2.8 % COLA

      The Social Security Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026 is 2.8%.

Conflict Of Interest?

      From the Baltimore Sun:

Congressional Democrats are investigating whether Social Security Commissioner Frank Bisignano knew — and should have disclosed — that his company stood to benefit from a huge contract overseeing a debit card program serving millions of recipients of Social Security and other programs, The Baltimore Sun has learned.

The Senate Finance Committee’s Democratic staff, led by Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, is exploring whether Bisignano knew during his confirmation procedures that the firm, Fiserv, had bid — or was planning to — on a pending 5-year Direct Express contract, which distributes government benefits to about 3.4 million Americans via prepaid cards, a committee spokesperson said.

Another Democrat, Connecticut Rep. John Larson, told The Sun that Bisignano’s “connection to Fiserv certainly raises questions about Treasury’s new contract. Especially as he moves to end paper checks for monthly benefits, which could push hundreds of thousands of Americans over to Direct Express, he has a responsibility to be transparent about any potential conflicts of interest.” …

The contract was awarded to Fifth Third, an Ohio-based bank, and began on Sept. 9, according to the company’s news release that day naming Money Network Financial, LLC as the program’s manager. Money Network Financial is a subsidiary of Fiserv, the company Bisignano headed as chairman and CEO until stepping down on May 6 to take over the federal agency. ….

Deputy Commissioner Nomination

      From a press release:

U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) announced the Committee will hold a nomination hearing on Wednesday, October 29, 2025, at 10:00 AM ET to consider Arjun Mody to be Deputy Commissioner of Social Security …

     Mody has been the Senate Republican Conference staff director.  He’s also been a lobbyist and served on the Trump transition team,

I Suppose This Means That Trump Would Rather End Medicaid, Medicare And Social Security Than Negotiate With Democrats

      From Newsweek:

President Donald Trump warned Tuesday that if the Democrats don't approve funding, there are dangers to the future of Social Security and Medicare. 

Trump said at a press conference that when he asked Democrats for feedback on the funding bills, one said, "It means death." 

"There's nothing about death," Trump said. "Theirs is death because they're going to lose Medicaid, they're going to lose Social Security, they're going to lose Medicare, all of those things are going to be gone becausethe whole country would be bankrupt, and you're not going to have any kind of medical insurance." …

     This is Donald Trump’s Administration in a nutshell — governing through threats and intimidation while denying any responsibility for the consequences.  Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are just “Democrat”programs that he and his party won’t mind destroying? This is lunacy.

Workplace Flexibility During Shutdown At Issue

      From Government Executive:

The Social Security Administration is denying its employees working amid the ongoing government shutdown access to days off and other workplace flexibilities, even as some struggle to afford their commute to work, union officials say. 

Guidance from the Office of Personnel Management governing federal employees’ pay and benefits during appropriations lapses, last updated Sept. 28, stipulates that while scheduled leave is cancelled at the start of a government shutdown, agencies should grant excepted employees, who are forced to work without pay until funding is restored, access to episodic telework or be temporarily placed in a furlough status if they need time off. … 

But Jessica LaPointe, president of the American Federation of Government Employees Council 220, which represents employees at SSA’s field offices and teleservice centers, said the agency appears to be categorically denying requests for telework or time off, instead placing workers in absent without leave status. Employees placed in AWOL status will be denied backpay for the time they miss and carries the potential for discipline or termination. … 

Guidance from the Office of Personnel Management governing federal employees’ pay and benefits during appropriations lapses, last updated Sept. 28, stipulates that while scheduled leave is cancelled at the start of a government shutdown, agencies should grant excepted employees, who are forced to work without pay until funding is restored, access to episodic telework or be temporarily placed in a furlough status if they need time off. 

“An excepted employee may be excused from duty for intermittent periods during a shutdown furlough,” OPM wrote. “While excused from performing excepted duties, the employee will be placed in furlough status unless the employee elects to use paid leave . . . However, if an excepted employee needs to be absent from work for brief periods, agencies are encouraged to explore the use of workplace flexibilities such as alternative work schedules and telework to accommodate the employee’s need to be absent. If use of workplace flexibilities is not appropriate for the situation, excepted employees must be furloughed for any brief absence or allowed to request paid leave.” 

But Jessica LaPointe, president of the American Federation of Government Employees Council 220, which represents employees at SSA’s field offices and teleservice centers, said the agency appears to be categorically denying requests for telework or time off, instead placing workers in absent without leave status. Employees placed in AWOL status will be denied backpay for the time they miss and carries the potential for discipline or termination.
“This is notice that you have been placed on Absence without Leave (AWOL) for 8 hours . . . when you failed to report for duty,” stated a memorandum that one employee received, obtained by Government Executive. “You have been placed on AWOL because you were not on duty as scheduled and you were not on approved leave to cover the period of your absence. Although AWOL itself is not a disciplinary action, it may be used as the basis for disciplinary action . . . As I have reminded you, it is important that you come to work when scheduled, remain on the job, and perform the essential functions of your job.” 

