White House Draft Of CR Contains No Additional Money For SSA

      The federal fiscal year (FY) ends on September 30 each year. Each year Congress fails to complete regular appropriations bills by that deadline so it must pass continuing resolutions (CRs) that enable government agencies to  continue to spend at the rate of the prior appropriation. The CRs generally contain special provisions allowing additional spending under the CRs for urgent needs.

    The White House has released its draft CR for this year. It contains additional funding for disasters and for Afghan refugee resettlement but no additional funding for the Social Security Administration. Of course, Congress gets a say in this. There was an earlier supplemental appropriation bill. The original Senate draft of that bill included an extra $150 million for Social Security. That was removed in negotiations. Could that return in the CR? We'll see.

SSI Disappointment

      The Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, which has jurisdiction over SSI, has announced that on September 9 and 10 his Committee will mark up a bill to be part of the budget reconciliation bill that Democrats hope to pass this month.  The announcement includes a description of what will be in the draft bill. I see no mention of SSI. This may be amended in committee but I doubt it will happen.

     The Senate Finance Committee may have different priorities. If so, the differences will have to be worked out.

Hearing Office Average Processing Time Continues To Rise

     The report shown below was obtained from Social Security by the National Organization of Social Security Claimants Representatives (NOSSCR) and published in its newsletter, which is not available online to non-members. It contains basic operating statistics for Social Security's Office of Hearings Operations (OHO). 

     Note that the average processing time jumped from 301 days at the end of last year to 351 days as of July. I posted about this last month and received responses basically saying "What's the problem? The total number pending is down." Who outside Social Security cares what the total number pending is? What people outside the agency care about is how long it takes to get a hearing and a decision. Even though fewer appeals are being filed, it's taking longer and longer to get a hearing and a decision. That's important. There are a multitude of problems at Social Security. This is one of them. Like many of those problems, this one is going to get worse. There is a huge backlog of cases stuck at the initial and reconsideration levels. Those backlogs will eventually be worked down, leading to more appeals. Everyone expects an avalanche of disability claims once the field offices reopen.

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Happy Labor Day!

 

Is OASIS Still Around?

 

    Social Security used to publish an employee magazine called OASIS. Is OASIS still being published?

     Extra points if you know why it was/is named OASIS.

Note That It Was An IRS Form In 1950

 

How Are The Trust Funds Invested?

    

     Have you ever wondered about how the Social Security trust funds are invested? Probably you know they're invested in U.S. government bonds but you wonder about the mechanics. Here are all your answers in a report by the Congressional Research Service. 

     By the way, if you don't like the idea of the Trust Funds being invested in government bonds, how would you have them invested? Are you comfortable with the U.S. government owning trillions of dollars in corporate stocks and bonds? Isn't that more than a little socialistic? How would the government decide what to buy and sell? How would it vote on elections of corporate boards of directors? What happens when the markets go down in value?

"Long Covid" And Social Security

Wuhan, China

      Many wonder what effects the Covid-19 pandemic will have on Social Security's disability programs. Will there be many "long Covid" disability claims? The Lancet, one of the most important medical journals in the world, has published a study based upon Covid survivors in Wuhan, China, where Covid-19 was first detected. The survivors were followed up at six and twelve months and compared to similar individuals who had not had Covid.

     At twelve months 49% of the Covid survivors were reporting symptoms. Shortness of breath was reported in 30% at twelve months. Interestingly, 26% were reporting depression or anxiety. Covid survivors were reporting more problems with mobility as well as pain or discomfort that those who had not had Covid. Of those patients who had been working prior to Covid, 88% had returned to work twelve months out. The study concluded that the survivors had a good physical and functional recovery but their health status was still lower than that of similar individuals who had not suffered from Covid.

A Deeper Dive Into The Trustees Report

      From the Social Security Trustees Report:

... The changes in policy for the Deferred Actions for Childhood Arrivals program discussed in III.B, which affect the Social Security program in the first ten years primarily by increasing payroll tax income, increased the tenth year OASI trust fund ratio by 1 percentage point. Changes in demographic assumptions over the short-range period, primarily increased mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic, increased the projected tenth year trust fund ratio for OASI by 6 percentage points. .

     In case you're having trouble following the verbiage, this says that DACA is helping the Trust Funds modestly because DACA members will be paying taxes, as is, sadly, Covid-19 because of the excess deaths. Contrary to right wing fairy tales, immigration is always good for the Trust Funds. On the whole, immigrants pay taxes for many years before they draw Social Security benefits. What's hard to understand about that? The Trust funds are projected to be depleted a bit earlier despite the effects of DACA and Covid-19 because of "several changes in economic data and assumptions."

     More specifically as to mortality, the report says that:

... Preliminary data for 2020 show that while the effects of the pandemic led to significantly higher death rates for those aged 15 and older, the death rates for those under age 15 were significantly lower, though not quite to the same degree. Thus, for ages 15 and over, death rates are assumed to increase above what would have been projected in the absence of the pandemic by 16.4 percent for 2020, 15 percent for 2021, 4 percent for 2022, and 1 percent for 2023. ...

