Headcount Inches Up

    The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) has finally posted updated numbers showing the headcount of employees at each agency as of the second and third quarters on 2023. Note that these numbers do not tell the whole story. They don't account for part time employees nor for overtime. Overtime is a huge part of the story at Social Security. A Full Time Equivalent (FTE) report would cover that but we seldom see FTE reports.  Here are Social Security's numbers as of September with earlier headcount numbers for comparison:

• September, 2023 61,410
  
• June, 2023 60,726
  
• March, 2023  59,400
• December, 2022 58,916
  
• September, 2022 57,754
  
• June, 2022 58,332
  
• March, 2022 59,257
  
• December, 2021 60,422
  
• December 2020 61,816
  
• December 2019 61,969
  
• December 2018 62,946
  
• December 2017 62,777
• December 2016 63,364
• December 2015 65,518
• December 2014 65,430
• December 2013 61,957
• December 2012 64,538
• December 2010 70,270
• December 2009 67,486
• December 2008 63,733

Reaction To O'Malley's Decision On Telework

     Tom Temin at Federal News Network has a piece up on the new Commissioner's e-mail to staff decreasing telework for some employees. He is kind enough to refer to this blog by name as "reliable." He quotes several comments made to the post.

    Erich Wagner at Government Executive has a longer piece on the e-mail, particularly to the reaction of Rich Couture, chief negotiator for the American Federation of Government Employees, the union that represents most Social Security employees. Couture expressed relief at what O'Malley had done. The article says that only 4,000 bargaining unit employees would be affected by the announcement. Here's a quote from Couture:

AFGE is pleased to see [O’Malley] is maintaining telework at current levels, and it’s clear that the commissioner recognizes the importance of telework for workers and their work-life balance, as well as its importance for retention and recruitment efforts,” Couture said. “We’re still in a public service crisis fueled by understaffing and attrition, and one way to maintain staffing levels is by offering telework. A commitment to continuing current telework levels for those employees is critical to keeping the agency’s ability to serve the public intact by keeping our employees working here.

     After almost 100 comments, I cut off commenting on the original post since the comments had become so repetitive but, still, I don't think anyone mentioned something about O'Malley's e-mail that caught my eye. Before signing his name to the e-mail, the Commissioner included the phrase "Yours in solidarity." That word, "solidarity," has long been associated with labor unions.

Trying To Undermine Social Security From The Inside

     From Alex Lawson, writing for Common Dreams:

Mitch McConnell and his fellow Republicans have a problem. They hate Social Security, because it is popular, effective, and doesn’t make any money for their billionaire donors. But their voters love Social Security. Ninety-four percent of Republicans oppose benefit cuts.

McConnell understands the political dangers of being openly hostile to Social Security. So instead, he is plotting to sabotage it from within. The latest instrument of that sabotage is Andrew Biggs, a senior fellow at the billionaire-funded American Enterprise Institute. Biggs is McConnell’s pick to serve on the Social Security Advisory Board (SSAB) ...

Biggs served as an associate commissioner of Social Security under former President George W. Bush and was instrumental in Bush’s push to privatize Social Security. ...

Biggs supports raising the retirement age, and has testified before Congress that people should work longer. ...

Biggs also wants to turn Social Security from an earned benefit into a poverty-level flat benefit. That means huge cuts for middle class workers who’ve been paying into the program their entire lives. It would destroy Social Security’s political popularity by turning it into a welfare program—a sitting duck for Republicans to make even larger cuts. ...

     Biggs came under serious criticism at the hearing on his nomination.

    The good thing about this nomination is that the SSAB isn't much of a platform from which to launch attacks on Social Security. For better or worse, it's pretty obscure. Also, while Republicans like to talk about privatizing Social Security, raising the retirement age or turning it into something they can deride as "welfare," they have virtually no interest in actually doing anything along these lines.

