Notice that unless more Administrative Law Judges (ALJs) are hired we will be below 1,000 ALJs in a few months. At one point, there were almost 2,000 ALJs at Social Security.
I confess, I'm not very familiar with the selection process for ALJs or how it works, but is this something that could be subject to a hiring freeze? I can see a lot of people arguing that money needs to be saved in employment at Social Security. (I know it's actually the opposite, but that's not translating to the general public in my experience)
In 2012, the number of pending cases at the hearing level was over 800,000, now its under 270,000. The decline in the number of Judges is not a present concern to me. I am more concerned with issues and delays that are taking place in the field offices and payment centers. For what the Agency would spend on 1 ALJ, they could cover the costs of several employees in these other components.
I know people are suggesting there is a wave of cases that will be coming to the hearing level and OHO needs to hire to prepare for it, but I don't buy it.
@1:01 you don't need to buy it, just go look at the report and face reality. SSA publishes how many DDS cases are pending each month. Typical levels of pending DDS cases is about 700k a month (initial & recon combined, see 2019 and before.) DDS cases pending now are about 1.5 million cases, all time record high! Went up by about 250,000 cases a year for over 3 years, in 2024 finally went up less than that amount, the later half of last year SSA chipped away at the pending backlog to some extent.
Facts are: there are 800,000 cases at DDS pending now more than normal. Facts also show at OHO we have about half the hearing decisions coming out of OHO that we had in very recent years. Look at these caseload analysis reports from 2019-2020 vs FY2024.
OHO inputs are depressed as a result of DDS dysfunction. This should be #1 problem at SSA (and NOSSCR) since it is the biggest problem for claimants.
If DDS did not have record levels of pending backlog, the real number of hearings / decisions at OHO would easily be 100,000 a year more than last few years, and likely over 150k more.
OHO is not staffed for those future hearings. But they are not coming yet, SSA still crippled at DDS, not moving through pending materially yet. When the DDS pending cases start coming out of DDS at rates higher than their inputs, the OHO receipts will surge, and the OHO pending will begin to grow again.
OHO will eventually need to higher significant more ALJs than any recent hiring class we've seen.
@3:00 Even 150,000 additional cases at OHO makes the pending only half of what it was in 2012. At that point there were about 1500 ALJs. If we look at average hearing processing times in 2012-2013 as examples, it was between 9-16 months.
We have 1/3 less ALJs to process 1/2 the volume of cases (including your wave #s). Seems like that should be doable without a significant increase in wait times. I think short term money needs to focus on other aspects: field office, payments center, and DDS. It does a claimant no good if there are a bunch of Judges waiting to hear their case but the field office can't process the claim, or once approved the payment center can't pay their benefits.
I have client's who are waiting a year or more to get their benefits after a favorable decision because the payment center doesn't have enough people/budget to get around to processing the claim.
4 comments:
I confess, I'm not very familiar with the selection process for ALJs or how it works, but is this something that could be subject to a hiring freeze? I can see a lot of people arguing that money needs to be saved in employment at Social Security. (I know it's actually the opposite, but that's not translating to the general public in my experience)
In 2012, the number of pending cases at the hearing level was over 800,000, now its under 270,000. The decline in the number of Judges is not a present concern to me. I am more concerned with issues and delays that are taking place in the field offices and payment centers. For what the Agency would spend on 1 ALJ, they could cover the costs of several employees in these other components.
I know people are suggesting there is a wave of cases that will be coming to the hearing level and OHO needs to hire to prepare for it, but I don't buy it.
@1:01 you don't need to buy it, just go look at the report and face reality. SSA publishes how many DDS cases are pending each month. Typical levels of pending DDS cases is about 700k a month (initial & recon combined, see 2019 and before.) DDS cases pending now are about 1.5 million cases, all time record high! Went up by about 250,000 cases a year for over 3 years, in 2024 finally went up less than that amount, the later half of last year SSA chipped away at the pending backlog to some extent.
Facts are: there are 800,000 cases at DDS pending now more than normal. Facts also show at OHO we have about half the hearing decisions coming out of OHO that we had in very recent years. Look at these caseload analysis reports from 2019-2020 vs FY2024.
OHO inputs are depressed as a result of DDS dysfunction. This should be #1 problem at SSA (and NOSSCR) since it is the biggest problem for claimants.
If DDS did not have record levels of pending backlog, the real number of hearings / decisions at OHO would easily be 100,000 a year more than last few years, and likely over 150k more.
OHO is not staffed for those future hearings. But they are not coming yet, SSA still crippled at DDS, not moving through pending materially yet. When the DDS pending cases start coming out of DDS at rates higher than their inputs, the OHO receipts will surge, and the OHO pending will begin to grow again.
OHO will eventually need to higher significant more ALJs than any recent hiring class we've seen.
@3:00 Even 150,000 additional cases at OHO makes the pending only half of what it was in 2012. At that point there were about 1500 ALJs. If we look at average hearing processing times in 2012-2013 as examples, it was between 9-16 months.
We have 1/3 less ALJs to process 1/2 the volume of cases (including your wave #s). Seems like that should be doable without a significant increase in wait times. I think short term money needs to focus on other aspects: field office, payments center, and DDS. It does a claimant no good if there are a bunch of Judges waiting to hear their case but the field office can't process the claim, or once approved the payment center can't pay their benefits.
I have client's who are waiting a year or more to get their benefits after a favorable decision because the payment center doesn't have enough people/budget to get around to processing the claim.
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