Mr. True On Cavuto

     Michael Astrue appeared on Neil Cavuto's show on Fox Business News yesterday. Here are some things I gleaned from this appearance:

• If you thought that the Fox News attitude wouldn't carry over to Fox Business News, you'd be wrong. Cavuto had all the Fox News talking points on Social Security down pat. He could not refer to any Democratic idea without sneering.
• Cavuto seemed incapable of pronouncing Astrue's surname. A couple of times he seemed to refer to Astrue as Mr. True. Eventually, he just referred to him as Michael.
• Astrue wanted to talk about the serious problems affecting the Social Security disability trust fund.
• Astrue was promoting a Simpson-Bowles Commission to deal with Social Security. He wanted a requirement that there must be a vote on the floor of each House of Congress on this Commission's recommendations.
• Astrue thought it was a "trendy but facile" idea to remove the cap on earnings covered by the FICA tax because this would put a "crippling burden on the younger generation" and it would make it very difficult to operate a small business.
• Astrue believes that raising the retirement age "has to be on the table."
• Astrue made a dig at President Obama by noting that George W. Bush had nominated him four months before his predecessor's term had ended while, in Astrue's words, Obama was only in the "early stages" of selecting a new Commissioner.
• Astrue criticized an unnamed candidate or candidates for the job of Social Security Commissioner whom he characterized as being from the "very far left" because they denied that Social Security had any serious funding problem and because they believed that only minor tweaks would be required. He thought that the Social Security Commissioner should stay out of the debate and be an operational manager.

     I don't understand why Astrue would want to promote a Simpson-Bowles Commission to deal with Social Security. Simpson-Bowles was a disaster. That Commission never agreed to any recommendation. Their work didn't move Congress or the American people any closer to a resolution of our budget problems. There's no reason to believe such a commission to deal with Social Security would be any less of a failure. The reason is simple. People like Astrue insist that raising the retirement age has to be on the table but also insist that tax increases have to be off the table. How does that position get one to an agreement? How would lifting the FICA cap put a crippling burden on younger people? The vast majority of younger people would be unaffected by such a change. How would raising the FICA cap make it difficult to operate a small business? Few small businesses have any employees who have earnings above the FICA cap. If Astrue really wants to move the U.S in the direction of some grand bargain on Social Security, he has to say that increasing taxes must be on the table along with benefit cuts but if he says this he won't be appearing on Fox Business News again and he'll be ostracized by his fellow Republicans so he can't say that.

     I agree with Astrue that the next Social Security Commissioner should stay out of the Social Security funding debate and should be an operational manager. Nancy Altman is undoubtedly a fine person with great qualifications but those qualifications don't match up with the job description for the position of Social Security Commissioner. However, I don't think it's accurate or helpful to characterize Altman as being from the "very far left." To my mind, Altman is a political realist. Her position is that any attempt at this time to deal with Social Security's financing difficulties is doomed. Anything that Republicans would agree to would rely almost exclusively on benefit cuts. There's no point in agreeing to this sort of deal or even agreeing to talk about it. Medium and long term demographics strongly favor the Democrats. Wait a bit and this problem can be resolved on Democratic terms. Is that a "very far left" position or just political realism?

Errors In Colvin Biography

     I'm going through what I can find about Carolyn Colvin's background so I can do a post about the new Acting Commissioner. I'll try to get something up soon but I've encountered problems with her biography on Social Security's website. It contains at least two inaccuracies. This has to be unintentional since there's nothing she would want to keep secret. The error may have happened at Social Security's press office. She's omitted her time as Director of Human Services for the District of Columbia from 2001-2003 and the bio on Social Security's website is way off on the dates of her service as Director of the Montgomery County Department of Health and Human Service. The biography shows that job as being from 2001-2003 but she was working for the District of Columbia then. I know she was fired from the Montgomery County job in 2006 after a new County Executive was elected.
     Maybe the new Acting Commissioner would be sympathetic to the argument that it's a bit much for Social Security to consider work going back 15 years to be past relevant work for purposes of disability determination.

Should She Be "Hopping Mad"?

     From the Salt Lake Tribune:

Nearly 19,000 elderly Utahns, and millions more across the country, are being pushed into the digital banking world by the federal government.

Starting March 1, the U.S. Department of the Treasury plans to stop mailing out most paper Social Security checks. Instead, it will require recipients to switch to an electronic form of payment: either direct deposit into their bank account or onto a Treasury-issued debit card. ...

The switch away from mailbox delivery has others just plain upset.

Michigan resident Mike Clement told the McClatchy Newspapers service that he and his elderly mother were "hopping mad" that she was being forced to switch to electronic payment.

"It really should be a matter of personal choice," Clement said. "Unfortunately, the feds seem not to care a whit about personal preference."

     There have been articles like this in papers all over the country. To the best of my knowledge, nothing is changing on March 1. This appears to be nothing more than the latest and most strident effort to convince recipients of Social Security checks to switch to direct deposit. Those who receive checks now will continue to receive them after March 1. Those who start receiving Social Security benefits in the future will face the now familiar pressure to receive the benefits in an electronic form but if they resist hard enough they can still receive a check.