A Message From The New Commissioner To Agency Employees On Telework

From: ^Commissioner Broadcast <Commissioner.Broadcast@ssa.gov>
Sent: Tuesday, January 30, 2024 2:31 PM
Subject: Increasing Our Onsite Presence

A Message to All SSA Employees

Subject:  Increasing Our Onsite Presence 

Every morning for the last 32 days, I’ve been going to work at headquarters or catching pre-dawn flights to Social Security Regions across our country. 

I do this to hear from — and learn from — as many of you as possible, as soon as possible, about what’s really going on.

And while the best ideas for improving our operations always come from those on the frontlines, some decisions must ultimately fall to the Commissioner.

So, let’s acknowledge this truth:

The Covid pandemic and shutdown changed the nature of work. There is no private sector company or public agency in the world which has since found the perfect balance between onsite presence and telework.

But because I understand any new adjustments to our telework policies will affect you personally, I wanted to give you as much advance notice as possible so you can make adjustments in your own balance between work and life.

After much listening and deep consideration of currently available evidence, I have decided that the following policies will be effective across the Social Security Administration beginning April 7, 2024.

Here’s WHAT’S NOT changing:

• Field Offices will remain open to the public five days a week.
• Employees in field offices, teleservice centers, and program service centers (including the Office of Central Operations) will continue their current balance of onsite presence and telework. 
• Employees in hearing offices, hearing centers, and case assistance centers will continue their current balance of onsite presence and telework. ALJ hearings will continue to be held five days a week by teleconference, videoconference, or in-person, at the option of claimants and their representatives.
• Employees in the Office of Appellate Operations and the Office of Quality Review will continue their current balance of onsite days and telework.
• Employees with nonportable workloads and those ineligible for telework will continue their onsite presence.

Here’s WHAT IS changing:

• In our headquarters and regional offices, we will be moving to “core collaboration days.”  We do this in order to better serve the American people, to better support our new trainees, and to better support and train our frontline workers in their mission.

Therefore:

• I will be present onsite at the Baltimore Headquarters (or in regional or area offices) five days a week.
• The Commissioner’s Office will be onsite four days a week with one day of telework optional.
• Because servant leaders make themselves present and accountable to the people they lead, Deputy Commissioners, employees in headquarters components, regional offices, and area director offices will increase their onsite presence to three days per week with two days of telework optional.
• Employees in the Office of the Chief Information Officer (OCIO) will increase their onsite presence to two days per week — with greater presence for top level executives at the discretion of the CIO.

Our return to a greater onsite presence not only gives us more opportunity for collaboration, engagement, and innovation, but it also brings us into alignment with other federal agencies across government, who have been increasing their own onsite presence.

Conclusion:

In the coming days, you will receive more information from your managers about logistics like signing up for a transit subsidy, updating your parking badge, making your desk arrangements, and more.  Facilities will also be working to expand cafeteria and onsite food options on core collaboration days.

As we improve the quality of our data to measure our effectiveness across the complex components of the Agency, we will continue to adjust in order to reach the best possible balance within individual units. These decisions will honor both the letter and the spirit of our Union agreements. And these decisions will be based on the mission of SSA using the best available evidence, not fear.

Our mission is the security of the men, women, and children of our Nation.

Thank you for your dedication, and I look forward to seeing you in-person if I haven’t already.

Yours in solidarity,

Martin O’Malley

Commissioner

How Crazy Is The Right Wing In America?

     People are starting to ask what will happen to Social Security benefits if Texas secedes.

Improvement In Mail Processing But Some Problems Persist

    From Follow-up: The Social Security Administration’s Implementation of Mail Procedures, a report by Social Security's Office of Inspector General (footnotes omitted):

...  Mail processing at SSA offices is primarily a manual workload. This requires that managers and employees open each mail item, scan the program-related documents into a workload management system, and assign to staff. SSA’s regional offices are responsible for monitoring the status of mail handling in their region ...

