Wild Ass Guesses For The New Year

Early in my career as a lawyer I heard an expert witness at an administrative hearing (not before Social Security) testify that she could not answer the hypothetical question asked her with reasonable certainty, but that she could give a "wild ass guess." I think I have heard other wild ass guesses from expert witnesses over the years but that expert was the only one honest enough to describe her testimony accurately.

I will be honest enough to label my predictions for 2009 as being more wild ass guesses than anything else. Here they are:

1. Michael Astrue will stay on as Commissioner of Social Security throughout 2009. However, he will be under increasing pressure from Congress to do something about the service delivery problems at Social Security. His problem is that he has backed himself into a corner by promising that his plans will bring down the backlogs without big increases in staffing, but what he has promised is impossible. There will be tense Congressional hearings with testy exchanges.
2. John Lewis of Atlanta will become the new Chairman of the House Social Security Subcommittee, replacing Mike McNulty who is retiring. Lewis is currently the Chairman of the Oversight Subcommittee of Ways and Means. He will switch because the Oversight Subcommittee will be much less fun for a Democrat to chair in the Obama Administration than it was in the Bush Administration.
3. Congress will enact and President Obama will sign a budget for Social Security for fiscal year (FY) 2009 (which began on October 1, 2008) of $10.477 billion, $150 million above the Bush budget proposal for the agency. This will happen by February 15, 2009.
   
4. Obama and Astrue will put out similar proposed budgets for Social Security for FY 2010 (which begins on October 1, 2009) of about $11.2 billion. This appropriation will be passed essentially as is, before the beginning of FY 2010. This will not be enough money to add more than a modest number of new employees at Social Security.
   
5. There will be little or no improvement in the hearing backlogs at Social Security in 2009 -- except in Atlanta where there will be dramatic improvements.
   
6. Service at Social Security field offices will continue to slowly decline in 2009. Social Security's inability to answer its telephones and the increasing wait times at Social Security field offices will slowly become a public issue.
7. Social Security will end the year with about 1225 Administrative Law Judges (ALJ) and an ALJ staffing ratio that is lower than what it is currently.
8. In 2009, Congress will be working on plans to do something about the hearing backlog at Social Security, but nothing will pass in 2009. The plans under discussion will include removing Social Security from the unified federal budget and requiring regular reports on service delivery at Social Security. Time limits and interim benefits will be discussed but will not go forward. Commissioner Astrue will oppose all such legislative efforts and claim that his plans will solve the backlog problem. Even Congressional Republicans will be openly skeptical of his claim.
   
9. President Obama will appoint a Democrat to the position of Deputy Commissioner of Social Security. That person will have no prior background in Social Security. Commissioner Astrue will give the Deputy Commissioner major duties, placing him or her in charge of modernization of Social Security's computer systems and procurement generally, but will keep him or her well away from budget, policy and anything pertaining to disability or hearings. Astrue will concentrate on these matters himself, in the vain belief that he will be able to manage Social Security into giving better public service without significant additional personnel.
   
10. President Obama will appoint a Democrat to the position of Inspector General at Social Security. The appointee will have the Office of Inspector General (OIG) start preparing reports on service delivery at Social Security. He or she will testify before Congress frequently and will slowly become a major thorn in Michael Astrue's side.
11. There will be an increase in the number of disability claims filed in 2009 which will be blamed upon the recession, but the real reason for the increase will be the aging of the baby boomer population. Commissioner Astrue will claim that the increase in claims filed was unexpected.
    
12. There will be Congressional hearings on the 24 month waiting period for Medicare after a person qualifies for Social Security disability benefits. Legislation will move forward on this issue but will not become law in 2009.
13. Commissioner Astrue will officially but quietly withdraw the regulations proposed by Commissioner Barnhart that would increase the age categories in the Grid Regulations by two years. He will also quietly withdraw the controversial procedural regulations that he proposed. Both are actually still pending and, in theory, could be made official at any time -- but it is too late for that to happen during the Bush Administration and neither could happen in the Obama Administration.
    
14. Commissioner Astrue will raise the cap on attorney fees for representing Social Security claimants and will begin the process to adopt regulations that would put in an automatic cost of living adjustment, but he will slow roll this.
15. The proposed rules on representation of claimants will still be pending as of the end of 2009.
16. Commissioner Astrue will begin holding regular meetings with the heads of the employee unions at Social Security, but these meetings will be contentious. The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) will demand that Congress do something about the situation. Democrats in Congress will be interested in helping the union, but nothing will happen in 2009.
    

Basically, I am predicting that things will not change that much in 2009, but that by year's end there will be signs of significant changes coming in 2010 and beyond as well as a storm gathering around Michael Astrue. I have not seen enough sign of flexibility in Michael Astrue for him to avoid major conflict with Congress, the new Inspector General at Social Security and the employee unions. He has a history of resigning in a huff when others question what he is doing, but I do not see him doing that in 2009.

What are your predictions, or wild ass guesses, for 2009?