In a statement, an SSA spokesperson contested AFGE’s allegations as “inaccurate.”
“SSA is following long-standing guidelines for how requests for episodic telework, annual leave and sick leave are handled,” they wrote. “There is also a process for employees to follow if they request to be placed on furlough status, which is unchanged. SSA offices remain open and continue to serve the public.” 

But that doesn’t track with what is happening across the agency, LaPointe said. The union has seen an increase in denial rates for episodic telework since the shutdown began, and she said management has added new requirements to requests from employees to be placed in a leave or furlough status. …

Office Closures

      From Newsweek:

 Several Social Security offices have been closed today amid the larger government shutdown. ...

In California, the Madera Social Security office is unable to provide in-person service until 1 p.m. local time.

Meanwhile, in Montana, the Havre office is only able to provide telephone assistance until further notice due to the shutdown.

New York is facing several disruptions, with the East Bronx location unable to provide in-person services until 10 a.m., and Canarsie and Corning locations only providing phone assistance until further notice.

The Pennsylvania office in Wilkes-Barre is only offering phone assistance on Monday, while Bloomsburg and Reading offices have generally reverted to phone service instead of any in-person options until further notice.

In South Carolina, the Spartanburg office will only be providing phone service on Monday, and the Dallas Fair Park office in Texas will be offering the same service instead of in-person capabilities.

In West Virginia, the Logan SSA office is only available by telephone.

In Wyoming, beneficiaries relying on the Cody office will need to use phone services until further notice. ...

     Some of these have to do with local conditions which might occur anytime. Some of these have to do with the reduction in staffing at Social Security. Some of these have to do with the government shutdown.  When people aren't being paid, they're not as enthusiastic about showing up for work when they're not feeling so well.  

Doing The Right Thing

     From the Washington Post:

Charles Borges, then chief data officer for the vast Social Security Administration, was alarmed last when he learned that members of Elon Musk’s U.S. DOGE Service had copied a mainframe database containing the personal information of hundreds of millions of Americans, including names, birthdays, addresses and more.

The discovery prompted Borges to file a whistleblower complaint in August, telling Congress and the Office of Special Counsel that the cloud server where the database was uploaded had little oversight and was vulnerable to attacks by bad actors. 

The result: He said the Trump administration’s reaction to his complaint caused him to feel isolated and subject to a hostile work environment, prompting him to resign and give up a decades-long government career and dream job. … 

Borges is not the only Social Security official to raise concerns about the safety of data under the U.S. DOGE Service, which was launched by billionaire Elon Musk to cut costs across the government. 

Former acting Social Security commissioner Leland Dudek — who was elevated to that role by the Trump administration after showing loyalty to DOGE — said in an interview that Borges’s worries, as documented in his whistleblower report, are both “appropriate” and “accurate.” Dudek, who said he is on paid administrative leave pending a full separation from Social Security, said the type of cloud server that DOGE used is not sufficiently protected for such personal information and has been a well-known problem for years. 

“That absolutely has been the problem with that environment since I’ve been with the agency, that it is too little secured,” Dudek said. Borges, he continued, is “absolutely right.” …

If Bisignano Signs Off On This, He’d Better Hope For A Pardon Before Trump Leaves Office

      From the Wall Street Journal:

It’s An Idea

      From the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:

The Social Security retirement and Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) trust funds are approaching insolvency, with both trust funds expected to be depleted in just seven years. Without action, retirees face an automatic 24 percent benefit cut in 2032, while Medicare hospital payments would be cut by 12 percent. Restoring solvency to these trust funds will require slowing benefit growth, lowering health care costs, increasing revenue, or some combination.

The Social Security and Medicare trust funds are financed primarily by a 15.3 percent payroll tax on wages, split evenly between worker and employer, with the 12.4 percent Social Security tax applied only to the first $176,100 of annual wages in 2025. Proposals to boost revenue often involve increasing the tax rate or the tax cap.

This Trust Fund Solutions Initiative white paper suggests a new alternative – replacing the employer side of the payroll tax with a flat Employer Compensation Tax (ECT) on all employer compensation costs.1 While workers would continue to pay payroll taxes, employers would instead pay an ECT on all wages (with no tax cap) and all fringe benefits such as employer-sponsored insurance and stock options.