    As best I can tell the Trustees make no assumption about long Covid disability claims. I don't know how they could. It's all speculative at this point.

Trustees Report Finally Released

      From a press release:

The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the long-term financial status of the Social Security Trust Funds. The combined asset reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and DI) Trust Funds are projected to become depleted in 2034, one year earlier than projected last year, with 78 percent of benefits payable at that time. 

The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in 2033, one year sooner than last year’s estimate, with 76 percent of benefits payable at that time. The DI Trust Fund is estimated to become depleted in 2057, eight years earlier than last year’s estimate, with 91 percent of benefits still payable. ...

ERE Workaround

     Social Security has finally issued an alert about the ERE problem that has mostly been blocking access to its online systems for attorneys and others who represent claimant. The alert includes a workaround. Scroll halfway down the page to where it says "'Click this link to go to login page." That seems to work.

Briefs Filed In Puerto Rico SSI Case

      Probably before the end of this year the Supreme Court will hold an oral argument in the case of U.S. v. Vaello-Madero, which presents the issue of whether it is constitutional to deny SSI benefits to U.S. citizens who reside in Puerto Rico. If the Supreme Court holds that it is unconstitutional it is estimated that several hundred thousand Puerto Ricans will file SSI claims. The brief on the merits on behalf of the U.S. was filed on June 7. The brief on the merits on behalf of Mr. Vaello-Madero was filed on August 30.

Online System Failure

      There's a major problem with the system that attorneys use to access their clients' files at Social Security. It's mostly been down since sometime Friday. We're getting the screen you see reproduced here. I've heard reports from some that they can get in but most can't. 

     Social Security has our e-mail addresses. Occasionally, they send out a blast e-mail to us all. For this major system failure? Nada. It's not like they can keep this system failure a secret from us. We know it's not working. A little e-mail saying "We're working on it. We'll let you know once we've got it back up and running" would be appreciated.

     By the way, Social Security employees use a somewhat different version of the same system. Is that working?

Social Security Headcount Declines To Lowest Level Since At Least 2008

  The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) has posted updated numbers showing the headcount of employees at each agency. Here are Social Security's numbers as of June with earlier headcount numbers for comparison:

•  June 2021 59,707
  
• March 2021 60,675
• December 2020 61,816
  
• September 2020 61,447
  
• June 2020 60,515
  
• March 2020 60,659
  
• December 2019 61,969
  
• December 2018 62,946
  
• December 2017 62,777
• September 2017 62,297
• June 2017 61,592
• March 2017 62,183
• December 2016 63,364
• December 2015 65,518
• December 2014 65,430
• December 2013 61,957
• December 2012 64,538
• September 2011 67,136
• December 2010 70,270
• December 2009 67,486
• December 2008 63,733

Good Report From CBO While Social Security Actuary Points Finger At Treasury

      From Marketwatch:

… According to the just-released analysis, Social Security’s Old Age and Survivor Insurance (OASI) trust fund will remain solvent a year longer than previously thought. This is the trust fund from which Social Security benefits are paid. …

This new analysis was produced by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the non-partisan agency that analyzes the budget impact of various legislative proposals. To put its findings in context, it’s helpful to remember that every year the office of Social Security’s chief actuary updates its assessment of the OASI trust fund’s solvency. Its annual report typically is released in the spring.

No such report has been forthcoming this year, however. In an email, the chief actuary’s office told me that the decision about when to release its annual report is not theirs to make but instead is made by the U.S. Treasury Department. An email earlier this summer to that department asking for when this report will be forthcoming went unanswered. …

     Anyone want to speculate on why Treasury is holding this up?

What's Going On With The Delay In The Trustees Report?

      Senator Mike Crapo, the senior Republican on the Senate Finance Committee (which has jurisdiction over Social Security), is asking the Comptroller General of the United States and the head of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to look into the question of why the annual report of the Social Security trustees is so late.

    If nothing else, I think that the public as well as Crapo deserve an explanation on why the trustees report is so late. It was due by April 1, 2021. Nobody gets excited if it's a little late (which it usually is) but a delay of nearly five months needs an explanation.

Silly Fibs Happen When SSA Employees Are Stretched Past Their Limits

      I seem to be hearing an increase in silly fibs from Social Security employees designed to terminate telephone calls without the Social Security employee having to actually do something about a problem. Example: We called to ask about a missing SSI attorney fee payment and were told "You've already been paid. What you thought was just your Title II attorney fee payment was actually a payment for both the SSI and Title II attorney fees."  No, it doesn't work like that. Title II and SSI payments are never mixed. Field office employees know this as well as I do. Yes, the windfall offset can wipe out an SSI attorney fee but it would have been simple to have told us that but that's not what we were told and there's certainly been no notice to that effect or we wouldn't have been calling in the first place.

