OIG Says ODAR Will Meet Its Goals -- If ...

From a recent report by Social Security's Office of Inspector General (OIG):

At the end of May 2009, over 750,000 hearings were pending in ODAR [Office of Disability Adjudication and Review], and the average processing time was 494 days. As outlined in its Fiscal Year (FY) 2008 2013 Strategic Plan, the Social Security Administration (SSA) plans to reduce the number of pending hearings to a desired level of 466,000 and the average processing time to 270 days by FY 2013. According to SSA, a pending level of 466,000 hearings ensures a sufficient number of cases to maximize the efficiency of the hearings process.

The Acting Deputy Commissioner of SSA asked that we evaluate the impact of ODAR's current MI [Management Information] and ODAR's proposals on its ability to reduce the backlog to the desired pending level. To address his request, we examined the workload ODAR would need to complete to process projected hearing requests and reduce the backlog to the desired pending level by FY 2013; identified MI currently available for officials to manage ODAR's workload, any reported shortfalls in available MI, and any reported shortfalls in the use of the MI to manage effectively; and reviewed ODAR's proposals, along with their potential impact on (1) addressing any shortfalls in ODAR's existing MI and (2) the likelihood SSA will meet its goal of reducing the backlog to the desired pending level by FY 2013. ...

Regardless of whether the FY 2010 proposals are approved, it appears SSA will achieve the desired pending hearings level by FY 2013 based on the currently projected level of receipts. Specifically, if SSA follows its current administrative law judge (ALJ) hiring plan and the current average ALJ productivity level remains constant, ODAR's pending hearing level should fall below 466,000. However, the timing of ALJ hiring will impact ODAR's ability to achieve this desired pending level. Therefore, SSA should continue to work with the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) to ensure ALJs are hired within the planned time frames.

Note that the goals can be achieved if Social Security's current projections of future receipts are accurate. However, we know that those projections are wildly inaccurate. Social Security is seeing a flood of new disability claims. Even if the projections are accurate, the backlog condition that Social Security is seeking to achieve, nine months, is far worse than what Social Security used to find acceptable.