Karen E. Smith at the Urban Institute modeled this proposal using the DYNASIM model.2 Using that analysis, replacing the employer payroll tax with an ECT would:

• Raise $2.5 trillion over a decade and 0.7 percent of GDP over 75 years.
• Close two-thirds of Social Security’s shortfall and half of Medicare’s gap.3
• Alternatively, close one-third of Social Security’s shortfall, one-eighth of Medicare’s shortfall, and fund a 1 percentage point cut in payroll taxes – improving solvency while reducing taxes for the bottom 60 percent of workers.
• Extend Social Security solvency by two decades to 2055 and modestly extend Medicare solvency – with further extension if combined with other reforms.
• Increase progressivity, generating revenue mainly from the highest earners.
• Support stronger economic growth than alternative revenue options.
• Improve horizontal equity, efficiency, and simplicity; slow health care cost growth; and avoid viability and revenue stability concerns of alternatives. …

Lawsuit Over Service Breakdowns

      From Fedscoop:

A nonprofit legal group is calling on the Social Security Administration to release records on recent internal changes and “customer service breakdowns,” alleging it has caused widespread service disruptions for millions of Americans under the Trump administration. 

In a lawsuit filed in a federal court in Maryland on Monday, Democracy Forward said SSA did not respond to multiple records requests for details on the agency’s workforce reductions, cuts to phone services and the elimination of customer service metrics on the agency website that took place this year. 

These changes, according to Democracy Forward, prompted longer wait times, payment delays and “confusion for beneficiaries in vulnerable situations,” the lawsuit stated. The group said it filed various Freedom of Information Act requests over the summer regarding these incidents, but SSA did not hand over determinations or release the records.  …

Another Thing The SSAB Did Before Closing Up Shop -- Trust Fund Buildings

     This is from a letter to the Chairs and Ranking Members of the Senate Finance Committee and House Social Security Subcommittee from the Social Security Advisory Board (SSAB) (footnote omitted):

In light of efforts to reduce the federal real property footprint, the Social Security Advisory Board (Board) writes to highlight a unique issue for the Social Security Administration (SSA) regarding property acquired with money from the Social Security trust funds.

The Board believes that any proceeds from the sale of trust fund acquired property should go to the trust funds. Trust fund dollars are for Social Security program purposes only and have been intentionally set apart from general revenues by Congress. The Board therefore encourages Congress to direct all revenue from the disposition of trust fund properties to the trust funds.

     By the way, I think that SSAB has closed its doors but I haven’t seen proof that it’s happened. 

COLA Announcement Pushed To October 24

      Newsweek reports that the announcement date for the 2025 Social Security Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) has been pushed back from October 15 to October 24.

The Absurdity Of It All

 

Image produced by ChatGPT

There’s Always A New Scam

      From a press release:

The Office of the Inspector General (OIG) for the Social Security Administration (SSA) is warning the public about a new government imposter scam. This scam comes in the form of an official-looking letter identified as a “certificate” on fake U.S. Supreme Court letterhead using forged signatures of U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor. This high-pressure scam urges individuals to cooperate with the named SSA official, pressuring them to send money or share personal information.

The scam letter is personally addressed to the recipient and claims they are a primary suspect in connection with legal proceedings and criminal charges. The letter may use the real name of an SSA executive and claim that the proceedings “are conducted with the oversight of Attorney General Raúl Torrez” of New Mexico. The letter further claims that according to findings from SSA and the incorrectly named “Drug Enforcement Agency,” the recipient may have been subjected to identity theft, noting that their Social Security number (SSN) has been compromised. The letter states that SSA will issue a new SSN. …

BLS Recalling Staff So Social Security COLA Can Be Computed

      From CNN:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is calling some staff back to work to prepare its closely watched inflation gauge, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, despite the government shutdown, a Trump administration official told CNN.

The latest CPI data was previously scheduled for release on October 15. It’s unclear whether the report will still be released next week or delayed amid the shutdown. The Trump official told CNN that the data would be published before November 1, since that is the deadline to publish the annual increase for Social Security payments. The September CPI data is needed to calculate that adjustment. …

A View Of The Future

      From the Washington Post:

Kinsley Kilpatrick put on a convincing show.

During visits to Atlanta VA Medical Center, the Iraq War veteran arrived in a wheelchair, claiming multiple sclerosis had paralyzed his arms and legs. By the time he turned 35, the onetime athlete said he could barely move from the neck down, leaving him dependent on others to eat, dress and bathe, according to court records.

Obligated to help a former soldier in need, the Department of Veterans Affairs began paying Kilpatrick $7,900 a month in tax-free disability benefits in 2015, the records show. The federal government also gave him $20,000 for a specially equipped Jeep Cherokee to make it easier for his wife to take him to medical appointments.

iClick these iconsto see documents and more detailed information.

