The reason the attendance was off wasn't the date or the location or the hotel or anything else like that. It's the fact that it has become extremely challenging to practice Social Security law these days. A fair number of Social Security attorneys are dropping out of the practice. Fewer who are still practicing Social Security law can afford to attend a conference. The next conference is scheduled for the end of October in Denver. That may be the sort of intimate gathering that NOSSCR hasn't seen in decades.

Stop The Gaming

     From Alicia Munnell, writing for Market Watch:

In 2009, we published three briefs under the title “Strange but True” that described Social Security claiming strategies that allowed individuals to get more benefits. The idea was to show how they worked, who was most likely to benefit, and how much they could cost. Our hope was that publicity would compel Congress to close down these options.

We had mixed success. The immediate result is that these strategies continued to gain in popularity with financial planners, and individuals increasingly approached their Social Security offices asking for arrangements that some staff had never heard of. Today people are writing best-selling books about how to get the maximum out of Social Security. ...

Under Social Security, married individuals are entitled to a retired worker benefit based on their own earnings and/or to a spousal benefit equal to one half of their spouse’s benefit claimed at the Full Retirement Age (currently 66). If a married individual claims before the Full Retirement Age, the SSA assumes that the individual is claiming both types of benefits, compares the worker and spousal benefits, and awards the highest. This procedure is called “deeming.”

After the Full Retirement Age deeming does not apply, and individuals can choose which benefit to receive. As a result, married individuals can claim a spousal benefit at 66 and switch to their own retired worker benefit at a later date. This approach allows a worker to begin claiming one type of benefit while still building up delayed retirement credits, which will result in a higher worker benefit later. ...

The final strategy – “claim and suspend” – allows people who have already claimed Social Security to re-enter the labor force and continue to build their retirement benefits. However, it also offers couples a claiming advantage. For example, a husband who reaches the Full Retirement Age can claim and immediately suspend his benefits, allowing his wife to receive a spousal benefit based on his earnings record. The husband is then free to continue working and receive delayed retirement credits, which increases not only his monthly benefit but also his wife’s.

     Munnell argues that Congress should pass legislation requiring deeming even after full retirement age.

Wasted Effort

       Some Harvard researchers are arguing that Social Security's Office of Chief Actuary is being too optimistic in predicting the future of Social Security's Retirement and Survivor's Trust Fund. Right wing operatives are spreading the news. I'm not going to bother trying to understand the arguments on both sides because they're completely irrelevant. Let me clue you in to a secret. The future of Social Security has almost nothing to do with the actuarial future of the Retirement and Survivor's Trust Fund. What supports Social Security retirement benefits isn't really the Trust Fund but the political will of the American people who overwhelmingly support the continued existence of Social Security retirement benefits. If that political will were lacking, there would be no legal impediment to abolishing Social Security next week regardless of the balance in the Trust Fund. With that political will present, it wouldn't matter if the Retirement and Survivor's Trust Fund were running out of money next week. There would be hell to pay for any politician who refused to keep Social Security going. Republicans argue on the one hand that the Trust Fund is a meaningless abstraction but then try to invest the Trust Fund with an almost talismanic quality, thinking that any remote threat to the Trust Fund will bring down Social Security. Republicans can keep whining about the Trust Fund for the next 80 years the same way they have for the last 80 years and it won't threaten Social Security in the slightest. 

Most Popular Baby Names

     From Social Security, the most popular names for babies in 2014:

Boys

1. Noah
2. Liam
3. Mason
4. Jacob
5. William
6. Ethan
7. Michael
8. Alexander
9. James
10. Daniel 

Girls

1. Emma
2. Olivia
3. Sophia
4. Isabella
5. Ava
6. Mia
7. Emily
8. Abigail
9. Madison
10. Charlotte

New Anti-Fraud Effort

     From the Social Security Update:

Social Security’s Office of Anti-Fraud Programs (OAFP) is the latest member of Social Security’s team supporting our continued mission to fight and prevent fraud. Established in November 2014, OAFP’s mission is to efficiently and effectively detect, deter, and mitigate fraud, waste, and abuse of our program of Social Security’s team supporting our continued mission to fight and prevent fraud. Established in November 2014, OAFP’s mission is to efficiently and effectively detect, deter, and mitigate fraud, waste, and abuse of our programs.

     I hope they find whatever fraud there is but what's going on here is clear. Congressional Republicans are pressuring the Social Security Administration to use its scarce resources to find examples of fraud, not because the Republicans are genuinely interested in reducing fraud, but because they want to use any example of fraud, no matter how isolated, as grounds for cutting disability benefits. 
     It's not like no one was trying to combat fraud at Social Security. That's the primary responsibility of the Office of Inspector General. What's the point of some other office working the same beat? 

Planning To Pour Money Down A Rat Hole

     Social Security is publishing a request for comments on a plan for a research study on early intervention as a way of reducing disability caused by mental illness. The agency cites earlier research showing "promising" results from early intervention. Here's what the earlier research  actually says:

Eight  percent  of  the  study  participants  showed average  earnings  over  the  24-month study  period  that  exceeded  the  current  level  of  SGA [Substantial Gainful Activity, the level of earnings that would cause loss of benefits].  Beneficiaries  in  the  treatment group did not  experience  an increase  in work  that  SSA  considers  SGA  when  compared to participants  in the  control  group.  Neither  did participants  in the  treatment  group experience  a  reduction in  benefit  payments  when  compared to participants  in the control  group.

     If that's "promising", what would unpromising results look like? I really wish that something like this would work but it won't. The people who receive Social Security disability benefits due to mental illness are so badly impaired that very few of them will ever return to regular employment no matter what anyone does.

What's The Point?

     House Social Security Subcommittee Democrats are pushing a plan to combine the Disability Insurance Trust Fund with the Retirement and Survivors Trust Fund as a way of dealing with the looming shortfall in the Disability Trust Fund. Why? How is this better in any way than the Administration's plan to divert some FICA revenues to the Disability Trust Fund? It would have been nice if Democrats had tried this when they had control of the House but now? What's the point? It's going nowhere.