     My point here isn't that Social Security employees are liars. No, they're generally truthful and helpful but things are just a mess at Social Security now. There are huge backlogs everywhere. Field office and payment center employees are overwhelmed. Stretch good employees past their limits and things happen that shouldn't happen. Social Security's grossly inadequate operating budget is the problem here.

Grim Numbers

      From David Weaver writing for The Hill:

Last week, for the first time, the Social Security Administration (SSA) released information on the number of beneficiaries who died in 2020, the year the COVID-19 pandemic began. There were nearly 400,000 more beneficiary deaths in 2020 than the agency tabulated for 2019, representing a 17 percent year-over-year increase. ...

SSA’s statistics almost certainly reflect the concentration of COVID-19 deaths among the populations the agency serves. The CDC's death data, which includes all individuals and not just Social Security beneficiaries, indicates about 500,000 more deaths occurred in the United States in 2020 than in 2019. The CDC estimates that approximately 375,000 deaths in 2020 were due to COVID-19. ...

Republicans Raise Questions About Andrew Saul's Firing And About Acting Commissioner

      Three Republican Senators and two Republican members of the House of Representatives have written the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to raise questions about the legality of the firing of Andrew Saul as Commissioner of Social Security and about Kilolo Kijakazi's tenure as Acting Commissioner. 

     I predict their effort is going nowhere. If the GOP really thought it had a case, it would be suing, not messing with GAO. The questions about Kijakazi are fairly ridiculous. They imply darkly that Kijakazi hadn't served long enough with Social Security to have been eligible to become Acting Commissioner. Leaving aside the question of whether the Vacancies Reform Act even applies in this situation since the Social Security Act itself says specifically that the President can designate anyone to be Acting Commissioner, Kijakazi started work at Social Security in January, 2021, in plenty of time to have been there 90 days, as required by the Vacancies Reform Act, before Saul was fired.

Getting A Bit Vicious

      From a blog post by the Revolving Door Project, which is sponsored by the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a Washington think tank:

HuffPost reported last week that the Biden administration is considering a few unusual names for the long-delayed nomination of Administrator of the Social Security Administration. On one hand, there’s Nancy Altman, the President of Social Security Works who has fought for the economic security of seniors and Social Security recipients for years. She has written three books on the history and economics of Social Security, and currently serves on the Social Security Advisory Board, which provides oversight of the program. In other words, she is eminently qualified for the job.

On the other hand are two well-connected political insiders, both of whom Revolving Door Project has a history with: Seth Harris and Donna Shalala.

Harris is the former Acting Labor Secretary under Obama who later turned to shadow lobbying and legal work for union-busting BigLaw firms. As I wrote for the American Prospect last October, Harris is one of the intellectual architects of Prop 22, the California law which protects companies like Uber and Lyft from having to recognize their workers as full employees entitled to the minimum wage and benefits. That’s actually a Social Security issue, too: now-Interior Secretary Deb Haaland championed a bill in 2019 to require gig economy companies to pay their workers’ Social Security and Medicare taxes, since firms don’t have to pay those taxes for independent contractors (which is how gig economy firms misclassify their workers.)

Harris’ work has rarely touched on Social Security directly, but in his own words, he believes the old retirement formula of Social Security and pensions “is largely gone,” and at least part of the solution involves simply having people work longer. As he said at a Brookings Institution panel in 2019, “we should be encouraging some people to work more unless we are going to really dramatically transform the system that we have. We have transformed it. But let me also say, we’ve transformed it to favor more work, not to favor less work.”

In 2020, notably, Harris was a founding member of a research program funded by the private annuities industry. He also wrote personal finance columns for an annuity company’s website.

For her part, Shalala was a first-term Representative from Florida when the Revolving Door Project helped expose that she hadn’t filed ethics paperwork regarding her personal stock holdings, just as she was appointed to a board overseeing CARES Act funding. That funding could have benefited firms in which Shalala was invested. She ultimately, predictably, lost reelection.

What makes an unremarkable one-time Congresswoman qualified to lead one of the largest and most popular benefit programs in the federal government? Shalala’s backers point to her eight years as Bill Clinton’s Secretary of Health and Human Services. But that’s an inauspicious credential for the would-be head of a benefits program: Clinton infamously campaigned to “end welfare as we know it,” a crusade against the poor and misfortuned which utterly failed to do anything but make the government less caring to the most vulnerable, as Bryce Covert documented at the New Republic.

Shalala’s HHS work touched Social Security most directly when she appointed the 1994 Advisory Council on Social Security. The Advisory Council originally was the body which provided oversight of Social Security, but was later replaced by today’s Social Security Advisory Board. The bipartisan board Shalala picked ultimately came back with three different recommendations for making Social Security less generous, in the name of balancing budgets. The proposals included taxing some benefits; investing Social Security in stocks and equities; and gradually moving the system over to a set of individual investment accounts, similar to switching out a pension for a 401(k). None of these proposals were ultimately adopted. ...

     At least I'm glad there are people who care who becomes the Commissioner of Social Security. There's always great interest in the programs Social Security administers but usually great apathy about the agency itself.