The Absurdity Of One Aspect Of One Social Security Ruling

     I have been looking at some old Social Security Rulings in the last few days. There is much that I agree with, or at least don't disagree with, in these Rulings but then I come across this from Social Security Ruling 96-8p "It is incorrect to find that an individual has limitations or restrictions beyond those caused by his or her medical impairment(s) including any related symptoms, such as pain, due to factors such as age or height ..."

     Does that sound reasonable to you? Let me ask the question another way. Does it sound reasonable to you for Social Security to find that a woman who is 5'2" tall and who weighs 110 pounds can do lifting of up to 100 pounds? That is what the Ruling says. This is preposterous on its face yet it is Social Security's official position, applied every day at the initial and reconsideration levels. No one talks about it or even realizes it but this one absurd aspect of this one Ruling accounts for a not inconsiderable percentage of all reversals by Administrative Law Judge (ALJ).
     Anyone in the higher reaches of Social Security want to go all out to force ALJ compliance with this one?

Democrats In House Oppose Chained CPI

     From a press release issued yesterday:

107 House Democrats, a majority of Democrats in the House of Representatives, wrote President Obama today, urging him to reject any proposals to cut benefits millions of American families depend upon through Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. The letter was led by Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL),Congressional Progressive Caucus Co-Chairs Reps. Keith Ellison (D-MN) and Raúl M. Grijalva (D-AZ), Rep. John Conyers (D-MI), and Rep Donna Edwards (D-MD).

The Members specifically singled out “Chained CPI”—a proposal to reduce Social Security benefits by changing the way inflation is calculated—and raising the Medicare retirement age as policies they oppose. ...

Annual Statistical Supplement Issued

     Social Security has released its Annual Statistical Supplement for 2012, a compilation of every statistic you could want about Social Security other than statistics on agency operation. A few of those are published but not many. I've never understood why.

House Social Security Subcommittee Members Announced

      The lineup of members of the Social Security Subcommittee of the House Ways and Means Committee has FINALLY been announced:

Subcommittee on Social Security 

Rep. Sam Johnson, R-TX, Chairman

Republicans
Rep. Pat Tiberi, OH Rep.
Tim Griffin, AR Rep.
Jim Renacci, OH Rep.
Aaron Schock, IL Rep.
Mike Kelly, PA Rep.
Kevin Brady, TX

Democrats
Rep. Xavier Becerra, CA, Ranking Member
Rep. Lloyd Doggett, TX Rep. Mike Thompson, CA
Rep. Allyson Schwartz, PA

Not Acting Like A Caretaker

Social Security

Memorandum

Date:         February 14, 2013                                                                                                                   Refer To:  S7K

To:          Senior Staff

From:        Carolyn W. Colvin  /s/

              Acting Commissioner

Subject:    Executive Personnel Assignments - INFORMATION

As one of my first communications as Acting Commissioner, I want to share with you the makeup of my immediate executive team as well as several other Senior Executive Service (SES)  leadership changes.

Jim Kissko, formerly the Deputy Inspector General, is Chief of Staff. 

Kate Thornton, formerly one of my Senior Advisors, is Deputy Chief of Staff.

Karie Kilgore, SES Candidate Development Program (CDP) Class V graduate, is the Executive Secretary. 

Stacy Rodgers, Greg Pace, and Dot Smallwood will continue as my Senior Advisors.

In the Office of Budget, Finance and Management, Mike Gallagher will leave for the Appeals Council March 4.  Pete Spencer, former Regional Commissioner in San Francisco prior to his retirement, has agreed to return and serve as the Deputy Commissioner for Budget, Finance and Management through the end of the year.

In the Office of Operations, Chicago Regional Commissioner (RC) Nancy Berryhill will serve as the Acting Deputy Commissioner for Operations.  Terrie Gruber will resume her position as Assistant Deputy Commissioner (ADC) for Operations.  Marianna LaCanfora will remain as a second ADC for Operations during this transition.  Marcia Mosley will serve as Acting RC, Chicago, while Nancy is on assignment in headquarters.

In the Office of Systems, Marti Eckert, currently Deputy Associate Commissioner (DAC) for Telecommunications and Systems Operations (OTSO), will serve as Acting Associate Commissioner for Information Systems when Brad Flick reports to his new post in Chicago.

Dave Thomas, currently the Assistant Associate Commissioner (AAC), OTSO (Enterprise IT Services Management), will serve as Acting DAC, OTSO.  Sylvia Heist, SES CDP Class V, will serve as Acting AAC, OTSO (Enterprise IT Services Management). 

Commissioner Astrue’s executive team will report to new assignments next week.  Jo Tittel and Tiffany Flick will move to the Office of Appellate Operations.  Dean Landis has accepted an external assignment with the National Institutes of Health.  Steve Nash will move to the Office of the Deputy Commissioner for Disability Adjudication and Review.   I would like to thank all of Commissioner Astrue’s team for their fine work and dedication to the agency’s mission.  I am confident they will continue that support in their new roles.