In September 2021, SSA issued a Mail Handling BPD that focused on 10 key issues significant to mail processing. ...

We judgmentally selected and visited 87 SSA offices throughout the continental United States. At each office, we interviewed management and observed the mail handling process. ...

SSA offices had improved mail processing since our July 2021 review. SSA offices we visited generally complied with the requirements in the Agency’s Mail Handling BPD.While most offices were meeting the requirements of 6 of the 10 BPD key issues, some offices did not always meet the requirements ...

Of the 87 offices visited, the following offices complied with the timeliness metrics established:

• 86 (98.9 percent) received mail directly from mail carriers,

• 84  (96.6 percent) opened mail within 1 business day of receipt,

• 81 (93.1 percent) processed all Social Security number applications within 5 business days of receipt, and

• 79 (90.8 percent) returned all original primary evidence documents to customers within 3 business days  of receipt and kept a log of the returned documents.  ...

• 73 (83.9 percent) processed their undeliverable returned mail within 5 business days of receipt, as required. However, the remaining 14 offices had undeliverable returned mail over 30-days-old. Moreover, three of these offices had mail dated back to January 2022, and one with mail dated back to September 2019. ... 
  

• 67 (77 percent) complied with the requirements for remittances and returned unendorsed Treasury checks. Specifically, the offices processed to completion all remittances and returned unendorsed Treasury checks within 1 business day of receipt, 16 recorded receipt in the office’s remittance log, and secured 17 checks that could not be processed to completion the same day. The remaining 20 offices had the following issues:
  

• 17 did not process remittances within the required timeframe. Of these, 15 offices had checks that remained unprocessed 3 to 31 days after the 1-business-day requirement. Additionally, two offices had unprocessed checks that dated back to July 2020 and November 2021. The banks could return these checks as non-negotiable since they were not endorsed within 6 months, as required by banks.,
  

• 5 did not use remittance logs, as required. For example, 1 office had 77 unprocessed checks that were unsecured and accessible to office staff. In fact, 1 office had 58 checks dating back to October 2022 with no record they existed. The new remittance manager was unaware these unprocessed checks were locked in a safe because they were not recorded in the office’s remittance log.
  

• 2 did not properly secure the unprocessed checks. For example, 1 office had 77 unprocessed checks that were unsecured and accessible to office staff.

• 36 (41.4 percent) scanned and profiled mail within 5 business days of receipt, as required. The remaining 51 offices, on average, scanned and profiled mail within 10 business days of receipt. ...

New Allegations Against Social Security Inspector General

     From Federal News Network (emphasis added):

House Democrats are reigniting an investigation into Department of Homeland Security Inspector General Joseph Cuffari’s use of taxpayer dollars to settle claims of retaliation by his former top deputy.

And lawmakers are also probing whether the Social Security Administration’s inspector general inappropriately referred Cuffari to her former law firm in connection with the retaliation investigation. A spokeswoman for the SSA IG called the assertions “blatantly inaccurate.” ...

DHS OIG spent $1.4 million on a 2020 contract with law firm WilmerHale to conduct an investigation into allegations of misconduct by Costello and other former employees. The investigation ultimately did not substantiate any allegations of illegal misconduct.

[Jamie] Raskin [House Oversight and and Accountability Ranking Member] is now investigating the role SSA Inspector General Gail Ennis may have played in the DHS OIG’s decision to contract with WilmerHale. Ennis was a partner at WilmerHale before becoming SSA IG in January 2019.

In deposition before the Merit Systems Protection Board, Cuffari said he asked Ennis to have her office conduct the investigation. Ennis declined to take it on due to the high workload, Cuffari said.

Raskin is probing whether she had a role in advising Cuffari to select WilmerHale for the investigation.

“If true, this would appear to violate your ethics agreement, which shows that you were a partner at WilmerHale and continue to have an ongoing financial stake in the firm’s profitability,” Raskin wrote in a letter to Ennis today. “As a result, your referral to your former employer WilmerHale potentially represents a financial conflict of interest.”

