It's An Idea

    From The Case For Using Subsidies For Retirement Plans To Fix Social Security by Andrew Biggs and Alicia Munnell:

The U.S. Treasury estimates that the tax preference for employer-sponsored retirement plans and IRAs reduced federal income taxes by about $185-$189 billion in 2020, equal to about 0.9 percent of gross domestic product.1 However, the best evidence suggests that the federal tax preferences do little to increase retirement saving.  ...

The [report] concludes that it makes little sense to throw more and more taxpayer money at employer plans and IRAs. In fact, the case is strong for eliminating the current tax expenditures on retirement plans, and using the increase in tax revenues to address Social Security’s long-term financing shortfall. ...

    This doesn't appeal to me. It's very unlikely to pass. There aren't specific tax revenues involved, just a reduction in tax preferences. I'd be more in favor of dedicating revenues from the estate tax, excise taxes and tariffs to Social Security but I doubt that would be enough to matter much. It's becoming more and more obvious to me that the only solution to the long term funding shortfall is an infusion of general tax revenues. The things that people discuss, raising full retirement age and lifting the cap on wages covered by the FICA tax, even together, aren't nearly enough to solve the long term funding problem.

This Is What's Going On At Ground Level

    Here's a note made recently by an employee at my firm about a pending disability claim that may give you some idea of the state of service at Social Security :

TC [telephone call to] ____ DO [District Office] and she said there is an initial claim that has been sitting there since 7/14/2023. She is sending it to the CR [claims representative] Mr. ____ but he is off.

    In case you don't understand the context, the DO only takes the claims. They don't make medical determinations. Those are made at Disability Determination Services (DDS). Under normal circumstances -- which don't currently exist -- new claims are forwarded from the DO to DDS in a week or two. Even if there is some technical problem, the claim isn't supposed to be sitting at a DO for six months! 

    For this to happen there has to be no effective tickler system at the DO. I'm sure there's supposed to be one but it's broken down entirely under the enormous pressure of overwhelming workloads.

    I'm not even mad at the personnel involved because I have an idea of just how overwhelmed they are.  If a case happens to fall by the wayside now, we're just about at what I've described before as the "Not now. Not later. Not ever" stage of service. Problems aren't being straightened out.

    And please don't blame my firm. We've been trying for three months to find out what happened to the case. It's almost impossible to get anyone on the phone. There's no smart trick that solves cases like this. There's far too many of them. We're not supposed to be Social Security's tickler system anyway.

Electronic Payroll Data Proposed Regs Advance

     Social Security's proposed rules on Use of Electronic Payroll Data To Improve Program Administration have been approved by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA). They can now be published in the Federal Register for public comments.

Disability Claims Filed And Awarded Increased Modestly In 2023

    Social Security has posted final numbers on disability claims and awards for calendar year 2023. With the pandemic tamped down to a level which permits most people to live normally, the number of disability claims filed and awarded increased modestly.

 

Number of applications
Field office                                                                           receipts	Initial DDS receipts

 

2009 .....	2,816,244	1,798,975
2010 .....	2,935,798	1,926,398
2011 .....	2,878,920	1,859,591
2012 .....	2,824,024	1,808,863
2013 .....	2,653,939	1,702,700
2014 .....	2,536,174	1,633,652
2015 .....	2,427,443	1,552,119
2016 .....	2,321,583	1,473,700
2017 .....	2,179,928	1,377,803
2018 .....	2,073,293	1,300,668
2019 .....	2,015,182	1,309,863
2020 .....	1,838,893	1,226,236
2021 .....	1,820,282	1,210,545
2022 .....	1,804,384	1,205,686
2023 .....	1,904,635	1,248,378

  

Number of Awards

2009 .....985,940
2010 .....1,052,551
2011 .....1,025,003
2012 .....979,973
2013 .....884,894
2014 .....810,973
2015 .....775,739
2016 .....744,268
2017 .....762,141
2018 .....733,879
2019 ....723,858
2020 .....648,121
2021 .....571,952
2022 .....543,445
2023 .....561,585

 

Some Thoughts On The New Commissioner

     I hope that the new Commissioner, Martin O'Malley, doesn't suffer from the illusion that his management skills will rescue the Social Security Administration. I'm not knocking his management skills which may be excellent. It's just that for literally decades Social Security's leadership labored under the belief that good management could overcome appropriations that declined in real dollars. They tried ever more desperately as service declined. The peak of this management hubris was former Commissioner Barnhart's ill-fated "plan" to overhaul the agency's hearing functions and make everything vastly better without additional funding. It sold well to Congressional committees who were happy to hear Barnhart promise to pull a rabbit out of a hat but her "plan" wasn't much of a plan to begin with -- more of a plan to develop a plan. Such as the "plan" was, it made no sense. All she was able to accomplish was to delay the complete collapse of her "plan" until after she left office. Let's not repeat that disaster.

    Please, Commissioner O'Malley, don't fall into the trap of believing that your management abilities will make a world of difference. They won't. 

    However, there is something O'Malley can do that would help, and that's lobbying. I have read the book written by the first head of what is today the Social Security Administration, Arthur Altmeyer, on The Formative Years Of Social Security. I don't recommend the book. I was expecting accounts of how a huge agency was built from the ground up, creating systems that to some extent must still exist. How did they make sure everyone got a Social Security number? How did they handle data processing at a time when the finest data processing equipment available (and there was some) was at the caveman level? How did they hire all the people needed? How did they record all the wages? How did they compute benefits? There is almost none of that in the book. Instead, the book is mostly a dry account of how Altmeyer lobbied Congress for legislation needed to complete the Social Security Act with additional benefits. Altmeyer was quite successful at this, although not successful enough to get disability benefits, which were added after he left office. Altmeyer must have mostly delegated actual management of the new agency to others while he did what was most needed and what he was best at. 

    There is no law requiring that a Social Security Commisisoner spend his or her time tied down with day to day operations. Let others who know the agency better do that. O'Malley should spend most of his time lobbying within the Administration and with Congress for better operational funding. That's where he's needed and where his skills can make a difference.

Operating Stats From Office Of Hearings Operations

 

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DeSantis Alleges "Massive" Social Security Disability Fraud

     From Florida Politics:

[Florida Governor] Ron DeSantis is sympathetic to people determined to be disabled by the Social Security Administration, but he’s not accepting all claims at face value.

“Either you’re disabled or you’re not,” DeSantis said Sunday in Iowa [where he was campaigning for President]. ...

“There are some people that will kind of fake being disabled then work and then they should, you know, whatever. But I do think that if somebody has a disability and it prevents them from reaching their full potential and they’re eligible fine. But if, then they can do some type of employment that could supplement, you know, I don’t think that that would be a bad thing and I think that’s a good incentive.’ ...

“Now there’s a lot of fraud in the program and I think that’s been a huge issue,” DeSantis said, calling the problem “just massive.”  ...

 

Social Security’s Immigration Problem

      You often hear about the terrible problems that immigrants cause for Social Security. They just GIVE them Social Security as soon as they cross the border! It’s killing Social Security! 

     The Motley Fool has an article up about the immigration problem that’s hurting Social Security — not enough immigrants.