Please join me in congratulating everyone on their new roles and giving them your full support.

Some Things To Parse In First Message From Acting Commissioner

     An e-mail that went out yesterday:

From: ^Commissioner Broadcast
Sent: Thursday, February 14, 2013 9:22 AM
Subject: COMMISSIONER'S BROADCAST--02/14/13

A Message To All SSA And DDS Employees

Subject: Together, We Will Move Forward

“Today, a hope of many years’ standing is in large part fulfilled…. We have tried to frame a law which will give some measure of protection to the average citizen and to his family against the loss of a job and against poverty-ridden old age.”

The words that Franklin Roosevelt spoke upon signing the Social Security Act into law in 1935 have added meaning for me today. It is with great pride and humility that I assume the role as the Acting Commissioner of Social Security.

I consider it an honor of a lifetime to work with each of you in fulfilling FDR’s great vision for providing a measure of economic security to more than 60 million Americans—the elderly, persons with disabilities, survivors and dependents.

Please join me in thanking Commissioner Astrue for his years of service and leadership. We wish him and his family a safe journey and much success as they return to Massachusetts.

In the coming days and months, Social Security is sure to remain a vital part of the domestic agenda as the nation continues to grapple with its fiscal challenges. It will be more important than ever that we build upon the great legacy left to us.

Whether you are helping people every day by providing direct service to the public or supporting those who do, you are the key to our success. I sincerely appreciate what you do every day on behalf of the citizens of this country.

I know I can count on your continued support and commitment. I will be meeting with many of you in the coming days to share my leadership vision, and solicit your ideas and suggestions. We must work with renewed vigor to fulfill the program’s great promise. Together, we will move forward.

Carolyn W. Colvin

Acting Commissioner

      There's no mention of the President nominating a Commissioner. Colvin is talking of her "leadership vision." Does a person who is only acting as a caretaker for a few weeks need to communicate a "leadership vision"?

Astrue Speaks Out

     From an interview that outgoing Social Security Commissioner Michael Astrue gave to the Associated Press:

I think that Social Security is a gem. I think it is the most successful domestic program in the history of the United States government and it is fraying because of inattention to its problems. And I think it’s a shame that Washington cannot get its act together to look at Social Security in detail in isolation and say, What do we need to do? ...

Q: There are some in Congress who say only benefit cuts should be considered — no tax increases. Others say benefit cuts should be off the table. Where do you come down?

A: Nothing is going to happen if you establish preconditions for the conversation. I do think that for the people who simply want to tax more, you need to be very mindful of the fact that that tax will fall disproportionately on the younger generation and that if you’re not careful, that could be a huge economic drag. ...

Q: One of the few issues that the president and Republicans in Congress agree on is changing the way the government measures inflation. As you know, this would reduce the annual cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, for Social Security recipients. Advocates for seniors hate the idea. They want bigger COLAs, not smaller ones. What do you think?

A: As a general matter I do think that the president and the Congress are right that before you start talking about increases in the retirement age and things like that it’s appropriate to try to have a conversation about what we might be able to do in terms of COLA adjustments.

Q: The age when retirees can receive full benefits is gradually increasing from 66 to 67. There are proposals to increase it gradually even more, perhaps as high as 70. What do you think of those proposals?

A: I think there’s some historical inevitability that we will move in that direction. How far, I don’t think is historically inevitable. Part of this we need to remember is not that the system is flawed or that there are evil people around here. I mean, we should celebrate a little bit of good news. Most of the pressure on the system comes from the fact that we’ve had great medical advances and people are living a lot longer than before.

Q: Social Security payroll taxes only apply to the first $ 113,700 of a worker’s wages. There have been proposals to increase this threshold or even eliminate it, applying the tax to all wages. What do you think of those ideas?

A: I think there’s some historic inevitability on at least some lifting of the (payroll tax) cap. I think that most politicians and I think most economists I’ve talked to generally think that that would have less of a negative impact on the economy than raising the rate itself.

Q: Applications for disability benefits increased dramatically when the economy went bad. Why did that happen?

A: I think a lot of people applied out of economic desperation. Very few of those people actually ended up getting benefits. If you look at the numbers, it’s one of the reasons why our approval rates have dropped dramatically in the last few years. ...

Q: The Association of Administrative Law Judges says that in order to reduce backlogs some judges are deciding more than 500 cases a year. Is that too many cases to do a thorough job on each one?

A: No, not at all. We set for the first time productivity standards in 2007. It was actually done by the chief judge, and it was done looking at best demonstrated practices of existing judges. At that point in time about 40 percent of the judges were doing 500 to 700 cases a year. And so that’s what we set as our goal, and that’s what it is, it’s a goal to shoot for. … Now, about 80 percent of the judges hit that goal.

      I wonder where Astrue goes from here. Think tank? Teaching? Writing poetry? All of these?

     By the way, I don't think there's any "historical inevitability" about raising full retirement age. In fact, I think that's quite unlikely. In retrospect, I'm amazed it happened the first time.