The hoax lasted for three years and might have continued indefinitely, if not for a whistleblower who sent VA proof that Kilpatrick was lying: videos of the Army veteran backflipping on a trampoline, prancing around a sports field like a ballerina and swan diving into a playground ball pit. ...

    Why would I be posting this story about VA on the Social Security News blog? This sort of story gets planted when you want to cut a program. You could easily get the Post to do a similar article about Social Security disability and use it to justify making it harder to get on disability benefits and to stay on them. In fact, I imagine that's coming. 

    I can't say how common fraud is at VA but I'm sure that a few vets caught faking it doesn't mean that the program has lax standards. There must be well over a million vets drawing VA benefits. It's inevitable that there will be at least a few crooks among them. Coming up with a few cases like this one prove nothing about the overall program but can sway many members of the public and members of Congress.

Bisignano At IRS

        There are so many issues with Frank Bisignano's position as "CEO" of IRS. Let me list three that I know of:

• Bisignano is the 8th person to serve as head of the IRS in the eight and a half months that Trump has been back in the White House. The IRS can no longer carry out its core missions because it has fired a quarter of its employees. Why would anyone in their right mind want the job of CEO of such a disaster zone? And you thought that Social Security is a mess!
• The head of IRS is supposed to be the Commissioner of Internal Revenue, not the "CEO." It appears that the President is making up a title to get around submitting a new nomination for Commissioner of Internal Revenue.
• Why not submit a nomination? The nominee would face a confirmation hearing where he or she would have to answer questions Trump doesn't want answered, such as whether the nominee will continue illegally sharing data with ICE and whether the nominee will use the IRS to investigate the President's enemies. Also, the chaos at IRS would be a major topic.

For What It’s Worth

      For what it’s worth, the White House is apparently denying that it intends to make any changes in Social Security. 

Just When You Think Things Can’t Get Any More Absurd

      From The Hill:

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday announced the head of the Social Security Administration (SSA) would also serve as CEO of the IRS after the tax agency’s previous, Senate-confirmed leader was ousted.

Social Security Administration Commissioner Frank Bisignano will take on the additional role of CEO of the IRS, where he will oversee day-to-day operations. But Bessent will continue to serve as the acting IRS commissioner, giving him autonomy over the agency. …

Aggressive Action Against Disability Claimants Planned

      From the Washington Post:

The Trump administration is preparing a plan that will make it harder for older Americans to qualify for Social Security disability payments, part of an overhaul of the federal safety net for poor, older and disabled people that could result in hundreds of thousands of people losing benefits, according to people familiar with the plans.


Currently, the Social Security Administration evaluates disability claims by considering age, work experience and education to determine if a person can adjust to other types of work. Older applicants, typically over 50, have a better chance of qualifying because age is treated as a limitation in adapting to many jobs.


But now officials are considering eliminating age as a factor entirely or raising the threshold to age 60, according to three people familiar with the plans who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share private discussions. They also plan to modernize labor market data used to judge whether claimants can work, replacing an outdated jobs database that includes obsolete occupations like nut sorters and telephone quotation clerks, following a Washington Post investigation in 2022. …

“We felt that so many more jobs are now available to disabled people,” said Mark Warshawsky, who led work on the earlier proposed rule as the SSA’s deputy commissioner for retirement and disability policy during the first Trump administration. “The nature of work has changed.”

Warshawsky, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, predicted that while the new rule under consideration would allow the agency to turn away more older people, more people with mental disabilities are likely to be approved. … 

According to two former officials, starting next year the agency plans to develop a computer-generated database using the modern jobs data to determine which jobs, if any, someone seeking benefits could perform. Disability advocates say they worry that the database will be programmed to come up with a vast array of jobs, particularly if advancing age is no longer a limiting factor, and will end up denying benefits to tens of thousands of claimants every year. …

     As I’ve said recently, doing anything like this would be disastrous for its authors. The people planning this have no idea how radical it is.

October 10 Is Coming Soon

      The first paycheck that federal employees will miss due to the shutdown is apparently October 10. Will that be the whole check missing or just part of it?

Only Five Of Thirty People At Work

      From CBS News:

…  In Atlanta, some residents who tried to file critical paperwork at the Social Security office downtown say they're having a hard time ensuring they get their payments.

CBS News Atlanta saw countless people turned away by security on Thursday. A federal worker said the office is severely understaffed since employees aren't being paid to come to work. …

The office isn't closed, but a Social Security Administration spokesperson said they have reduced services. A federal worker said that only five out of 30 people who were supposed to be in the office came to work on Thursday. …

Again, Mr. Commissioner, What Are You Going To Do About These Payment Errors?