 A spokeswoman for the SSA OIG told Federal News Network that “Inspector General Ennis looks forward to the opportunity to respond to Ranking Member Raskin to correct the blatantly inaccurate assertions made in the letter.” ...

SSAB Nominations Advance

     The Senate Finance Committee has scheduled a hearing for January 31 on four nominations, including these three to the Social Security Advisory Board:

• Andrew G. Biggs, of Oregon
• Kathryn Rose Lang, of Maryland
• Sharon Beth Lewis, of Oregon

Report On AI At Social Security

     Here's a piece by four researchers touting Social Security's progress in Artificial Intelligence. It's somewhat odd. Apparently, it hasn't been published unless you consider releasing it online as publication. It has no date on it. I don't see any source cited from after 2021 so this may be a few years old. I may not the one who should say this but I'm not sure if what they're calling "Artificial Intelligence" would generally be called "Artificial Intelligence" today.

A Tale Of Two Trust Funds

     Social Security has released information showing how its trust funds have done through the end of 2023. Here are summaries for the Old Age and Survivors Trust Fund and the Disability Insurance Trust fund for the last five years. You'll notice that they're heading in opposite directions. I expect that money will eventually be diverted from the Disability Insurance Trust Fund to the Old Age and Survivor's Trust Fund, not that it will be enough to make much difference.

Old-Age and Survivors Insurance
(Amounts in millions)

Calendar year	Total income	Total outgo	Net increase in asset reserves	Asset reserves at end of calendar year
2019	$917,873	$911,423	$6,450	$2,804,322
2020	968,348	960,954	7,394	2,811,716
2021	942,856	1,001,936	-59,080	2,752,636
2022	1,056,718	1,097,455	-40,737	2,711,899
2023	1,166,885	1,237,294	-70,409	2,641,490

Disability Insurance
(Amounts in millions)

Calendar year	Total income	Total outgo	Net increase in asset reserves	Asset reserves at end of calendar year
2019	$143,901	$147,876	$-3,974	$93,083
2020	149,748	146,260	3,488	96,570
2021	145,470	142,646	2,824	99,394
2022	165,063	146,470	18,594	117,988
2023	183,801	154,815	28,985	146,973

What About Occupational Information? Does Scientific Integrity Apply To That?

     From today's Federal Register:

The SSA is soliciting comments and suggestions from the public on the DRAFT Scientific Integrity Policy of the Social Security Administration (DRAFT SSA Scientific Integrity Policy). The DRAFT SSA Scientific Integrity Policy codifies expectations to preserve scientific integrity throughout SSA scientific activities, establishes key roles and responsibilities for those who will lead the agency’s scientific integrity program, and, as appropriate, establishes relevant reporting and evaluation mechanisms.

    Social Security uses occupational information in determining which disability claims to approve. The source it's using now mostly dates back to 1979! Everyone concedes that it's hopelessly out of date but they're still using it. They've been working on a replacement now for well over a decade but almost nothing has been released and the agency is extremely vague on what's going on and when they'll be finished. I'm not the only one who's convinced that they keep delaying releasing anything because the data doesn't jibe with what the agency wants it to say. I think they want to keep massaging the data until it says that they don't have to change who they're approving and who they're denying even a little bit. Am I being unfair to Social Security? They can always make a full release of the data collected to date and give a good explanation for the delay. Does anyone still believe that this remains a good faith effort to collect data?

A Poll

online polls

Social Security Disability Recipients Hit Hard By Covid

     From Health Affairs Scholar:

New data from the Social Security Administration suggest there were 260 000 excess deaths in the United States among current or former disability beneficiaries during the first 22 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. These beneficiaries accounted for 26% of all excess deaths in the United States during this period. ...

