There's a simple answer why the Trustees report says that the Disability Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2016 rather than 2017 as I have suggested. It assumes that the modest improvement in the operation of the Disability Trust Fund seen over the last two years will disappear and be replaced by a modestly increased decline. That may happen.
There is a significant difference between the Trustees report and what has been happening so far this year. The rate at which the Disability Trust Fund declined was down by 12% in the first six months of this year when compared to the first six months of last year but the Trustees report assumes that by the time the year is over that the Disability Trust Fund will have declined by the same amount as last year.
This year's Trustees report projects that the Disability Trust Fund will be only $3.6 billion short of making it into 2017. If the improvement in the Disability Trust Fund continues in the last half of this year at the same rate as in the first half, we'll have made up that ground by the end of this year.