      From a recent report by Social Security’s Office of Inspector General:

The Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance program provides monthly benefits to retired and disabled workers and their dependents as well as the survivors of deceased workers. In general, to be entitled to benefits, a child of a retired, disabled, or deceased worker must: 1) be unmarried; 2) be under age 18, a full-time elementary or secondary school student under age 19, or have become disabled before age 22; and 3) meet certain relationship and dependency requirements. Generally, an SSA employee may appropriately deny a claim when the employee properly completes all necessary actions and determines the applicant has not established the claimant meets the requirements to be entitled to child’s insurance benefits. 

We reviewed a random sample of 100 claims from a population of 21,533 claims filed from January 2019 through July 2023 that SSA employees approved for benefits in July 2023 or earlier and a random sample of 100 claims from a population of 75,424 claims filed from January 2019 through July 2023 SSA employees did not approve for benefits as of July 2023. 

Of the 96,957 claims in our review, we estimate SSA employees correctly denied 37,712 (39 percent) and incorrectly denied 24,555 (25 percent). As a result of employee errors, SSA did not pay these beneficiaries approximately $92.2 million in benefits and delayed paying these beneficiaries approximately $87.7 million in benefits to which they were entitled. 

We could not conclude whether employees correctly denied the remaining 34,690 claims (36 percent). This includes an estimated 28,661 claims SSA employees denied before they appropriately completed all required actions; therefore, there was not enough information in SSA’s records to determine whether Agency employees appropriately denied the claims. …

     This might be tough for the Commissioner. I don’t think it can be solved by laying off employees or intimidating them or demanding they work harder.  It will take analysis of the difficulties in doing this work accurately, coming up with better workflow processes, coming up with better quality control processes and being honest with everyone about the workforce needed to do the job properly. The honesty part will be the hardest thing for this Administration. It’s easier to blame the “deep state” than to do the difficult work of governing. 

Using The Shutdown As An Excuse?

      I am hearing reports that some Social Security field offices in at least two states are refusing to deal with attorneys and others during the government shutdown. Of course, I’ve heard nothing suggesting this is authorized. I have a vague recollection that this happened in an earlier shutdown before field offices were told to knock it off.

BLS Operations To Suspend Due To Government Shutdown

      From the New York Times:

… The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the monthly jobs data, will “suspend all operations” if Congress and the president fail to reach a deal to extend funding for the federal government before a Tuesday midnight deadline, according to a contingency plan released by the Department of Labor. Data releases scheduled during a government shutdown “will not be released,” and data collection for future reports will cease, the memo said. …

     So, why does this matter for Social Security? The annual Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security would ordinarily be announced soon after the BLS report due this week. That will have to be delayed. We have until December for this, so there’s time. However, future COLAs could become unreliable due to the gap in BLS data collection. Is it even possible for them to ever catch up? Their staffing levels have also been cut.  I don’t think BLS was affected like this in prior government shutdowns. 

Shutdown Coming

   

  Take a look at Social Security’s final plan for the government shutdown almost certainly coming at midnight. 

     Best wishes to all affected. This is awful for everyone.

SSAB’s Last Day

      I thought that the Social Security Advisory Board (SSAB) was defunct, killed off by the Trump Administration, a few months ago but they’ve managed to hang on until the end of the federal fiscal year, today. While heading out the door they’ve issued a report on Improving Hiring Processes at State Disability Determination Services.

     Best wishes to the Board and staff.

Is A Replacement For The Grid Regs Coming?

      There are rumors that at least some portion of Social Security's upper level management wants to move ahead with a plan to replace the "grid regulations" that provide a framework for disability adjudication or at least to amend them. We can't know whether the Commissioner wants this or whether the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) will be willing to approve it. It would be a big move if it happens.

     In a sense, I'm happy to get some movement. The obsolescence of the Dictionary Of Occupational Titles (DOT) that formed the backbone of the grid regs has made some move inevitable. In a sense it's hard to understand how we've gotten this far without replacing the grid regs. On the other hand, everyone, and I do mean everyone, has been scared of what follows the grid regs. 

    The rumors about what would replace the grid regs -- something basically saying that if you can perform sedentary work you're not disabled regardless of your age, education or work experience or only if you're 55 or older -- fills me with great concern. However, there may be nuances in what's under consideration that we don't know.

    Here are some thoughts that occur to me.

I -- This Won't Happen Overnight 

    Under the Administrative Procedure Act there is a process to go through before new regulations can be adopted. The first step is for the agency to write up the proposed regs and their justification in a document called a Notice of Proposed Rule-Making or NPRM. This will be a major proposal so the NPRM should be a fairly lengthy, well reasoned document. Of course, the Trump Administration is known for slipshod work so who knows? 