Social Security Needs More Offices In Rural Areas, Not Fewer

Bryan County, OK

     From Barriers and Communications Preferences of Rural Populations: A Scoping Review by Megan Henly, Shreya Paul, Debra Brucker, Andrew J. Houtenville, Kelly Nye-Lengerman and Stacia Bach

Key Findings:


Rural areas of the United States warrant separate attention when considering how to communicate information about federal programs in part because their geography affects how information can be shared effectively (remoteness results in greater distance between field offices and lower level of broadband internet access) and in part because rural communities have a higher representation of many program-eligible groups (e.g., those older than 65, those who have a disability, and those who are low-income).

Mode of program communication affects the likelihood of the information reaching the public. Traditionally, the Social Security Administration mailed statements to all workers. In addition, private-sector employers often trained new hires about funding their retirements during orientation. As both these forms of communication have been substantially reduced since 2011, the public’s knowledge of OASDI benefits has been low.

When considering the general shift toward online information dissemination, this is a particular concern for those in rural areas, people with disabilities, and groups with low digital literacy. Broadband access is not as ubiquitous in rural areas as it is in nonrural ones. Perhaps as a result, many who reside in rural places are digitally illiterate and would have difficulty navigate online. In addition, most federal websites do not meet federal accessibility guidelines, creating a barrier for those with disabilities.

Community context is important, particularly when considering program enrollment that may carry a stigma, such as SSI or food and energy assistance. Identifying local community partners who can provide technical assistance may help. For communities of particularly marginalized groups (e.g., the unhoused, those recently released from prison, low English proficiency individuals, and those with serious mental health disabilities), having dedicated staff trained in dealing with populations facing vulnerabilities may be particularly useful. ...

It's An Idea

    From The Case For Using Subsidies For Retirement Plans To Fix Social Security by Andrew Biggs and Alicia Munnell:

The U.S. Treasury estimates that the tax preference for employer-sponsored retirement plans and IRAs reduced federal income taxes by about $185-$189 billion in 2020, equal to about 0.9 percent of gross domestic product.1 However, the best evidence suggests that the federal tax preferences do little to increase retirement saving.  ...

The [report] concludes that it makes little sense to throw more and more taxpayer money at employer plans and IRAs. In fact, the case is strong for eliminating the current tax expenditures on retirement plans, and using the increase in tax revenues to address Social Security’s long-term financing shortfall. ...

    This doesn't appeal to me. It's very unlikely to pass. There aren't specific tax revenues involved, just a reduction in tax preferences. I'd be more in favor of dedicating revenues from the estate tax, excise taxes and tariffs to Social Security but I doubt that would be enough to matter much. It's becoming more and more obvious to me that the only solution to the long term funding shortfall is an infusion of general tax revenues. The things that people discuss, raising full retirement age and lifting the cap on wages covered by the FICA tax, even together, aren't nearly enough to solve the long term funding problem.

This Is What's Going On At Ground Level

    Here's a note made recently by an employee at my firm about a pending disability claim that may give you some idea of the state of service at Social Security :

TC [telephone call to] ____ DO [District Office] and she said there is an initial claim that has been sitting there since 7/14/2023. She is sending it to the CR [claims representative] Mr. ____ but he is off.

    In case you don't understand the context, the DO only takes the claims. They don't make medical determinations. Those are made at Disability Determination Services (DDS). Under normal circumstances -- which don't currently exist -- new claims are forwarded from the DO to DDS in a week or two. Even if there is some technical problem, the claim isn't supposed to be sitting at a DO for six months! 

    For this to happen there has to be no effective tickler system at the DO. I'm sure there's supposed to be one but it's broken down entirely under the enormous pressure of overwhelming workloads.

    I'm not even mad at the personnel involved because I have an idea of just how overwhelmed they are.  If a case happens to fall by the wayside now, we're just about at what I've described before as the "Not now. Not later. Not ever" stage of service. Problems aren't being straightened out.

