[I]n discussions of Social Security it’s often argued that in the program’s early years, nobody could have imagined the increases in life expectancy that have actually occurred, so nobody could have imagined that we’d have as many beneficiaries relative to the number of people of working age. ...Well, it turns out that Table 9 in the 1945 report (pdf) [of the Board of Trustees of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund] shows high and low estimates of the population distribution looking forward as far as 2000, which we can compare with the actual population distribution in 2000.
What you can see right away is that the SSA [Social Security Administration] expected a much smaller population than we actually ended up with — the baby boom and immigration weren’t anticipated. But they also expected a somewhat older population than we actually got: their “low” estimate put the ratio of seniors to adults under 65 at 20.8%, almost the same as the actual 21.1%, while the “high” estimate put the ratio at 29.1%. That is, in 1945 the Trustees thought that America would probably be a grayer, older country by 2000 than it actually ended up being.
Jan 16, 2011
Nobody Could Have Predicted It
From Paul Krugman's blog at the New York Times:
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3 comments:
SSA had as its Chief Actuary one of the greatest actuaries in the history of American government, Robert Myers. His projections were extremely trustworthy. In contrast, no one in the banking industry could foresee that anyone would take advantage of a regulation-free environment to sell worthless MBS's and other purely speculative CDS's. So, who you gonna believe? The Simpson-Bowles report or Bob Myers? Remember Bowles is a banker and Simpson was a Senator who received massive campaign contributions from the financial industry. Hmmm. I'll take Myers.
"That is, in 1945 the Trustees thought that America would probably be a grayer, older country by 2000 than it actually ended up being."
But isn't that the same as saying that they did not anticipate the Baby Boomers? And they certainly can't be faulted on that account. Appears to me that they were smack on correct.
Bob Myers was one prickly dude to work with, but yes, he was smart. And he knew it.
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