    The Commissioner must approve the NPRM. He's a Social Security novice so this complicated proposal will be difficult for him to review. If there's anyone with any sense surrounding him at Social Security he's going to be warned that the NPRM would be important and controversial. The problem is that an environment of intimidation has been created. Can the Commissioner receive good advice in such an environment?

    Once the Commissioner approves the NPRM, it is sent to OMB, specifically to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) for approval. OIRA is the most important agency you’ve never heard of. I'd like to think that there are still enough professionals at OIRA to warn that the NPRM will be highly controversial and could have disastrous political results once it comes into effect but they may also be intimidated or ignored.

    If OMB approves the NPRM, it is published in the Federal Register and the public is allowed to comment on the proposal. There will be literally thousands of comments on something as controversial as this. These comments are all supposed to be read and analyzed. Dozens of different issues will be raised.  The agency must respond to each of these issues in the Federal Register if it is to finally adopt the proposed regs. The responses have to be thought out carefully since everything about these regs will be challenged in federal court. You can't publish one justification in the Federal Register and try another one in federal court. At least that would be a bad plan. Social Security's staff has been greatly thinned out, including its staff involved in rule-making. In the past I would have expected it to take over a year to deal with the comments made on such a major NPRM. I have no idea now. This thing could easily take longer than Trump has left in office. It would be amazing if this could be finished before the next Congress begins.

II -- It Isn't Over Once The NPRM Is Adopted

    Major regulations are difficult to implement. Once you start training staff on the new regs, questions come up that you never considered. There may be questions that you just finessed in the Federal Register without ever giving a real answer but you can’t finesse them anymore. The answers to these questions can have a major impact on the effect of the regs. The questions are likely to be technical enough that they will have to be answered by experienced staff rather than political appointees. Experienced staff will probably be a lot less hostile to claimants than the people who thought up the plan.

III — The Courts Get Their Say

    As I've said above, every facet of a replacement for the grid regs will be examined closely by the federal courts. You might think that the federal courts, or at least the Supreme Court, would be highly sympathetic to the Trump Administration but that's not something you can assume. Those who have taken Social Security cases to the federal courts can tell you that you can't predict how Social Security cases will be decided based upon which President nominated the judge or judges hearing the case.

    One huge issue presented by a plan to effectively remove consideration of age, education and work experience is that the statute specifically requires consideration of age, education and work experience. How do you get around that? You could say that "in our adjudicative experience" none of those factors matter. Social Security has long used that phrase "adjudicative experience" as an all purpose explanation for anything they want to do but for which they lack an explanation. I don't see how that will cut it here. There's too much at stake. Is there a strong argument for what is proposed?

    There's also the issue of the reliability of whatever occupational information system (OIS) Social Security puts forward as a basis for what they're doing.  The OIS in question has been developed in secret under the command of the Social Security Administration. There have been serious questions about Social Security's OIS plan for, how long has it been, 20+ years? It sounds exactly like the sort of thing the federal courts would view with deep suspicions.

IV. The Administration Should Be Wary Of Political Consequences 

    Anything that dramatically reduces the percentage of disability claimants approved for benefits would be extremely controversial. I'm one of the few people still around who can tell you that the most controversial thing the Reagan Administration did was to make it much more difficult to get on disability benefits and to stay on them once they were approved. If this Administration wants to proceed with an anti-claimant plan, it is poking a hornets nest, especially if it is dealing with a House of Representatives or Senate controlled by Democrats.

    There are reasons this didn't happen in the prior Trump Administration. 

V -- The Administration Should Be Wary Of Unintended Consequences 

    I was working for Social Security in a position then called staff attorney, writing decisions for an ALJ, when the grid regs came into effect in 1979. There was concern leading up to the effective date that the grid regs would greatly reduce the number of disability claims approved. I wondered what the effect would be. As I recall, I pulled the last 100 decisions I had drafted and looked to see what effect the grid regulations would have had on them. I found that it would have changed five decisions from a denial to an allowance with none going in the opposite direction. I didn't put much effort into spreading what I had found but I think word did get about and allayed some fears. As it turned out, my unscientific study was right on the money. The allowance rate did go up by about 5%.

    Trump Administration officials may want to be evil but do they know enough about Social Security to accomplish the evil they have in mind? Back in 1979 I'm pretty sure that higher Social Security officials expected lower allowance rates under the grid regs but that's not what they got. The devil is in the details and the details are the specialty of people like me, not the Commissioner and his inexperienced aides.

Probably Not Good News For The Commissioner

      From Government Executive:

When a member of the public has an issue accessing a federal benefit or service, they often contact their member of Congress for help. That assistance is called constituent casework. 