    And please don't blame my firm. We've been trying for three months to find out what happened to the case. It's almost impossible to get anyone on the phone. There's no smart trick that solves cases like this. There's far too many of them. We're not supposed to be Social Security's tickler system anyway.

Electronic Payroll Data Proposed Regs Advance

     Social Security's proposed rules on Use of Electronic Payroll Data To Improve Program Administration have been approved by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA). They can now be published in the Federal Register for public comments.

Disability Claims Filed And Awarded Increased Modestly In 2023

    Social Security has posted final numbers on disability claims and awards for calendar year 2023. With the pandemic tamped down to a level which permits most people to live normally, the number of disability claims filed and awarded increased modestly.

 

Number of applications
Field office                                                                           receipts	Initial DDS receipts

 

2009 .....	2,816,244	1,798,975
2010 .....	2,935,798	1,926,398
2011 .....	2,878,920	1,859,591
2012 .....	2,824,024	1,808,863
2013 .....	2,653,939	1,702,700
2014 .....	2,536,174	1,633,652
2015 .....	2,427,443	1,552,119
2016 .....	2,321,583	1,473,700
2017 .....	2,179,928	1,377,803
2018 .....	2,073,293	1,300,668
2019 .....	2,015,182	1,309,863
2020 .....	1,838,893	1,226,236
2021 .....	1,820,282	1,210,545
2022 .....	1,804,384	1,205,686
2023 .....	1,904,635	1,248,378

  

Number of Awards

2009 .....985,940
2010 .....1,052,551
2011 .....1,025,003
2012 .....979,973
2013 .....884,894
2014 .....810,973
2015 .....775,739
2016 .....744,268
2017 .....762,141
2018 .....733,879
2019 ....723,858
2020 .....648,121
2021 .....571,952
2022 .....543,445
2023 .....561,585

 

Some Thoughts On The New Commissioner

     I hope that the new Commissioner, Martin O'Malley, doesn't suffer from the illusion that his management skills will rescue the Social Security Administration. I'm not knocking his management skills which may be excellent. It's just that for literally decades Social Security's leadership labored under the belief that good management could overcome appropriations that declined in real dollars. They tried ever more desperately as service declined. The peak of this management hubris was former Commissioner Barnhart's ill-fated "plan" to overhaul the agency's hearing functions and make everything vastly better without additional funding. It sold well to Congressional committees who were happy to hear Barnhart promise to pull a rabbit out of a hat but her "plan" wasn't much of a plan to begin with -- more of a plan to develop a plan. Such as the "plan" was, it made no sense. All she was able to accomplish was to delay the complete collapse of her "plan" until after she left office. Let's not repeat that disaster.

    Please, Commissioner O'Malley, don't fall into the trap of believing that your management abilities will make a world of difference. They won't. 

    However, there is something O'Malley can do that would help, and that's lobbying. I have read the book written by the first head of what is today the Social Security Administration, Arthur Altmeyer, on The Formative Years Of Social Security. I don't recommend the book. I was expecting accounts of how a huge agency was built from the ground up, creating systems that to some extent must still exist. How did they make sure everyone got a Social Security number? How did they handle data processing at a time when the finest data processing equipment available (and there was some) was at the caveman level? How did they hire all the people needed? How did they record all the wages? How did they compute benefits? There is almost none of that in the book. Instead, the book is mostly a dry account of how Altmeyer lobbied Congress for legislation needed to complete the Social Security Act with additional benefits. Altmeyer was quite successful at this, although not successful enough to get disability benefits, which were added after he left office. Altmeyer must have mostly delegated actual management of the new agency to others while he did what was most needed and what he was best at. 

    There is no law requiring that a Social Security Commisisoner spend his or her time tied down with day to day operations. Let others who know the agency better do that. O'Malley should spend most of his time lobbying within the Administration and with Congress for better operational funding. That's where he's needed and where his skills can make a difference.

Operating Stats From Office Of Hearings Operations

 

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