Number On Social Security Disability Leveling Off

Source: Office of Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Disability Insurance Benefits Applications And Awards Heading Down

Source: Office of Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Less To The New House Rule Than Meets The Eye

     From Politico:

[A]n analysis by Social Security’s chief actuary, Stephen Goss, suggests there’s less to the new House rule [restricting the ability of the House to consider legislation to shift money from Social Security's Retirement Trust Fund to the Disability Trust Fund] than meets the eye. That’s because the point of order is triggered only if lawmakers exceed a “0.01 percent” threshold, which equates to a $38.6 billion cap on what any one Congress can move from the retirement fund, Goss told POLITICO.

That leaves too little room for some long-term, multiyear reallocation of payroll tax revenues but it is enough to get past 2016, by Goss’ calculations.

“We’re projecting [disability] trust funds will be depleted in December of 2016. … The shortfall for the ensuing 12 months would come to about $29 billion,” Goss said. “What that means is that we could have a tax rate reallocation that could apply in 2016 or 2016 and 2017 that would generate up to $30 billion or even $35 billion transferred to the [disability] trust fund, which would at least extend its reserve depletion date for one more year.”

Disability Claims And Awards Decreasing Rapidly

     Note that claims filed and awards made have gone down in each of the last three years. Note also that the number of people drawing benefits is almost the same as it was at the end of last year and that the number has gone down in each of the last three months.