If an agency receives a lot of requests from lawmakers on behalf of their constituents about a specific issue, or if there are multiple constituent cases coming from the same area, that could be a signal to officials that there’s a problem. 

 But actually using this data to pinpoint systemic problems with agency operations is difficult because there’s no database to collect such information from across Capitol Hill offices. The House of Representatives, however, could soon change that. 

 House Digital Services, a tech team within the chamber’s support office, has been working since 2024 on Case Compass, which is a dashboard that will display anonymous constituent casework data from across participating Capitol Hill offices. On Sept. 9, the House unveiled a framework to aggregate such information. …

     The Commissioner probably isn’t interested in seeing a database tracking increases in complaints about his agency 

The DOGE Chaos

      From the New York Times (emphasis added):

At the height of its power, the Department of Government Efficiency was operating out of headquarters that had become a haphazard scene of armed guards, makeshift bedrooms, children’s toys and windows obscured with garbage bags, according to a new report from Senate Democrats that accuses President Trump’s federal cost-cutting operation of putting Americans’ data security at risk. 

Staff members for Senator Gary Peters of Michigan, the top Democrat on the Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee, reported that young DOGE aides living and working on the sixth floor of the General Services Administration building sat at workstations eight or 10 laptops deep, where they were able to operate on Starlink networks that could have allowed them to work without being tracked. … 

In one instance, the report cites whistle-blower disclosures alleging that Jon Koval, a former DOGE employee at the Social Security Administration, asked about the possibility of uploading data to the cloud so that it could be retrieved by the Department of Homeland Security, but was rebuffed. One whistle-blower also said that data from Social Security’s numerical identification system, called Numident, did show up at the Homeland Security Department in a strange format, suggesting that it was not shared via a normal interagency process. …

    And from the report itself:

... An internal SSA risk assessment determined that the likelihood of a data breach with “catastrophic adverse effect” is between 35 and 65 percent. ...

During agency site visits, staff observed each DOGE workspace cordoned off with armed guards, providing an unusual layer of protection to their activities. Staff were not provided clear reasons why this was needed. Beyond security, DOGE workspaces were either completely or largely empty as their staff were able to work remotely at their discretion (despite strict in-office requirements for regular federal employees, in many cases without adequate office space).  ...

Ending Improper Payments to Deceased People Act Passes In Senate

     From a press release:

The U.S. Senate unanimously passed Sens. John Kennedy (R-La.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and Ron Wyden’s (D-Ore.)’s Ending Improper Payments to Deceased People Act, which would save hard-earned taxpayer money by curbing erroneous payments to individuals who have passed away.  ...

The Ending Improper Payments to Deceased People Act would permanently amend the Social Security Act to allow the Social Security Administration to share the Death Master File—a record of deceased individuals—with the Treasury Department’s Do Not Pay system. This change would rein in the government’s ability to make improper payments to deceased people in the future. ...

    Are there some safeguards here? Doesn't this make it easier to cut off benefits to anyone the Trump Administration wishes? There are standards for the Death Master File. Are there any legal standards for the Treasury system? Maybe everyone voted for this because they halfway believed Elon Musk's lies about payments to deceased people. Who is actually going to be cut off benefits? Dead people or people the Trump Administration wants to punish without affording them due process?

"A Lot Of Us Are Medicated"

     The New York Times has a long piece on service delivery problems at the Social Security Administration. Below are some excerpts. Note that I haven't included excerpts talking about the experiences of actual people although those are quite interesting.

... Frontline workers, whose morale had already been low for years, say they are asked on a daily basis to do more with less.

“In my 24 years, I have never seen it so bad to the point that a lot of us are medicated,” said one Social Security technical expert who works in a field office in the Midwest and takes an anti-anxiety medication daily. She asked not to be identified because she didn’t want to jeopardize her position and scheduled early retirement. “We openly talk about it,” she said. “We joke about it, because what else can you do?”

The agency’s recent effort to reduce wait times for callers to the national 800 number has worsened their plight. ...

 “There is a tipping point, where you can’t do more unless you are going to cut corners and not do the work properly,” said Heather Hughes, a local union president in Raleigh, N.C. “We don’t want to do that. We know these are people and these are people’s lives and livelihoods.” ...

“The process to get a digital S.S.N. into the phone is one of my No. 1 priorities,” Andy Sriubas, who was recently appointed to lead the agency’s vast field operations, said on an internal call with agency staffers also reviewed by The Times. Mr. Sriubas was most recently an executive at Outfront Media, a billboard company, but said he worked with Mr. Bisignano at JPMorgan during the financial crisis. ...

Preliminary findings from a study by a group of academic researchers to be released in October said that access to services — while never easy — had worsened since early 2025, especially for that population.

“Respondents overwhelmingly reported that compounding administrative breakdowns — loss of staff with specialized knowledge, rapidly changing policies, significantly worse processing delays, more frequent errors with emails and faxes routinely lost — have made even basic tasks impossible,” said Katie Savin, the lead author and assistant professor at California State University, Sacramento. The results are “devastating consequences to claimants who’ve experienced hunger, eviction, and loss of health care as a result.” ...

Commissioner Bisignano has said the average wait time on the national 800 number had already been reduced to single digits during his first 100 days, down from 30 minutes last year.

But the metric being cited is actually the “average speed of answer,” which doesn’t include the time customers wait for a callback, an option the vast majority of callers use and that took roughly an hour, on average, in August. That statistic is no longer on the website, but it reflected improvements in July and August, just as more field workers were asked to work the phones.

Call wait times have been removed from the agency website, but internal agency logs reviewed by The Times show many callers are still lingering.

On Sept. 3, for example, the only time callers had a single-digit wait time was at 8 a.m. Later, by 5 p.m., the average wait had stretched to an hour and 18 minutes, and the longest a caller waited that day was more than three hours, according to internal agency data. ...

OK, Mr. Bisignano, You Want To Reduce Payment Errors, What Are You Going To Do About This?

      From Follow-up on Dually Entitled Beneficiaries and Family Maximum Provisions, a report by Social Security’s Inspector General:

 … This is a follow up to our 2014 audit of the Adjustment of Monthly Benefits Under the Family Maximum Provisions. For our current audit, we identified 23,603 Social Security records with dually entitled beneficiaries and at least 2 other beneficiaries who had a date of entitlement of May 2013 or later and were in current pay status as of May 2023. We selected a random sample of 225 records for review.  …

We estimate SSA correctly adjusted benefits in accordance with the family maximum provisions for 15,211 of the 23,603 wage earners’ records in our population (64 percent); however, SSA improperly paid approximately $114 million to spouses and children on 8,392 wage earners’ records (36 percent). …

Percentage Of Population On Social Security

From Visual Capitalist

Chief of Disability Adjudication Position Advertised

    Here are the job duties for the position of Chief of Disability Adjudication currently being advertised by Social Security:

The Chief of Disability Adjudication (DA) oversees an organization responsible for providing the basic framework and mechanisms through which individuals and organizations file for disability under Titles II, VIII, and XVI of the Social Security Act as amended, which includes initial applications and reconsideration requests whose decisions are rendered by the State Disability Determination Services (DDS). DA also provides the basic framework and mechanisms through which individuals and organizations who are dissatisfied with determinations affecting their rights to and amounts of benefits, or their participation in benefit Programs administered by the Agency under the Social Security Act, including initial disability determinations made by State agencies when requested by the claimant, may administratively appeal such determinations in accordance with the requirements of the Administrative Procedure and Social Security Acts.

The Chief is responsible for the following:

• Managing reviews and disability decisions on applications for disability under title II and title XVI on initial applications and reconsideration requests.
• Managing and administering the nationwide hearings process of SSA.
• Managing the Appeals Council (the final level of administrative review under the Administrative Procedure Act for claims filed under titles II, VIII, and XVI of the Social Security Act).
• Developing and implementing comprehensive workload management strategies for initial and reconsideration claims, hearings, and appeals filed under the Social Security Act.
• Managing employee services, performance management, and labor management and employee relations activities for DA nationwide.

Bad News Coming?

      From the Urban Institute:

SSA’s forthcoming regulation includes three major components:

• Replacing outdated occupational data: SSA plans to adopt the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Occupational Requirements Survey (ORS) to replace the obsolete Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT), a move with bipartisan support.
• Implementing data from ORS: SSA must make many decisions on how best to implement and interpret ORS data, such as determining whether sufficient jobs exist at various skill and exertional levels that will directly affect eligibility outcomes.
• Age as a Factor: SSA is considering changes to how age, education, and past work experience influence disability determinations. These changes would disproportionately affect older workers.

Estimated Impact:

• The anticipated regulation could reduce eligibility for new applicants to the SSDI program by as much as 20 percent overall, and up to 30 percent among older workers. The potential impact on the SSI program is unclear.
• A 10% reduction in SSDI eligibility could result in 500,000 people losing access over 10 years including 80,000 widows and children. An additional 250,000 beneficiaries could lose eligibility for part of the period. 

• A 10% reduction would reduce benefits by $82 billion, with ripple effects on Medicare and Medicaid eligibility. 

• Many denied older workers may claim early retirement benefits, reducing their lifetime income by up to 30%. …