Disabled worker beneficiary statistics by calendar year, quarter, and month

		Awards b			In current payment status		Terminations c
Time period	Number of appli- cations a	Number	Increase over prior period	Percent of appli- cations	Number at end of period	Increase over prior period	Number	Increase over prior period	Termi- nation rate
—by calendar year—
2000 .....	1,330,558	621,650	0.19%	46.72%	5,042,334	3.34%	461,626	6.25%	8.72%
2001 .....	1,498,559	691,309	11.21%	46.13%	5,274,183	4.60%	456,258	-1.16%	8.31%
2002 .....	1,682,454	750,464	8.56%	44.61%	5,543,981	5.12%	479,606	5.12%	8.34%
2003 .....	1,895,521	777,905	3.66%	41.04%	5,873,673	5.95%	450,720	-6.02%	7.46%
2004 .....	2,137,531	797,226	2.48%	37.30%	6,201,362	5.58%	466,332	3.46%	7.32%
2005 .....	2,122,109	832,201	4.39%	39.22%	6,524,582	5.21%	494,592	6.06%	7.36%
2006 .....	2,134,088	812,596	-2.36%	38.08%	6,811,679	4.40%	513,292	3.78%	7.28%
2007 .....	2,190,196	823,106	1.29%	37.58%	7,101,355	4.25%	525,012	2.28%	7.14%
2008 .....	2,320,396	895,011	8.74%	38.57%	7,427,203	4.59%	564,518	7.52%	7.34%
2009 .....	2,816,244	985,940	10.16%	35.01%	7,789,113	4.87%	628,478	11.33%	7.79%
2010 .....	2,935,798	1,052,551	6.76%	35.85%	8,204,710	5.34%	646,387	2.85%	7.64%
2011 .....	2,878,920	1,025,003	-2.62%	35.60%	8,576,067	4.53%	656,902	1.63%	7.42%
2012 .....	2,820,812	979,973	-4.39%	34.74%	8,827,795	2.94%	726,432	10.58%	7.90%
2013 .....	2,640,100	884,894	-9.70%	33.52%	8,942,584	1.30%	767,738	5.69%	8.17%
2014 .....	2,521,459	810,973	-8.35%	32.16%	8,954,518	0.13%	793,646	3.37%	8.37%
—by quarter—
2011 Q1	720,119	258,086	-1.49%	35.84%	8,295,845	1.11%	166,219	3.37%	1.96%
2011 Q2	760,621	268,853	4.17%	35.35%	8,403,449	1.30%	162,166	-2.44%	1.89%
2011 Q3	737,468	259,181	-3.60%	35.14%	8,495,983	1.10%	167,036	3.00%	1.93%
2011 Q4	660,712	238,883	-7.83%	36.16%	8,576,067	0.94%	161,481	-3.33%	1.85%
2012 Q1	724,746	249,638	4.50%	34.44%	8,657,739	0.95%	168,420	4.30%	1.91%
2012 Q2	731,817	245,719	-1.57%	33.58%	8,733,461	0.87%	169,456	0.62%	1.90%
2012 Q3	726,026	241,207	-1.84%	33.22%	8,786,049	0.60%	188,311	11.13%	2.10%
2012 Q4	638,223	243,409	0.91%	38.14%	8,827,795	0.48%	200,245	6.34%	2.22%
2013 Q1	680,292	228,922	-5.95%	33.65%	8,853,614	0.29%	201,245	0.50%	2.22%
2013 Q2	691,519	228,909	-0.01%	33.10%	8,892,515	0.44%	189,796	-5.69%	2.09%
2013 Q3	674,292	225,905	-1.31%	33.50%	8,925,372	0.37%	192,523	1.44%	2.11%
2013 Q4	593,997	201,158	-10.95%	33.87%	8,942,584	0.19%	184,174	-4.34%	2.01%
2014 Q1	637,675	196,765	-2.18%	30.86%	8,932,828	-0.11%	203,364	10.42%	2.22%
2014 Q2	662,498	215,638	9.59%	32.55%	8,954,010	0.24%	192,440	-5.37%	2.10%
2014 Q3	642,096	209,492	-2.85%	32.63%	8,958,415	0.05%	204,413	6.22%	2.22%
2014 Q4	579,190	189,078	-9.74%	32.65%	8,954,518	-0.04%	193,429	-5.37%	2.10%
—by month—
13-Oct	199,340	70,800	-7.62%	35.52%	8,936,932	0.13%	59,479	-7.35%	0.65%
13-Nov	226,149	68,375	-3.43%	30.23%	8,941,660	0.05%	63,357	6.52%	0.70%
13-Dec	168,508	61,983	-9.35%	36.78%	8,942,584	0.01%	61,338	-3.19%	0.67%
14-Jan	230,401	61,479	-0.81%	26.68%	8,930,246	-0.14%	71,266	16.19%	0.78%
14-Feb	196,030	64,081	4.23%	32.69%	8,929,419	-0.01%	64,568	-9.40%	0.71%
14-Mar	211,244	71,205	11.12%	33.71%	8,932,828	0.04%	67,530	4.59%	0.74%
14-Apr	210,051	77,130	8.32%	36.72%	8,942,232	0.11%	66,821	-1.05%	0.73%
14-May	248,143	66,764	-13.44%	26.91%	8,947,220	0.06%	61,970	-7.26%	0.68%
14-Jun	204,304	71,744	7.46%	35.12%	8,954,010	0.08%	63,649	2.71%	0.70%
14-Jul	190,808	64,142	-10.60%	33.62%	8,951,519	-0.03%	66,502	4.48%	0.73%
14-Aug	255,285	68,810	7.28%	26.95%	8,952,842	0.01%	67,972	2.21%	0.75%
14-Sep	196,003	76,540	11.23%	39.05%	8,958,415	0.06%	69,939	2.89%	0.77%
14-Oct	243,114	64,139	-16.20%	26.38%	8,957,699	-0.01%	65,657	-6.12%	0.72%
14-Nov	171,326	61,055	-4.81%	35.64%	8,956,269	-0.02%	62,271	-5.16%	0.68%
14-Dec	164,750	63,884	4.63%	38.78%	8,954,518	-0.02%	65,501	5.19%	0.72%

Source: Office of Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Senator Opposes Social Security Cuts

     Sherrod Brown, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee says that Democrats must not give an inch on Social Security. He opposes any cuts in Social Security disability. 

Colvin Not Re-Nominated So Far

President Obama has made a number of re-nominations since the beginning of this Congress. Carolyn Colvin's name is not on the list

Why Do Some States Have High Levels Of Disability?

From the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

A Collective Yawn

     I can't find any sign that the news media are picking up the story of indictments for alleged Social Security disability fraud in Puerto Rico. Maybe local media in Puerto Rico are covering this but even Fox News isn't covering the story.

    So far, I'm not sensing any momentum behind the campaign to cut Social Security disability.